Quick back story/info on me (@voliswell) is that I’m focused on quantitative-based market structure trading (and maybe some macro-overlays kinda…sorta…when they make sense...which they don’t right now). I’m also involved in software development. I’ve built and sold a couple SaaS companies and I’m now building another one (while also operating a prop trading shop). My prop shop started building apps for our own use in 2017. Those apps have since morphed into vigtec.io, which is an ecosystem of market indicators, options tools, live charts, prebuilt algos, etc. constructed to help you find your market edge and squeeze the juice from the market (we have a web and mobile version on iOS now that are beta). We use it ourselves every day and now other people can use it to as there is a free version for everyone. We’re actively working on it day in and day out as its still a work in progress and hope that we continue to get user feedback and it’s able to keep growing at the rate it has been. We’re ultimately getting to the place now where we’re allowing other people to build on top of the platform itself and make their own indicators and tools etc. to share with others to use. But enough about that, let me get to the point of this post.
We have a general thesis (and its A ‘THESIS’) about the current market structure and volatility dynamics that started in 2017. This thesis is that there are now only 2 regime cycles existent in the market that ping pong with back and forth with massive consequence:

1. Equity Nirvana
2. The Doom Loop

I’ll seek to address them here as a what/so what layout below.
What: Equity Nirvana Cycle
This is just an example of the larger Nirvana and Doom cycles (SPY - S&P 500 ETF)
These are prolonged periods of what feels like a constant “skullduggery-like” buy-side bid market structure action (bottom left to top right in charts) that have no price auction back and forth between buyers and sellers to discover fair value level by level in the market. These periods are hallmarked by suppressed volatility and non-existent selling action in equities that occur because of a combination (or all of) the following:

• Indiscriminate buying from passive indexation products in OTF (“one time frame” periods – which are the daily periods where passive funds rebalance their holdings based on their mandate…it is done by algos and not humans so it is indiscriminate)
• Stock buybacks (another form of vol suppression)
• Short-vol targeting via VIX, proxies, and futures
• Federal Reserve monetary policies promoting and encouraging vol suppression
• Short selling “phantom bans” (most free trading apps don’t promote/support selling short)
• Negative interest rates for savers, pushing yield seeking to the riskiest part of the curve (think boomers needing 5%) that should/would be in yield instruments buying tech stocks
• High-yield Junk debt nationalization (this is new as of April 2020)
• Free trading apps that promote options trading, of which, is predominantly call-buying activity
• An option market that’s larger than at any time in history (thanks to free trading apps) and is now overwhelming the underlying securities market
  • This call buying behavior ignites a positive gamma feedback loop in the sense that options dealers sell calls for securities and then must buy the underlying security to delta hedge their exposure for the calls (there’s a great deal of existing research on this effect)
  • There are findings that are exposing that there are more calls being sold than actual underlying securities available (in circulation), which effectively makes the gamma squeezes even more violent and hard to wrap your head around
• Price is regularly experiencing overnight gap/ramp/camp action from futures trading that creates massive fair value gaps (FVGs) in the regular trading hours indexes which isn’t explored by price auctions and is left behind in the price auction system (**these FVGs become ‘tag-targets’ for algorithmic trading systems when Doom Loops start)
• Until Doom Loops start, there are no price reversions to the mean (this is defined as “gorpy” action as it’s aesthetically just a wobbly upside drift) and typically price will remain over the bull/bear pivots and VPOC thresholds on daily time frames (never exhibiting bearish activity at all)

Here is another example of the Nirvana and Doom Cycles (DIA - Dow Jones Indust. ETF)
But don’t take my word for it. Seems that this is no longer a secret and it’s now encouraged by all to take advantage of easy money. Check out this Barron’s article from December 10, 2020.
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https://preview.redd.it/3v780hjmkm461.png?width=610&format=png&auto=webp&s=b374570f27c2eef921d9bcbea75d1cccc2c5464b
Although Equity Nirvana feels ‘oh-so-good when it hits your lips’ as Frank the Tank from the movie Old School says…it does have very uncomfortable side effects. It’s a lot like drugs in a sense. The euphoria is great but the come-down is brutal and you need more and more of it in order to sustain the high. The come down for Equity Nirvana is what we call ‘The Doom Loop’.
​
What: The Doom Loop
These are periods that are the exact opposite of Equity Nirvana. Doom Loops are exactly what they sound like...they feel like “utter merciless doom” for the longs that give no opportunity to exit. Doom Loops are periods of rampant realized volatility, indiscriminate selling, liquidation, and anywhere between 3-5 sigma intraday trading ranges that don’t stop for 3-4 weeks. These periods are hallmarked by wild index volatility, violent short squeezes, “good-collateral” indiscriminate liquidations, and cross-asset volatility:

• One-time frame (OTF) buying and selling for ETFs and Pensions which acts as a steroid effect in Equity Nirvana cycles inversely acts as a Molotov cocktail in Doom Loops. OTFs are the indiscriminate algorithmic buying in the specific periods each day during Nirvana. They’re equally (and logically) indiscriminate in their selling in the daily OTF window during doom loops, which is why during these times you see mass liquidations from 2:48-4:00PM ET.
• Options markets have overtaken the securities markets, so the flows in options drive everything. Therefore, the same positive feedback loop in options flips on the downside. Although retail rarely stops buying calls, it’s the institutions via index ETFs that flip during a Doom Loop and this is what causes the VIX to spike as (puts overwhelm calls).
• The VIX spike nukes the volatility suppression crowd. When they are torched, they subsequently have to cover thus providing fuel for higher VIX extensions
• Higher VIX causes many VIX-attached derivative overlays to be readjusted, rebalanced, or worse, liquidated.
• VIX attached derivatives as well as regular derivatives are also normally attached to some futures concoction in many ETF/ETN products. Therefore, as the derivatives are readjusted, rebalanced, or worse, liquidated, the futures markets are hit with volatility and create large overnight gaps down as global intertwined markets react in a domino fashion to the selling during the U.S. RTH sessions.
• With the options market, you add fuel to the already lit fire. Gamma exposure (GEX in this environment flips as the trading ranges expand. During the Nirvana cycle, GEX = buy the dip and sell the rip as retail/institutions buy calls and then sell them to rotate further out or collect profits. During the Doom cycle, GEX = sell into weakness and buy into strength as the dealers rebalance delta exposure as the put buying/selling overtakes the call buying, which exacerbates intraday volatility even further. Think of this as the gas on an already lit fire.
• Pensions and institution thresholds get tested/breached. Most large institutions and pensions have thresholds that must be adhered to per their prospectus/mandate. When these levels are hit, even more selling comes into the marketplace as they liquidate as required — again indiscriminately. This also dramatically impacts things such as high-yield junk bonds. `
• Flight to the USD: In times of illiquidity, everyone flocks to collateral. Gold is sold for margin calls. Treasuries are liquidated for margin calls. (*FWIW Bitcoin isn’t collateral. It’s a spec instrument so it’s always liquidated ahead of these cycles as it’s usually a canary of excess liquidity running dry.) Ultra-Short Duration Bonds are often sold for margin calls if required (even CDs can see liquidation). What does everyone want in times of illiquidity? Well… liquidity. So, there’s a flight to safety in the USD that exacerbates index volatility in a similar way that the options market does. It’s more fuel to the fire in a Doom Loop.
• Oh…and fear. Naturally fear is an exponentially more powerful emotion than greed. Humans, although quite a decreased proportion of the overall market than they once were compared to the machines, still do drive a great deal of market action (especially at the retail and HF level). These Doom Loops erase months’ worth of gains in several weeks filling FVG after FVG that were left behind to the downside in a doom vortex (e.g., in the case of March 2020 over 3 years’ worth of gains were lost). No matter what the buy-n-hold crowd says, to hold one’s water in these Doom Loops is easier said than done.

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Here is the VIX proxy (VXX) showing vol suppression (Nirvana) and then Spikes (Doom)
Ultimately, the Doom Loop is just the exact equal and opposite reaction to the Equity Nirvana cycle. It becomes extremely violent because of the indiscriminate (throw it all out) nature of the algorithmic market that exists and the fact that the vol suppression schemas are so widely used and institutionally accepted (and they get blowtorched, squeezed, and have to cover which exacerbates volatility velocity)…then pour on that the gasoline that comes from the organic (and intended/unintended) growth of the options market because of the free trading apps and you get a market dumpster fire that rages out of control.
The Fed and the Treasury, in my opinion, are keenly aware of this cycle and adamantly try to avoid the shift in regimes from Nirvana to Doom at all costs because it’s becoming harder and harder to stop the Doom Cycles without resorting to exponentially more outlandish monetary and fiscal policy that continually borderlines the surreal/bizarre each time to calm the fire (which is the first mission of the Fed ‘PUT’). For example, in April of this year they just simply said ‘fuck it’ and came out and bought the HYG ETF directly and are now the largest holder of it because had they not, the Doom Cycle in motion at that time would’ve tested the 1880 ES level, which could’ve put the entire financial system in a cannibalistic spiral.
So What: Why should I care?
As you can see from the above text and charts, there’s no mention of EBITDA, P/E, FCF, P/R, rotations, NAV, MPT, IPO, SPAC, etc. Why? Because they don’t really carry much merit in a world that is driven by periods of excess liquidity (Equity Nirvana) vs. periods of an absence of liquidity (Doom Loops).
When products are indiscriminately bought in a Nirvana cycle (and it’s simply not logical to assess real world measurements to indiscriminate machine purchasing .exe programs) then there’s no measurement/analysis necessary other than “is there liquidity or the perception of excess liquidity at this time” (delivered via the mechanism of the Fed put). Hence the ‘stonks always go up’ memes and statements. Why? Because in a sense, when there’s excess liquidity, based on the staples of the Equity Nirvana cycle, they will…simply go up. Inversely, when there’s a point/period where the liquidity is insufficient, the Doom Loop starts to eat the markets and the hunt for real liquidity is on (which is denominated in $USD/cash – hence why the $USD will not be going to zero anytime soon) and this is done level by level to the downside.
So, is it as simple of an answer as whether the Fed and Treasury have supplied the markets with enough excess liquidity to ignite and ride the Nirvana Cycle? Not so fast. It’s not. It’s arguable to say that the Fed’s mandate now is vol suppression and ensuring that there’s excess liquidity. But ultimately the market is simply too dynamic and to passive/automated for this to be the case. It’s not that the Fed pulled the liquidity from the markets in February 2018, December 2018, or March 2020. That wasn’t the case. It was that the market simply became an ouroboros – it started to consume itself. In each case so far, the Fed induced excess (each new Nirvana cycle) became so great that the market collapsed from a lack of liquidity availability at the elevated levels to sustain higher prices (in effect the market becomes only sustainable by the ‘greater fool’ theory). This kicks off the Doom Loop and as the velocity gets going, the snake begins to eat itself starting with the tail.
Each time the Fed and Treasury have to come back with a liquidity floor “PUT” even more baffling/bizarre than the last cycle, which ultimately initiates a new Nirvana cycle and…rinse and repeat. This time, it appears that we’re inching potentially closer to this overall Nirvana/Doom regime shift cycle conclusion that appears to have started in early 2017 here in early 2021, but that’s just conjecture…because theoretically it can continue as long as there’s belief in the latest concoction of the floor “PUT” that’s thrown under the market – even if they are surreal.
What does all this really mean at the end of the day? Well, everything…or nothing. I’m just all about knowing the game that I’m playing personally. Here’s why I say that with this little example as it gives you an idea of just how volatile this regime shifting has become and how old MPT models can’t function while these regimes exist (and these are just rough approximations so relax):
Here’s a buy and hold scenario if you placed $ in the SPY in early 2017
- Up 20% by Jan 2018
- Up 3-4% after XIV implosion in Feb 2018 (15% drop)
- Up 25% in Sept 2018
- Down 5% by Christmas Eve 2018 (30% drop)
- Up 40% by early 2020
- Down almost 10% by mid-March 2020 (50% drop)
- Up 55% by end of 2020
Reaching for your vomit bag yet? This isn’t just in SPY (which should historically be a moderately volatile, but not like this…this resembles an ICO or pot or junior mining stock). If you overlay this same time period on other assets like banks, semis, small caps, credit, etc., they’re shockingly even more exacerbated.
It’s imperative to realize at this stage of “investing” that you’re not playing a game of “investing.” You’re playing a game of “liquidity” and to win you need to understand and identify the regimes. If you do this well, you can dampen the volatility to your portfolios and also outperform more easily.
In the next post, I’ll discuss tools and strategies to identify the regime cycles and then some thoughts around trading strategies (which at the end of the day will always be your own). Stay tuned and always watch your six.
Parting shot…why I am not a ‘macro’ analyst? Look at this…macro made sense until end of 2017. You can say it’s well, bifurcated from the markets…(and I won’t waste your time by showing you 20 more just like this because all the macro charts of global economics change at the end of 2017/beginning of 2018).
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https://preview.redd.it/xhviqlgjlm461.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a821b1feaa156a3a9daf0445d0c9197ed989776

Hello, you may know me from DD posts about IVZ and 3DP. I'm still heavily in these. But today I bring you SBW.
Ok for real, this might be the laziest DD you've read because it was copy pasted direct from hotcopper. But it will also be the best DD you've read (no offence to u/bigjimbeef recent DD on this but he's always drunk and while his DD did get me interested in this, I think maybe some people didn't take his post seriously because the post read like he had a beer in one hand and his dick in the other).
But I've been thinking lately... wouldn't it be nice if I could, for once, jump on a stock, before it rockets? Like... Every stock I've been in so far has holders who are already 10 bagging. How do they find these stocks and how can I become one of them?
Well, here is your chance. Full disclosure, I'm in at 26.5c, closing price today is 24.5c. It IPOd at 35c so we are still at bargain prices. No rocket yet. If you can think of a reason not to buy, please say so, before I take a larger position tmw morning, as I am trying to keep myself from getting overly keen on yet another stock but so far I can't find a good reason to put money anywhere else.
Copy pasta below:
I thought it was about time that I made the “Ultimate Guide to SBW” and consolidated months of research and analysis into one comprehensive post. Then we can add bits to it from there as more positive news develops.
Let us start with capital structure.
Capital Structure and Why This Is Important!
There are currently 139 million shares on issue, sitting at a price of 32 cents.
This gives a Market Capitalization of approximately ~45 million AUD.
Keep this in mind when we discuss partners and peers later - it’s arguably a more important metric than share price.
The Top 20 shareholders of SBW (which includes key management as the Top 2 holders) have about 90% of the stock on issue. The interests of management are well-aligned with shareholders.
What does this mean in plain English? It means management are extremely incentivized to perform, and are not just idly sitting by collecting an easy paycheck like so many other ASX companies. They have as much at stake as you do! Probably more.
The Core Business
The core business is a profitable operation which has been selling weighing systems to both retail and healthcare sectors – with reliable recurring revenue from customers including, but not limited to, household names like Toshiba and Fujitsu.
SBW have a combination of weighing + artificial intelligence + advanced mathematics which cannot be easily duplicated. The company was first founded in 1971 and was one of the first to shift from mechanical to digital weighing and ultra-thin IoT load sensors.
If you are interested in reading up on some of their patents, please see this link:
https://patents.justia.com/search?q=Shekel scales
I found 11 separate patents here, which are probably not an exhaustive list, but ranging from weighing vehicles in motion, to load cell devices (this is the flagship technology), point of sale apparatus and infant weight systems (for their medical customers)
SBW's three main technology pillars, including patented ultra-thin high precision load sensors, can distinguish between Coke, Fanta & Pepsi - even if they are all in 1.5 litre bottles!
The Hitachi Project (Hitachi’s Market Cap = roughly ~33 billion USD at time of writing, SBW = ~45 million AUD)
http://hlds.co.jp/product-eng/1079
[Translated from Japanese] Hitachi-LG Data Storage. Inc. exhibited in “NRF 2020 Retail’s Big Show” which took place at Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in New York from 1/12-1/14/2020, where Unmanned Store solution using 3D LiDAR(TOF) was jointly exhibited with Hitachi America, Hitachi Vantara, and Shekel Brainweigh (Israel).
Some quotes I found from Hitachi themselves
“Micro-markets are the fastest growing segment of convenience shopping. We see them exploding in high traffic areas, such as workplaces, campuses, train stations and airports,” said Hideki Hayashi, Sales and Marketing Manager, Hitachi EU Ltd.
“Deploying the joint Shekel-Hitachi solution enables retailers and micro-market operators to provide the 24/7 frictionless shopping experience consumers demand without sacrificing accuracy, performance or profitability.”
“As the manager responsible for LiDAR products in EMEA markets, I consider the R&D and commercial collaboration with Shekel Brainweigh to be the perfect partnership as we both bring our respective capabilities to develop a seamless consumer shopping experience. We are extremely pleased to collaborate with Shekel Brainweigh, which we believe is the best digital weighing technology developer globally."
“The collaboration builds on our expertise in optical motion sensors, together with Shekel’s advanced Product Aware Technology, and further strengthens our commitment to overcome the challenges, and address the significant opportunities, in global retail store automation.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-uxk2Ycoqw
The Open Retail Initiative
https://www.lfedge.org/2020/02/13/n...ensor-fusion-for-intelligent-loss-prevention/
For the one-year anniversary of ORI, six initiative members Edgify, Flooid, Shekel and LF Edge members HP, IOTech and Intel inspired by the initiative, worked together on a demo for the Intel booth that showcased the value of Real Time Sensor Fusion for a loss prevention use case at self-checkout. The retail environment has become incredibly complex. The latest technologies enable data-driven experiences and unlock business value like never before, yet there is still a lack of interoperability making it difficult for retailers to deploy integrated solutions with speed and ease. The demo illustrates how integration roadblocks can be a thing of the past.
The demo pulls together real time data through the EdgeX middleware from different common systems including POS real-time transaction log, CV-based object detection, scale solution, and RFID, and data fusion—all in a single pane of glass.
Here are some PowerPoint slides of IBM, Intel & Hewlett-Packard talking about the joint solution
https://wiki.edgexfoundry.org/downl...amp;modificationDate=1579904283000&api=v2
The Fast Track Project
https://www.edgify.ai/retail/
Reduce time at till and selection at self-checkout by up to 98%. Computer vision-based product recognition, that continuously learns directly on the till, so the accuracy of the detection always increases.
Friction-less stores are great in theory but extremely complicated to scale in practice. Our edge training solution makes autonomous stores scalable, by having all the AI train directly on the camera. No infrastructure costs and no added complications.
Reduce incorrect selections by up to 90%. Either intentional or unintentional, use computer vision that is trained directly on the SCO itself to reduce loss by more than half!
No barcodes, no packaging, no worries. Simple USB cameras can detect the produce at close to 100% accuracy. Use as a decision support for cashiers, or to avoid consumers having to go through long and confusing menus.
https://www.edgify.ai/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Retail_Intro.pdf
https://twitter.com/Edgify_AI/status/1277859718413930505
https://twitter.com/Edgify_AI/status/1230534216133332997
Shekel’s Visual Recognition Platform embedded with Edgify’s machine-learning training framework is the world’s first cloudless software that automatically recognises products, including fresh produce, at a retail self-checkout.
This ~45 million AUD Market Cap company allows retailers to potentially bypass expensive cloud services from Microsoft, Google and Amazon.
Sending data to the cloud is a very costly process with the Google Cloud Platform charging 1,000 stores more than US$7.2 million in cloud computing power per annum.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrpZ56IdFtg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpqwqQ1tJ4A
You can see the Shekel system 35 seconds in.
Patnership with Madix (2nd Largest Retail Shelves Manufacturer in NA)
https://www.bloomberg.com/press-rel...ade-product-aware-cabinets-to-retail-industry
NEW YORK -- January 13, 2020
Madix Inc., the second largest retail shelves manufacturer in North America, and Shekel Brainweigh Ltd. (ASX: SBW), the leader in advanced weighing technology, today announced the availability of ready-made Product Aware shelves and solutions for the retail industry.
“By seamlessly integrating Product Aware shelves into our hardware, our customers are armed with accessible data giving them reliable inventory visibility and assisting them in addressing over-stock and out-of-stock problems, as well as better control over shrinkage” said Steve Kramer, VP Sales, Madix.
“For the retail industry, this is a defined competitive edge that promotes the opportunity to increase profitability.”
Conclusion
So, remember - the core scales business is what drives the revenue we see today, but the innovation division is where the real potential resides. That will take a few more months/years to play out. I think most people are buying for the fully autonomous frictionless retail technology which comes with a huge addressable market. That’s still being undervalued in my humble opinion.
Considering there are quite a few ASX-listed tech companies with no revenue and over 100 million market cap (some even @ 1 billion market cap right now…
I don’t see why SBW couldn’t move past ~45m market cap in the near future.
Now if you read all this - links included- I commend you for your diligence. It should be obvious now that the Capsule (in partnership with Hitachi) is the “crown jewel” or “holy grail” of retail disruption technology plays (look at the success of Amazon GO for example).
So you are probably thinking: "This sounds great @verce but it’s all just aspirational and hypothetical. When will it be put into operation?" Well I’m glad you asked. The answer might surprise you. And it may be sooner than you think.
The SBW Half Year Report from 31 August 2020 had a little snippet that I think a lot of people missed. Specifically, the following text:
“Flagship micro-market project Capsule is in an advanced stage of pilot in Europe, and expected to be open to the public for trial in the second half of 2020.”
Now you are probably wondering: "That’s great but what if it’s just some obscure insignificant corner store somewhere?" Again, the answer may surprise you, and requires a little digging.
Enter Groupe Casino. A historic player in French retailing since 1898, the Casino Group is one of the world leaders in food retailing with more than 12,200 stores worldwide, located in France, Latin America and the Indian Ocean and a turnover of 37.8 billion euro.
In their Annual Report this year, they mentioned an exciting new disruptive project they were working on with a relatively obscure company.
https://www.groupe-casino.fwp-content/uploads/2020/06/RapportActivite_Casino_2019_EN.pdf
And we have some commentary from SBW featured on Page 42-43 of their Annual Report plugging "the first fully autonomous store in Europe". I'll leave it to readers to determine the significance of being mentioned in the Annual Report of a leading mass-market retail group with billions of Euro in revenue.
The same group who claim to be the source of many innovations such as the first distributor's brand in 1901, the first self-service store in 1948 or even the display of a sell-by date on consumer products in 1959. They are always pushing the boundaries of innovation, and it's an exciting partner to have.
It’s also worth keeping in mind that issuing shares are not the only mechanism by which to raise money. And that a placement at a premium to a sophisticated cornerstone investor can yield great results. Kind of like what happened with 3DP and IHR.
If I was them, I’d be asking Hitachi to chip in.
SBW also have the luxury of generating enough revenue (we are talking USD millions) in 2H20 from the core scales division, that a capital raising may not actually be necessary at this point in time. So they can wait for a better outcome.
Source: “Post 30 June 2020, the business has seen a resurgence of orders for Shekel’s products, resulting in July 2020 sales exceeding July 2019 sales by approximately 18%.”
The final thing I would like to add (if you have in fact read my other two posts which are worth reading) is coming to an appropriate valuation. This is the tricky part, especially with microcap stocks which are valued on their future potential.
We do know that there are medium to high barriers to entry, and that SBW have accumulated a competitive edge with their technology iterated over several decades, with certain patents in place.
We also know that the opportunity is global in scope with a huge total addressable market (TAM) - and that traditional retail is ripe for disruption.
Remember when there were more human checkout lanes at supermarkets than self-checkout? Now it's the other way around. We are even starting to see self-checkout in Bunnings. The trend for autonomous and friction-less shopping - what some term "Grab & Go" - was inevitable. And coronavirus has only accelerated this trend.
https://www.ibtimes.com/5-tech-tren...-end-year-result-coronavirus-pandemic-3011819
5 Tech Trends Expected To Shape Retail Through The End Of The Year As Result Of The Coronavirus Pandemic
“Retailers and brands will need to collaborate more than ever with technology startups to futureproof their businesses and be better equipped to meet fast-changing consumer demand and behavior,” Coresight said.
Coresight reported the pandemic has piqued consumer interest in cashierless models.
Technology firm Shekel Brainweigh said 87% of respondents to its global consumer survey indicated they would choose stores with self-checkout over those with only cashier lines.
So if you ask me, when you consider all the different technology projects SBW are working on - most of which we now know are "close to commercialisation*" - is 45m AUD market cap really fair value for something that has the potential to roll out globally? I personally think it is still undervalued, but the market will eventually decide one way or the other.
Even at 70 cents per share, the implied market cap with only 139 million shares on issue is about ~97 million AUD. Which is still less than 100m. And still quite low when you compare SBW's proven technology and revenue to a lot of unproven technology companies with no real customers whatsoever. And extremely low when you compare SBW's market cap to their collaborative partner Hitachi (ranked 38th in the 2012 Fortune Global 500).
Even at 32 cents as it currently stands, we are still below the IPO price when SBW first listed at 35 cents per share. How does that make any sense?

Overview

The CCP issues five year plans to help gather the nation into a trajectory of the future which will bring prosperity and wellbeing to all. These moments of National focus make China able to truly leap forward, and nothing exemplifies that as much as the twenty year journey to become the world's second superpower from our Y2K context of having an economy still smaller than Italy's. Now, China is the engine of global growth and global pandemics, and Chinese policy sets the pace of global affairs like never before.
Xi Jinping's Fourteenth Five Year Plan spells out how the CCP will continue that trajectory, with the broad outline being the full transition from being a nation defined as "the World's Workshop" to being a sophisticated tertiary and quarterniary Economy, driving global innovation, and shedding the factory landscape, little by little.
 

XIV Five Year Plan

 

1.Industry 4.0 行业四

 
Industry 4.0 is the subset of the fourth industrial revolution that concerns industry. This will concern areas of the Nation which are not normally classified as an industry, such as smart cities. Industry 4.0 will see Chinese factories have machines which are augmented with wireless connectivity and sensors, connected to a system that can visualise the entire production line and make decisions on its own.
This component will steer the national economy towards automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies and processes which include cyber-physical systems (CPS), the internet of things (IoT), industrial internet of things (IIOT), cloud computing, cognitive computing and artificial intelligence.
Industry 4.0 will comprise the following trajectories for manufacturing and industrial production:

• Smart manufacturing
• Smart factories
• Lights out (manufacturing) also known as dark factories
• Industrial internet of things also called internet of things for manufacturing.

Within modular structured smart factories, cyber-physical systems monitor physical processes, create a virtual copy of the physical world and make decentralized decisions. Over the Internet of Things, cyber-physical systems communicate and cooperate with each other and with humans in real-time both internally and across organizational services offered and used by participants of the value chain. The correlation of the speed of technological development and, as a result, socio-economic and infrastructural transformations with human life allow us to state a qualitative leap in the speed of development, which marks a transition to a new time era.
 

2."Green China" 绿色中国

 

Green China Part 1

 
Chinese production of certain Green technologies - solar panels and wind turbines, for instance, is already going at a considerable speed. Yet, with the exception of the Coronavirus lockdown, China is still too polluted, too given over to wasteland, and too careless with our portion of the world's exceptional wildlife species. Green China will encompass new efforts to combat climate change, and pollution, but also nurture Chinese green spaces, in a manner not seen in some parts of China for decades.
The industrial and collective componants of Green China will focus on empowering large Corporations within China to target key serctors in Green and sustainable technologies, so that output and productivity remain mated to our goals and outcomes. These will be an adaptation of our Made in China 2025 goals which formed the Spine of this Five Year Plan. These key industrial players will solicit additional international partners, to ensure that Chinese capacity and investment marries the global need and desire for thiese specifics. The key industrial players in Green China will be:

• Baidu (AI, autonomous vehicles)
• Alibaba (e-commerce)
• Tencent (e-commerce)
• Megvii (AI)
• DJI) (AI, drones)
• BAIC (new energy vehicles)
• Geely (new energy vehicles)
• BYD (new energy vehicles)
• Huawei (semiconductors, telecommunications especially 5G, and consumer electronics)
• BBK Electronics (consumer electronics)
• Xiaomi (consumer electronics)
• Aviation Industry Corporation of China (aerospace)
• CRRC (rail)
• [Sinopharm](en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_National_Pharmaceutical_Group) (medicine)

 
These robust industrial focii will have to be joined to an overall national strategy that targets key areas of growth beyond 2021, making domestic production of those things a muych larger proportion of our consumption:
 
Selected Industry| 2021 |2027 Mobile Phone Chips| 34% |45% Industrial Robotics| 50% |75% Aerospace| 7% |15% Maritime Components| 60% |80% Renewable Energy Equipment| 10% |80% Agricultural Vehicles| 30% |60% Medical Devices| 50% |80% Basic Manufacturing Components| 40% |80%
 

Green China Part 2

 
The second aspect to Green China in #14FYP builds on the past Five Year Plan, which encouraged and stimulated "Everyone is an entrepreneur, creativity of the masses (大众创业，万众创新)". In this, families and homeowners will be led to cultivate green spaces in and around their homes, to ensure that our colossal cities to not remain endless seas of concrete, but instead become places of peace and vitality. The Party will augment tis by deliberately building more Green Spaces in the cities, and devoting large swathes of the land around them to non-harvested forests, parkland, and other natural reserves. Teams of gardeners and foresters will revivify the Chinese noble tradition of cultivating living things, and trees, edible plants, flowers, and birdong, will become a new soundtrack in Chinese cities.
The harmony between the needs of Chinese people and families, and those of the State, is a typically Chinese elegance, and further work will be done to ensure the creation of "Moderately prosperous society 小康社会", building a thriving middle class. Bridging welfare gaps between poorer pockets of rural and urban areas, with the stratospheric wealth of the City Centres, is an important componant of Green China. Stimulating domestic demand is key to this, and for that, Chinese people must have more access to capital and resources. In the spirit of Green China, this will turn neighbourhoods into havens of propserity and wellbeing. Thus, "Green=Green", and we will hopefully live to see the death of an attitude that suggests Green means that growth and profit have to die.
 

3."Economy needs a Rule of Law" (建构法制经济)

 
In combination with the privatization of economic activity within China, the government has begun to seek measure to address the structural imbalances in the national financial system. During the proceeding economic boom, capital flow has been disproportionately skewed towards SOEs, while micro, small, and medium enterprises have significantly less access. Additionally, low lending rates have contributed to excessive investment and high capital intensity, particularly in the wake of the recent financial crisis. Notably, the government's prominent and important role in national credit allocation at the central and provincial levels has led to the accumulation of liabilities not easily quantified, owing to limitations on monitoring, data collection, and governmental data exchange.
These issues will eventually lead to glaring inefficiencies and slowdowns in the national financial system, preventing the system as a whole from servicing an increasingly dynamic, sophisticated, internationally integrated economy driven by increased marketization. At the same time, globalization of Chinese firms and market capitalization of a growing middle class will begin to stress the financial system, potentially leading to exacerbation of these problems, including liquidity of capital in the next decade as the economy cools. To address these issues, the reforms must comprehensively build the foundation of a balanced, sound, and safe financial system able to meet these growing needs.
A critical priority that will be tackled first is the issue of the government controlled interest rate. Gradually, the PBOC will begin to implement greater flexibility of interest rates, which base their conditions off carefully considered market factors in the credit system, rather than political policy; for example, the central bank be given a high degree of autonomy to begin using these flexible rates to manage liquidity, rather than the previous reliance on credit ceilings.
Flexible interest rates from an autonomously controlled central bank will pave the way for credit-controlled financial decisions, relying on financial principles and analysis, precipitating a comprehensive overhaul of governance and organizations. Specifically, in state-owned financial institutions, state ownership functions, agencies, and practices will be reviewed, using lessons from examples of international best practice and failures. In addition, efforts will be made to further diversify the ownership structure in state-owned banks and further reduce the shares held by the state.
To address the under regulation systematic in the politically motivated financial market, the government has laid out a series of measures to strengthen the independence of regulators over the next decade. Staffing, funding, enforcement powers and resolution discretion will be gradually increased regional and provincial level institutions. Limits will be placed on emergency liquidity support to solvent banks facing short term liquidity problems - a common politically motivated play in the past. Standing facilities will begin to operate automatically to provide liquidity support to all domestically incorporated institutions, with the establishment of clear legal guidelines to govern and limit the use of fiscal resources in these instances.
The government will also facilitate the establishment of an efficient legal framework, including requirements of higher standards of disclosure, auditing, and accounting. Structural reforms will begin to streamline the court system to deal with troubled or insolvent banks and firms, both private and public, in a timely fashion. This framework will also include a measure to deal with IPOs, shifting from a merit based approval system to a fully disclosed and legal approach. Finally, a financial commission has been established to provide the outline and implementation of a small debtor deposit insurance scheme.
 

4.Age Wave 年龄波

 
China is set to experience a demographic transition unseen in modern history precipitated by three decades of restrictive population control. In 1975, there were six children in the nation for every one elderly citizen; by 2035, current trends indicate there will be two elders for every one child - a stunning reversal. Indeed, from the current year until 2035, Chinese authorities project that a contraction of 79 million working age adults in the workforce will begin to profoundly change the economy, and by 2050, 438 million Chinese will be elderly. The challenge facing the government is to confront the "age wave" of coming citizens, which rivals that of any developed nation, with undeveloped resources, insulating the economy and society from stress brought about during the transition.
The government has begun to confront this problem head on. Underscoring the seriousness with which Party members view the challenge, Secretary Jinping recently attended the 17th China International Conference on Insurance and Risk Management at Grand Link Hotel in Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang, a first in his career at the head of the party. While there, he pressed insurance firms to meet the demands of the coming social paradigm shift, saying "Unless China prepares for the coming challenges, a retirement crisis of immense proportions looms - just over the horizon."
To meet the challenge, China has begun to prepare a radical overhaul of the retirement system, which itself will realize enormous long term benefits, with coverage that is broad and benefits that are affordable and adequate to the average senior. The government has mandated a "poverty-free floor", where the engineering of the system will include a universal boundary of protection covering all Chinese elders, whether they participate or not. Above the minimum boundary, China will begin implementing expanded retirement savings coverage, transforming the system currently in place into a national system of adequately funded personal accounts with strict public regulation and directed by private investment.
 

Part 1: Reforming the Basic Pension System

 
As it currently stands, China operates a mandatory "basic pension system" for urban workers, created to replace the SOE system of the planned economy's early days. The system consists of a pay-as-you-go benefit scheme and a personal retirement account, and has been intended to cover the entirety of the rapidly urbanized workforce. However, current projections show that coverage is not universal, but instead sits at 65% and is highly concentrated among workers at SOEs. Structural issues also plague the current system, including large amounts of inherited unfunded liabilities from the breakup or mergers of SOEs, low rates of return on contributions, and virtually no portability. In the vast floating migrant populations of the rural countryside, there is no formal system for retirement. These rural workers are categorically excluded from the pension systems of the cities. To reform the system and meet the challenges of the age wave, the State Council has issued a new law that supplements 2015's Decision on the Reform of the State Employee Pension System, which was brought about to equalize the private and public sector systems.
The reform plan is built on four core principles. First, the government will create a universal floor of protection against poverty in old age that will cover all Chinese citizens, regardless of whether they have contributed to the basic pension system. The second step is to lower the basic pension system's contribution rate by socializing the cost of it's unfunded liabilities, having the central government directly assume the burden - that is known as the legacy cost of SOEs. Third, the pension system will be gradually transformed from a two-tier to a national system of publicly regulated but privately managed and invested personal accounts; fully funded, fully portable, and offering participants a market rate of return. Finally, supplementary coverage will be expanded under the new enterprise annuity system that had taken effect in 2015.
 

Part 2: Social Pensions

 
To create a universal floor of protection, China will be forced to assume a different tact than developed nations, not able to rely on a redistributive benefits of a contributory public pension system due to the magnitude of those needing to be insured in a relatively brief window. Instead, China will assume a general revenue financed system of old-age support; a "social pension," jointly financed by the central and provincial governments. The eligibility age will initially be set at 60, with benefits varying by residence due to the huge geographical and regional disparities in the standard of living. However, the floor of the universal benefits will be pegged at 20 percent of the average local wage for the region, which is higher than the current minimum living standard guarantee under the urban pension system.
This zero tier system will be means-tested, with benefits being phased out gradually as incomes rise. This means that a Chinese elder aged 60 or older with no other income source would be eligible for the full benefit tier, while a similarly aged elder with an income equal to the local wage would receive zero. This is a vast improvement from the current system, which simply props income to the current poverty threshold. The floor of protection will be phased in gradually as the basic pension systems are rolled back or converted, with universal coverage being established between 2025-2036. CCP estimates have pegged the cost of the means-tested benefit system at less than one-third of the current basic pension system were it to be expanded nationally, at 1% of the national GDP by 2035.
 

Part 3: A National Pension

 
To adequately create a suitable pool of wealth enabling Chinese elders to spend retirement at a standard of living approximating their working years, the best solution is, as mentioned, a fully funded national system. This will begin by phasing out the first tier of the current pay-as-you-go basic pension system, which is accomplished through the means-based floor above, while enlarging the second personal account tier. When this transition completes in the next several years, the total contribution rate for the new pension system (aka second tier, which is the only system remaining) will be 18 percent of covered payroll, with 16 percent of that flowing to personal accounts to finance retiree and aged survivors benefits, and the remaining 2 percent earmarked for insurance to survivor benefits.
Central government subsidies to the local social security bureaus, which are currently at 15%, will be gradually increased year over year until 2032 until they cover 100% of current benefits, while workers will continue to contribute 8% of their current paychecks to personal retirement accounts, as today. As the government subsidies grow, the current 20% employer contribution rate will be gradually decreased to 10%. In addition, the accrued benefits of workers who have not yet retired or are younger than 55 will be credited to their personal accounts in the form of interest-earning government "retirement bonds," avoiding a lengthy transition phase that would be seen in a pay-as-you-go system of perhaps 75 years or more.
The subsidy cost to the government will not be trivial, but will be manageable. Current estimates put the subsidy to the pension system at 2.5% of GDP a decade from now when the system is fully operational, making the poverty floor + subsidy cost 3.5% of GDP at it's peak. However, the transition costs would begin to moderate in the 2030s and 2040s as current beneficiaries and workers who have accrued substantial benefits begin to die off.
To address the rural issue, coverage will be made mandatory for wage and salary workers at town and village enterprises (TVEs), with a combined employer-employee contribution rate at 8% initially and increased by 1% year over year until it reaches 18%. To minimize the shock of an increased contribution by TVEs, the central government will begin mandating local governments to subsidize part of the TVE contributions. By 2030, coverage will be made mandatory for migrant and non-TVE workers at a lower subsidized contribution rate.
 

Part 4: Personal Allocation System & Regulation

 
The system is not a fully privatized system; the assets in these accounts will be personally owned and privately managed within the framework of a public social program, regulated and supervised by the government. Workers will be able to choose between competing personal account management companies (PAMCs) which are set up by participating financial services firms. Contributions will be routed directly to the PAMCs, which invest and administer these accounts.
This will necessitate regulation overhaul. China will structure a strong and independent regulation system that will be constituted as an independent government agency with it's own professional staff, gathered from the Ministry of Finance, Human Resources, Social Security and the People's Bank. The pension regulator would be responsible for certifying fund managers, establishing guidelines for allocation, fee structure, and reporting, and for policing the system. Within this regulation, the authorities involved will be responsible for reliable routing, recordkeeping, and functioning of the regulatory systems.
A fully independent and regulated system will provide many important advantages. Workers will be less likely to view these personal savings as a tax from the government, increasing contribution rates and improving incentives to participate, which will in turn broaden the coverage and reduce the cost of the floor protection for those not participating. It will also improve the broadening of Chinese capital markets, which has been a major reform proposal for the government since 2018, and assist in the long term maintenance of savings, investment, and living standard growth.

5.Military Reform

China's continued reforms of the PLA shall speed up in the trajectory of C4ISR, with all branches of the PLA being subject to robust reorganisation designed to cut our dependence on uneducated servant-soldiers, and turn our battle force into a comprehensive modern unit as large and as powerful as any on earth. Infantry reforms are ualready underway, but this is but a small fragment of the total:

• Ground Force. We will continue the mechanisation and technological integration of the PLAGF with the PLA as a whole, and continue to slice the bleeding edge of technology via integrated rollout across our still very large force.
  • Mechanisation. In 2014 about 20% of our divisions and Brigades were mechanised or armoured, and now it is 45%. The target is 75% by 2030, with the remaining formations being light infantry in Amphibious, Mountain, Jungle, or Air-mobile roles.
  • Smart Brigades. Our strategic shift from Division to BRigade makes for a more mobile and deployable Force.The next frontier will be towards integrated battlefield information networks featuring local/wide-area networks (LAN/WAN), satellite communications, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based surveillance and reconnaissance systems, and mobile command and control centres. Systems and support links will be in the hands of Brigades who are able to fight in the electromagnetic spectrum, as well as in vehicles and bullets. Our 20 Army Groups will all receive EW Brigades, and see their integration of new levels of Smart Technology exponentially increase.
• Naval Force
  • The PLAN has perhaps been our most successful modernisation program so far. We are outbuilding the world in new ships, and our three fleets are each now top ten global navies, each in their own right. We will continue our shipbuilding plan apace, and draw up plans for the eight years following 2028, to ensure strategic increases in subsurface, surface, and naval air systems, can become a sustainable area of production. We will seek new export partners, using large ship classes to provide production platforms upon which export capacity will stand.
  • Our carriers need squadrons of fighter organised into wings in each fleet, along with ASW helicopters, carrier delivery and transport aircraft, E/A attack aircraft, UAVs and UCAVs, in-air refuelling aircraft, and AEWAC aircraft. Shore based Maritime reconnaissance and patrol strike aircraft, refuellers and C4ISR aircraft will need greater fleet integration as our Zones of Responsibility become Chinese Waters which we are capable of complete maritime exclusion - signals and all. Being able to deploy that power into expeditionary A2Denial zones will be tested by the planned PLAN Carrier Group circumnavigation of the world, due to take place in 2028.
  • The Support Fleet needs almost exponential growth, to keep up with the growth in the needs of the PLAN. We will increase the production and procurement of Fleet Support Ships, Refuelling Ships, Transport Ships, and other service and supply Ships, to ensure all three Fleets are able to sustain global operations in any of the world's oceans, to press Chinese interests.
  • We will continue to blur the lines of civilian/state at Sea, through Strategic Ambiguity, and through our continued use of Coastguard and fishing ships in A2 denial missions that press our sovereignty in our waters.
• Air Force
  • We must plan for complete replacement of our Mig-based fighter fleets with J-20 and J-31 aircraft, as well as future newgen fighters, E/A fighters, and other leading edge craft, wholesale. That means annual procurement of Fighters must apporach the hundreds per year, with several squadrons per year receiving new aircraft until the whole Fighter Force of the PLAAF is equipped to be able to meet any threat BVR or up close, anywhere we choose.
  • We must expand our support aircraft, and bring large scale acquisitions of Fleet tankers, AEWAC, C4ISR, and transports, to make every Chinese airbase a Ready-to-fight installation. We will expand stocks of munitions and aviation fuel, taking advantage of low oil prices to both store up fuel, and to give our pilots hundreds of additional flight ours in training and combat aircraft.
  • We must develop the H-20 and be in production by the late 2020s, and other long-range aircraft. The strategic acquisition of aviation production in terms of passenger jets, and related aircraft, will have a reconfiguring effect on our plans to expand support aircraft, so national prerogatives to expand domestic aircraft production will be an especial area of focus.
• Rocket Force
  • The PLARF are also one of our more capable wings of the PLA, and our acquisition of a deterrant force capable of guaranteeing the deference of global nuclear powers, has been impressive and effective. Stocks will be expanded, and HGVs and ICBM research, as well as space and satellite launches, will drive further innovation and expansion.
• Strategic Support Force
  • The Space Systems Department will recieve new resources to expand the BeiDou global navigation satellite constellation, and other satellite and space-based C4ISR resources, which supply all of China with intelligence and security.
  • The Network Systems Department will also recieve more funding. Under its control, along with numerous military bases spread around China, is a department called the "Information Engineering University", which in turn has under its control numerous military academies around China. The use of network attacks and defence systems will be expanded, and rolled out in support of our interests across the globe.

Summary

phew
I am indebted to S01780, Relativity_One and wikipedia for much of this text.

A quick note to investors that believe the intrinsic value of bitcoin is 0 because they can't do a DCF on it: this isn't the place to argue with me about it. I suggest you read a bit more about what it actually is (hint: not a currency). I've defended its value in plenty of other posts on this sub. It's a $40+ billion market, so at least a few people agree with me. I welcome you to short the crypto of your choice if you think it's worth nothing. This is a post for folks that believe that cryptocurrencies have at least some discernible value and are considering investing in them.

If we have a strength, it is in recognizing when we are operating well within our circle of competence and when we are approaching the perimeter. – Warren Buffett

Given the tripling of the cryptocurrency market cap in the last few months and the 3- to 10-fold increases in virtually every major altcoin, cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and of course Bitcoin have been getting a stunning amount of attention in the press and on this subreddit recently.
If you follow the cryptocurrency world closely, you know that there have been a huge amount of dubious ICOs (initial coin offerings) on the market recently. It's an explosive time in crypto.
It's also a frustrating time for many long term bitcoiners and crypto fans, because we're faced with a barrage of questions from outsiders who see the returns and want to buy in to the "next big thing" and make a quick buck. This is a warning to those people.
Everyone is a genius is a rising market. It's hard to go wrong these days in crypto. Even coins of dubious merit like Ripple, Dogecoin, Stellar, NEM were pumped 5 times without any fundamental change. Speculators/investors have thrown money at crypto indiscriminately and efficient markets have 100% broken down. The altcoin pump right now is roughly comparable to the Dot Com crisis of the early 2000s.

1. New tech promises to change the world
2. Investors jump in on hype and promises
3. A surge of IPOs (ICOs) occurs to capitalize on this
4. "Greater fool" traders pile in, thinking they can make money even if the underlying is unsound
5. Analysts claim "this time is different" while seasoned old hands refuse to participate
6. Tech is proven not to be as developed as everyone thinks, market tanks
7. Select few decent companies survive, all the trash is destroyed
8. Tech eventually fulfills expectations, 10 years later, but none of the investors from the early days make money on it

However, canny (and skeptical) investors can still make money on crypto, as cryptocurrencies are inevitable, and will continue to expand and proliferate, even when the altcoin crash comes.
Something to realize first of all is that the crypto market is heterogeneous. It has straightforward cryptocurrencies (bitcoin, litecoin, dash, monero), smart-contract cryptos (ethereum, ethereum classic) and a whole bunch of crypto tokens that follow dedicated platforms (golem, augur, steem). Not mentioned are ripple and stellar because they aren't really cryptocurrencies at all.
The investing theses for all of these categories is radically different. The measure of success for a currency or store of value is adoption, merchant use, low volatility, a large network, and real world acceptance as something worth owning. Bitcoin has this right now, which is why it's more than 50% of the ecosystem, and none of its competitors are even close. Monero, Zcash, and Dash are a special case in that they try and make transactions anonymous and privacy, allowing for use cases on the darknet markets, for instance.
The tech underlying bitcoin is essentially sound, although it is having a scalability crisis, which you should read about. It can't right now serve as a currency which will buy you a cup of coffee - the transaction fees are too high. However if you want to send $200,000 from Mexico to Indonesia or China to the Philippines, you can do it within 20 minutes, and with fees of a few dollars. And if you want to store your wealth in a vault that is totally secure, and cannot be debased by a central bank, bitcoin is a good bet. This is highly relevant to folks in India that just had cash abolished, to Venezuelans, to Argentines, to Cypriots, to Nigerians, anywhere local currencies are weak and volatile. The potential value of a competing cryptocurrency lies in whether it can improve materially on bitcoin, whether it means incorporating off-chain scaling (segwit with litecoin), making it more private and fungible (monero), automating governance (decred), and so on.
Then there are cryptoassets that incorporate smart contracts. These – ethereum and its derivatives – exploded when the SEC denied the Bitcoin ETF back in march and bitcoiners got worried and started diversifying. This is the market segment that is highly risky, even by crypto standards, in my opinion. Ethereum is a protocol that allows contracts to self-enforce. Programming power to run the contracts is paid for with ethereum. Two parties agree to a contract, and it then self-executes. It's secured by a decentralized computing network of ethereum miners, so the contracts cannot be shut down by a government or corporation. It's pretty clever. Last year, a $150+ million contract was drawn up with ethereum, which would act like a venture capital fund, picking good investments just based on the votes of the token holders. This was called a Decentralized Autonomous Organization, and it was hacked before it could do anything. Well, it was exploited based on the code and so the exploit was totally "fair" given that the contract was meant to be inevitable, once agreed to. However, the creators of Ethereum didn't like the idea of losing $50 million, so they decided to collectively agree to amend the rules of the protocol itself (violating "Code is Law"), and jump onto a new one, which they would also call Ethereum, although it was really Ethereum 2.0. Some people got upset by this, because they thought that immutability and not arbitrarily rolling back the code was more important than some investors losing money because of poorly written code. They created Ethereum Classic, which is the original Ethereum chain. This wasn't what the Ethereum 2.0 folks thought would happen, but it did happen, so there are two competing Ethereum chains now.
Eventually, lots of decentralized apps were funded, via tokensales. A development team would say: "we're going to use ethereum to create a decentralized cloud computing/AI/prediction/gambling/timestamping/social media network." And then investors would buy the tokens, expecting that eventually the dev team would deliver, and the tokens would be in demand, since they would be required to use the network. It's a bit like buying in-game-currency when the game is announced, anticipating that the game would be wildly popular and you'd be able to sell it on later at a profit or acquire it cheaply to buy in-game items later on. However, many of us think that the promises are a bit extravagant, and that investors in these ICOs are probably going to lose money. The incentives aren't well aligned. Founders can just not deliver and run off with the money, and there's no regulatory body to enforce that. And for Ethereum more broadly, many people are worried that the turing-completeness of the language will mean it will face serious threats and unforeseeable hacks, like with the DAO. Finally, Ethereum has increased from around $20 to $90 in a matter of months, which raises the question of whether a) the market realized its true value or b) it was pumped on speculation. There's a huge set of unknowns with a smart contract currency, and virtually none of the promised dapps are up and running right now, and the ones that are haven't really attracted large userbases or delivered. This is because the tech is in its infancy, and the developers are still learning how to use it properly. So we won't know if these sorts of decentralized networks are even possible to create on the timelines that investors are expecting. Therefore, ethereum investors buying it on the promise of the realization of this tech in the near future are almost guaranteed to be disappointed. Additionally, ethereum is making the switch to the largely untested Proof of Stake algorithm, which will change incentives that secure the network. This brings me to my key point:
Stay within your circle of competence. You can grow your circle – slowly. Cryptoassets are almost impossibly complex to grasp with just a cursory look. Investing in them requires weeks of reading and a very skeptical view.
The above was an introduction to cryptocurrencies, the different ones on offer, and why investing in ethereum is not the slam dunk everyone thinks it is. This portion of the post will tell you about the kind of due diligence you need to do if you want to invest, rather than speculate, in crypto.
The first thing to mention is that passive investing in crypto has historically been a terrible strategy. Just buying bitcoin almost always outperformed. This was due to the poor set of altcoins, and the size of bitcoin's almost insurmountable network effect. This sort of changed in March and April when bitcoin's dominance went from 80% to ~50%, and it remains to be seen if this will persist or not. But the point is, buying the index is usually an awful strategy in crypto, particularly because there are so many truly awful projects out there.
So what does it take to invest responsibly in cryptocurrencies? It requires at least a basic understanding of three disciplines: public-private key cryptography; programming, and how open-source projects function; and economics, particularly game theory and the quantity theory of money. This is why is is so difficult to apprehend easily: because very few people actually boast a sincere understanding of these three topics. I certainly don't.
You need to be able to determine whether the tech is actually going anywhere, and whether the task the developers have set themselves is possible or realistic. You need to know how open source networks are governed, and which models strike the best balance between efficiency of decision-making and fair consensus. You need to be able to measure the inflation schedule of the cryptocurrency, and see whether your coins are going to inflated away. You need to be able to make plausible guesses about the potential market for the crypto and estimate future values. Note that the payoff structure is not equity-like. It's more like early stage venture capital, or buying loss-making biotech companies. Here's my checklist of questions to answer, ordered by importance:

• Does the project offer a significant improvement over its nearest competitor, or a reasonable chance of success in its stated aim? Is there a demand for this project? Does it have a concise and reasonable goal? (Narrower goal: higher likelihood of success).
  
• Is the development team competent? Are they committed to the coin? What's their track record? Is is an active dev team? Do they have a roadmap for the future? Are they transparent about goals?
  
• How is the development team funded? Is the currency corporate-backed? Is the funding transparent? Was the coin significantly premined? (Usually bad) Are developers paid via iterative community project crowdfunding? (Usually good).
  
• What is the governance structure of the currency? Who holds ultimate control over decisionmaking? How are decisions made? Are they transparent? Are mining/developer incentives aligned?
  
• Does the asset have acceptance and use today? Does it have a functioning use case? If it doesn't, does it have a decent chance of being accepted?
  
• Has the asset's "market cap" tripled or quintupled in the last few months? Was this based on any fundamental changes (new software releases, etc) or just speculation?
  
• What are the transaction volumes like? (Hint: divide market cap by monthly averaged daily on-chain tx volume to find a consistent ratio) What's the ratio of on-chain transaction versus exchange speculation? Has price gone up independent of transaction volumes?
  
• How long has the asset been around? Think of the Lindy effect. Older is usually better.
  
• What's the community like? Is there censorship? Does it have an active subreddit? Do the developers answer questions? Are they accessible? How big is the github community? (Hint: you can divide market cap by github commits to find a comparable ratio).
  
• Are you psychologically able to hold this coin in a 90% downturn? Is this a high conviction thesis or are you betting on being able to sell it to a greater fool?
  

How long did it take you to learn about investing in equities? Reading balance sheets, running DCF and DRI models, figuring out how to value a stock based on comparables? Years? How many mistakes did you make before you figured out how to be responsible?
Cryptos are an asset class that is both radically different from anything that has existed before. They are also incredibly heterogeneous, as I argued above. It also leads to cultism – so bitcoiners generally take a dim view of ethereum, and vice versa. Monero fans generally don't like dash, and so on. You have to keep your mind open to understand new opportunities as they arise, and to stop yourself becoming too mentally invested in your project of choice. The vast majority of projects will fail within 5 years, so becoming overly certain of the success of one will probably devastate you. If you can stay balanced, stay honest about your crypto's chances of success and adoption, not get tunnel vision, and not take overly risky positions, you have a good chance of not losing everything. Remember the payoff structure. Heavily rightward skewed. A ton of cryptos earn no return and a select few earn an absurd (1,000-10,000x) return.
None of this is necessary if you just want to invest randomly in one of the top ten cryptos. That's the strategy of 95% of investors today. Pick a coin and go. If it's not bitcoin, I can pretty much guarantee you'll lose money. The newer, the worse.
I've not made an effort to convince you that cryptos have intrinsic value. If you've made it this far, you probably think they're worth something at least. However, they're probably not worth as much as the market is pricing them at right now. Especially not those in the ethereum family. I'm not going to tell you what to invest in, because that would defeat the purpose of this post. I'm telling you to do your due diligence before blindly buying a crypto. And that due diligence on ethereum is as complex and difficult as Tesla or Amazon DD. And that your skills in equity valuation are pretty much useless in this asset class. My circle of competence doesn't extend to options or lean pork futures, so I don't touch those. I suggest that until you really feel comfortable in crypto, you don't buy randomly.
Summative thoughts:

1. Investing in crypto is hard
2. 90% of people that invest at market peaks will lose money
3. You have to extremely skeptical and invest in high-conviction positions
4. Cryptos are exhibiting bubbly behavior right now, it's a pretty bad time to pick one out
5. Cryptos are nothing like equities but they do have real value
6. Cryptos are the future, but almost none of these coins will survive 10 years
7. The older the better
8. Governance is key
9. These are speculative positions, only invest what you can tolerate losing
10. You can make money investing in cryptos
11. Passively investing in cryptos doesn't work
12. It's a winner takes most market, there won't be 1 crypto that wins. There will be different cryptos for different use cases.

edit: deleted chart with probabilities of success because of subjectivity and oversimplification.
edit2: I've been overwhelmed with PMs so bear with me. also, please forgive any spelling errors on this post. I wrote it in one frenzied sitting.
edit3: I knew I would get a fair amount of resistance from ethereum investors (even though I attempted to keep my post as balanced as possible) but I was unprepared from the breathtaking volume of spam and diversity of attacks. One particular user has made 30 comments in this thread. I don't have a stake in ETC, period. The post is 3000 words long and most of it is about how to properly do your due diligence in a crypto. if ethereum fares poorly by standard due diligence metrics, then perhaps your issue is deeper than one post on /investing.
final edit: there have been some broken-hearted ethereum fans very busy organizing brigades against this post, and attacking me personally, and so on. It's all very incovenient. I can tell that I struck a nerve. This post isn't really about ethereum - it's about how to do research in crypto, and why you can't expect to profit handsomely without that due diligence. I mentioned ethereum because there are 3 or 4 breathless posts on here a day about its stunning gains and whether it's worth investing in. My answer: read about it first, from a diverse set of sources. A final note: I do not own any ethereum classic, I have never owned ethereum classic. I brought it up because it is part of the ethereum story, and an example of what happens when you have a contested hard fork. I do hope that ethereum succeeds, I am just cautioning against over exuberance.

The news last month that Deutsche Bank was axing its global equities trading operations—and cutting roughly one-fifth of its total workforce in the process—shook the banking world to its core.
Yes, the sheer extent of Deutsche’s cutbacks may be unique to the beleaguered German giant’s deep-seated issues. But the reality is that when it comes to the glamorous world of trading, more and more big banks are finding it an unprofitable proposition—and scaling back accordingly.
Case in point: last week’s revelation that Citigroup is bracing to cut hundreds of jobs across its trading division, including at least 100 positions in its equities-trading unit, according to Bloomberg. That comes as Citi’s equities trading revenues declined 17% year-on-year through the first six months of 2019. Other banks have taken similar measures in recent months; Paris-based Société Générale announced 1,200 layoffs in the division that houses its trading activities in April.
And more broadly, major investment banks are doing whatever necessary to cut costs, whether it’s Goldman Sachs pulling back at its once-vaunted commodities trading desk earlier this year, or Barclays laying off 3,000 employees “across the board” in the second quarter.
Yet it is traders that seem to be paying the steepest price, having fallen victim to a confluence of factors that have hurt big banks’ ability to compete in the world of equities and fixed-income products. Among the culprits? Automation, but also fierce competition from smaller, more nimble players on Wall Street—including non-bank entities that don’t have the capital requirement regulations imposed on banks following the Great Recession.

“Fewer heads”

Without a doubt, the “electronification” of stock and bond trading has lessened the need for headcount at trading desks. While products like derivatives and high-yield credit still often require the need for human interaction, traditional cash equities and fixed-income trading has become an increasingly automated proposition.
“What we’re seeing is less need for human traders, and we’re also seeing some businesses be consolidated,” according to Sandler O’Neill anaylst Jeff Harte, who covers the banking sector.
Harte points to Citi’s decision to consolidate its equities, prime brokerage and securities services units into one division as part of an “ongoing effort to make trading businesses more efficient,” and one that is “leading to a general decline in heads.”
He adds that Citi and other banks that are now reducing their trader counts have generally been “slow to the punch” in addressing headwinds that have impacted their profit margins—and only expects the trend to continue. “I think we’ll keep seeing trader counts ratchet their way down across Wall Street,” Harte says.
For Citi, it is a particularly painful development given the extent to which the bank has sought to build up its trading business in recent years, extending its reach beyond the consumer-facing retail offerings that give it much of its name recognition. And though Citi’s robust consumer business does soften the blow when it comes to a challenged investment banking sector, the pullback in its trading operations is a testament to how hard even the largest banks are finding things these days.
Compared to equities heavyweights like JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, the likes of Citi and formerly Deutsche Bank have found themselves “second-tier players,” according to Christopher Whalen, a former Bear Stearns banker and chairman of financial services consultancy Whalen Global Advisors.
“It’s a different world than when I first got into the business, and it’s hard to get people to do this cash [trading] stuff,” Whalen notes. “Derivatives are different, but cash stocks and cash bonds—no.” He adds that while smaller, boutique investment banking players have a more commission-oriented, “eat what you kill” approach to the business, “the big shops still have this strategy of salaries and bonuses, and you just can’t do that anymore.”
Instead, the likes of Citi are better off focusing on segments like consumer banking, which even traditionally investment banking-focused players like Goldman Sachs increasingly getting into.
“If you look at what Citi’s got, consumer [banking] is far and away the most valuable part of their book,” Whalen says. “If you have a choice between consumer [banking] and capital markets, you’re going to do the former—it’s much more stable. With capital markets, you put people at desks and hope they make money. All of the second-tier [trading] players are getting culled.”

A changed environment

In general, the banks now find themselves competing in an environment that has changed drastically in the decade since the Great Recession. With non-banking entities, like private equity firms and debt funds now holding an unprecedented amount of assets—and those players not subject to the same capital requirement regulations that banks are—balance sheets aren’t as robust as they once were and banks find themselves unable to play in the same high-risk, high-reward markets that they once were.
“The non-banks like Blackstone and Citadel, they don’t have the capital requirements that the banks do; they’re more nimble, they can hire a lot of people and take on riskier transactions,” according to Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, managing principal at capital markets consultancy MRV Associates.
Harte echoed that sentiment, adding that the amount of capital that banks now have to hold against many of their trading positions “has definitely changed the industry. You can’t lever up as much as you could pre-crisis.”
That, coupled with investor risk-appetites that Harte says have yet to return anywhere near pre-recession levels, have forced the banks to adjust accordingly. And while they may be saving money in the near-term by scaling down their trading operations, it could costly them dearly in the long-term—given how the market is a vital gateway toward developing client relationships and procuring other, “higher-margin” business.
“Having a trading desk is important to a lot of other investment banking businesses,” Harte notes. “If you were to exit U.S. equities trading like Deutsche Bank did, it’s going to be a lot harder to be the lead underwriter on the next big IPO if you’re not trading stocks. Other revenues are impacted by these decisions.”
Only time will tell if the current trend of trading austerity proves a prudent financial decision, or a long-term opportunity cost.

More must-read stories from Fortune:

—Does the stock market have a say in the presidential election?
—The bond market has a message for the Fed: You’re not in charge anymore
—Wall Street banks see increasing odds of recession after trade war escalation
—Debit cards for kids? Here’s what you need to know about the newest offerings
—Amid trade tumult, Goldman Sachs now sees two more interest rate cuts this year
Don’t miss the daily Term Sheet, _Fortune_‘s newsletter on deals and dealmakers.
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Download Android Only Paid Apps - Week 14 2019, Now that we are at the 2019's 14th week we bring you a collection of paid android apps, and this collection has more than 140 paid and premium Android Applications.
For your convenience the Apk files have been uploaded into 3 separate selective ZIP files, enjoy!

Android Only Paid Apps [Week 14 2019] Part 1:

• [Substratum] Mono Art v28 [Patched].apk
• [Substratum] Vacuum Q Style v6.0 [Patched].apk
• [Substratum] Valerie v12.2.0 [Patched].apk
• Adguard - Block Ads Without Root v3.0.306_ [Nightly] [Premium].apk
• Adobe Photoshop Lightroom CC v4.2.2 [Unlocked] ARM.apk
• Adobe Photoshop Lightroom CC v4.2.2 [Unlocked] ARM64.apk
• Adobe Photoshop Lightroom CC v4.2.2 [Unlocked] x86.apk
• Adobe Spark Post Graphic design made easy v3.1.0 [Unlocked].apk
• Alchemy for KWGT v2.2 [Paid].apk
• AndrOpen Office v4.2.9 [Unlocked] Extensions.rar
• AndrOpen Office v4.2.9 [Unlocked].apk
• APK EXTRACTOR PRO v11.0.0 [Premium].apk
• App Manager v4.35 [Donated].apk
• Aubade Audio Studio v1.8.4 [Paid].apk
• Audio MP3 Cutter Mix Converter v1.80 [PRO].apk
• AutoMapa v5.4.2 (2315) need LP.apk
• B1 Archiver zip rar unzip Pro v1.0.0132 [Unlocked].apk
• Bass Guitar Tutor Pro v114 Marvin Gaye [Paid].apk
• BeFunky Photo Editor Pro v6.2.8 [Paid].apk
• Bookmark Folder v3.6.7 [Unlocked].apk
• CalenGoo - Calendar and Tasks v1.0.177 build 1067 [Patched].apk
• Camera ZOOM FX Premium v6.3.0 [Paid].apk
• Cavion - Icon Pack v1.4 [Patched].apk
• CCleaner Memory Cleaner, Phone Booster, Optimizer v4.13.1 build 714552401
• [Professional Mod].apk
• chomp SMS v8.5 build 9080502 [Pro].apk
• CM Launcher 3D - Themes, Wallpapers v5.71.2 [Pro].apk
• CM Launcher 3D - Themes, Wallpapers v5.74.1 [Pro].apk
• Cube Call Recorder ACR Premium v2.3.147 [Premium].apk
• Debt Manager and Tracker Pro v3.9.27-play-paid [Paid].apk
• Do It Later - Text Message Automation v2.8.6 [Premium].apk
• Do Not Disturb - Silent Mode Premium v5.2.0 [Patched].apk
• Down Dog Great Yoga Anywhere v3.8.1 [Subscribed].apk
• Downloader & Private Browser v3.0.0.171 [Premium].apk
• Draw Pixel Art Pro v3.22 [Paid].apk
• DWG FastView-CAD Viewer & Editor v3.2.1 [Premium].apk
• Edge [substratum] v7.0 [Patched].apk
• ENIX - Icon Pack v1.4 [Patched].apk
• ePSXe for Android v2.0.11 [Beta-2] [Paid].apk
• eWeather HD - weather, hurricanes, alerts, radar v7.9.0 [Patched].apk
• FBReader Premium - Favorite Book Reader v3.0.7 [Final] [Patched].apk
• Fish Live Wallpaper 3D Aquarium Background HD PRO v1.1 [Paid].apk
• Flamingo for Twitter v17.6 [Patched].apk
• Flashlight v20.10-r15 [Paid].apk
• Fleksy - Emoji & GIF keyboard app v9.8.0 build 2790 [Premium].apk

Android Only Paid Apps [Week 14 2019] Part 2:

• Friendly for Facebook v4.0.01 build 573 [Unlocked] ARM.apk
• Friendly for Facebook v4.0.01 build 573 [Unlocked] ARM64.apk
• Fuchsia KWGT - Gradient Based Widgets v3.2 [Paid].apk
• Greyscale - Substratum Theme v5.2 [Patched].apk
• iPhonize Notch for iPhone X, S10 Xs Theme v2.12 [Premium].apk
• JRiver for Android v25.0.19 [Paid].apk
• Kraken TV v1.4.11 build 23 [Mod] no Location.apk
• Kraken TV v1.4.11 build 23 [Mod].apk
• Ksana Sweep Watch Face for Wear OS v1.6.5 [Paid].apk
• L Speed (Boost&Battery) [ROOT] v2.0.6 [Final] [Mod].apk
• LazyMedia Deluxe v2.67 [Pro] Ru.apk
• Learn Spanish with MosaLingua v10.34 [Paid].apk
• Live Wallpapers HD & Backgrounds 4k 3D - WALLOOP v9.0 [Mod Premium] Proper.apk
• Lucky Patcher v8.2.6 Installer.apk
• Lucky Patcher v8.2.6 Standalone.apk
• Lucky Patcher v8.2.6.apk
• Magic DosBox v1.0.77 [Paid].apk
• Maps - Navigate & Explore v10.12.3 [Final].apk
• Master for Minecraft(Pocket Edition)-Mod Launcher v2.1.95 [Unlocked].apk
• Mate UI - Material Icon Pack v1.67 [Patched].apk
• Mation - Icon Pack v1.6.2 [Patched].apk
• Mconnect Player – Google Cast & DLNA UPnP v3.1.1 [Paid].apk
• MiMind - Easy Mind Mapping v2.15 [Pro].apk
• Mobile Print - PrinterShare v11.22.0 [Premium].apk
• Money Lover Expense Manager & Budget Planner v3.8.86.2019040510 [Premium].apk
• Moneycontrol - Stocks, Sensex, Mutual Funds, IPO v6.0.0 [Unlocked].apk
• Mubert v2.5 [Pro].apk
• Music Player - Mp3 Player v4.0 build 4003 [Premium].apk
• Mute Camera Pro v1.5.0 [Paid].apk
• MX Player Pro v1.10.50 [Paid] ARM need LP.apk
• MX Player Pro v1.10.50 [Paid] x86 need LP.apk
• My Day - Countdown Calendar v2.9.8 [Unlocked].apk
• N Docs - Office, Pdf, Text, Markup, Code, Ebook v4.3.3 [Mod].apk
• NewsFeed Launcher v3.4.302 [Paid].apk
• Night Vision Camera (Photo and Video) v1.7.1 [Pro].apk
• Nineteen vonehundredthirtyfive [Patched].apk
• Notes v8.4.5 [Donate].apk
• Nova Launcher v6.1.5 [Beta] [Prime] Tesla.apk
• Nova Launcher v6.1.5 [Beta] [Prime].apk
• Offline Maps & Navigation v17.7.4 [Original].apk
• Offline Maps & Navigation v17.7.4 [Unlocked] BASE.rar
• Offline Maps & Navigation v17.7.4 [Unlocked] MAPS.rar
• Offline Maps & Navigation v17.7.4 [Unlocked].apk
• Oxygen 8.0 Substratum Theme v73.2 [Patched] - PitchBlack.apk
• PeakFinder AR v3.6.5 [Patched].apk
• Phonto - Text on Photos v1.7.22 [Pro].apk
• Photo Studio PRO v2.0.23 [Paid].apk
• Photo Translator v7.0.1 [Pro].apk
• Physics Toolbox Sensor Suite Pro v1.9.3.5 build 69 [Paid].apk
• Pixel Icons v1.6.4 [Patched].apk
• Polycon Icon Pack - Fruity v1.0 [Patched].apk
• Pushbullet - SMS on PC v18.2.8 [Beta] [Pro].apk
• Q Alerts QAnon Drop Notifications, Research +++ v7.2.2 [Paid].apk
• QR & Barcode Reader (Pro) v2.2.2-P [Paid].apk

Android Only Paid Apps [Week 14 2019] Part 3:

• Quick Video Recorder v1.3.1.2 [Pro].apk
• QuickBend Conduit Bending v3.1.0 [Paid].apk
• QuitNow! PRO - Stop smoking v5.101.5 [Paid].apk
• Radio FM Player - TuneFm v1.6.13 [Premium].apk
• Reduce Neck Pain v7.0 [Paid].apk
• Relay for reddit (Pro) v9.5.9 build 397 [Paid].apk
• Remote Control for All TV v1.1.13 [Premium].apk
• Rhonna Designs v2.42.1 [Paid].apk
• Rhonna Designs v2.42.1 [Paid]-OBB.rar
• RunKeeper - GPS Track Run Walk v9.8.3 [Elite].apk
• Scientific Calculator Complex Number Calculator v1.3 [Paid].apk
• Screenshot Pro - Quick Capture v3.3.0 [Paid].apk
• SD Maid - System Cleaning Tool v4.14.0 [Beta] [Pro] LIC.apk
• SD Maid - System Cleaning Tool v4.14.0 [Beta] [Pro] Unlocked.apk
• SD Maid - System Cleaning Tool v4.14.0 [Beta] [Pro].apk
• Sesame - Universal Search and Shortcuts v3.4.0 [Beta-1] [Unlocked].apk
• Seven - 7 Minute Workout v8.1.5 [Unlocked].apk
• Shazam Encore v9.25.2-190404 [Paid].apk
• SMS Auto Reply Text PRO - Autoresponder- Auto SMS v7.5.4 [Paid].apk
• SMS Backup & Restore Pro v10.05.501 [Paid].apk
• SofaScore Live Score v5.69.7 [Unlocked].apk
• Sound Meter Pro v2.5.9 [Patched].apk
• Spheroid Icon v2.2.5 [Patched].apk
• Stop Call Me - Community Call Blocker v1.9.0 [Pro].apk
• Stop Motion Studio Pro v.5.1.0.7859 [Paid].apk
• StorySave v1.23.2 [Pro].apk
• SunTrajectory.net v2.9l [Paid].apk
• Swift Black Substratum Theme +Oreo & Samsung theme v25.7 [Patched] Pie.apk
• Swift Dark Substratum Theme +Oreo & Samsung theme v25.7 [Patched] Pie.apk
• Swift Installer - Themes & color engine v9.29 [Patched].apk
• Swift Minimal for Samsung - Substratum Theme v25.7 [Patched] Pie.apk
• Tasker v5.7.0 [Beta-11] [Paid].apk
• Tasker v5.7.0 [Beta-12] [Paid].apk
• The Guardian v6.19.1952 [Subscribed].apk
• Tool Box v1.7.3.A [Paid].apk
• Touch Protector (to prevent unintended operations) v4.3.1 [Donate].apk
• Translucent Substratum Theme v3.60 [Patched].apk
• Tweetings for Twitter v12.0.2 [Patched].apk
• Unit Converter v2.1.84 [Premium].apk
• Virtuagym Fitness Tracker - Home & Gym v7.3.1 [Pro].apk
• Waze - GPS, Maps, Traffic Alerts & Live Navigation v4.50.0.0 [RC].apk
• Weather Elite by WeatherBug v5.9.2-12 [Paid].apk
• Weather Forecast Pro Timeline, Radar, MoonView v2.3 [Paid].apk
• Weather&Clock Widget Ad Free v4.0.1.2 [Paid].apk
• Whicons - White Icon Pack v9.16.0.apk
• WiFi Password Viewer [ROOT] v1.0 [Pro] Lite.apk
• WiFi Password Viewer [ROOT] v1.0 [Pro].apk
• Yandex.Transport v5.14 [Lite Mod] x86.apk
• Yandex.Transport v5.14 [Lite Mod].apk
• YoWindow Weather v2.12.14 [Paid].apk
• Zest Web Browser - Ad Blocker, Fast & Private v2.0.19 [Paid].apk

Download Links:

Android Only Paid APPs - Week 14 2019 Part 1 (996 MB): Download Link 1 / Download Link 2 / Download link 3
Android Only Paid APPs - Week 14 2019 Part 2 (1.1 GB): Download Link 1 / Download Link 2 / Download link 3
Android Only Paid APPs - Week 14 2019 Part 3 (1.2 GB): Download Link 1 / Download Link 2 / Download link 3
Download More Apps Collection!
Originally Uploaded by: AndroGalaxy

I posted a link to my yours.org the other day, but due to that sites activity being far less than this site, I've decided to upload my posts here for at least a little while, and will continue to post updates here if people find them interesting. As my previous post stated, all input, positive and of course negative is more than welcome.
 
Coloured Coins; the Basics: https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/7ne47b/coloured_coins_the_basics_non_technical/
 
This post is an extension of my "Coloured Coins; the basics" where I touched on the concept of coloured coins and how it relates to Bitcoin (cash), the blockchain and the decentralizing movement we are currently seeing develop within finance and economics in the form of electronic peer-to-peer payment systems. I will be expanding upon the idea of a decentralized and global equities exchange that can be made possible by the use of coloured tokens on Bitcoin.
 
A lot of people within this cryptocurrency space found themselves here, not through an interest in finance or economics, but instead through computer science and programming, or even just an interest in gambling or playing with new and interesting tech. For those of you who know nothing of finance and economics and who have never bought or sold a stock in a company, I will briefly explain what equity investing is and then how coloured coins can change the current methods used today. Typical methods of investing see an individual buy a small portion of a company that they believe will yield positive profits into the future. By purchasing 0.1% of the company, they entitle themselves to 0.1% of that companies profits, paid out in the form of a dividend. These holdings are called stocks, and they are bought and sold through the use of stock exchanges typically contained within a country (currently, there is no global stock exchange). If you've ever heard someone say; "You can't invest in Bitcoin, you can only hold and speculate on its price.", they are following the belief, that because you are not purchasing equity in a system designed to return a profit, you are not investing in the traditional sense.
 
To purchase Bitcoin is not the same as an equity investment in a company that yeilds profits for shareholders; paid out in the form of a dividend. Bitcoin is a tool, not a system of value creation. It can be seen as an investment and perhaps its primary use right now is just that; a speculative investment, but I believe when we pass this initial adoption phase, and the tool starts to shine in the ways its truly meant to, thats when things get fun.
 
Bitcoin as a tool; A decentralized and global stock exchange
 
My previous post touched on this idea of a blockchain based, Decentralised Stock Exchange (DSE), built on top of the Bitcoin (cash) protocol. This is not my original idea, and I am definitely not the first person to expand upon it, I do however have a passion for finance, and felt this idea deserved a post of its own due to the nature and magnitude that this could change the current global equities markets. I've talked about how coloured coins open doors to making a DSE possible, the point of this post is to explore it in more depth, talking about what it could look like, and why I (and many others I assume) would want it to exist.
 
Before we talk about the how and why of this DSE, lets briefly cover how stocks have been traded in the past and how the trading is currently handled.
Before the introduction and wide spread use of the internet, stock trading was typically handled by a person known as a broker. For the average person to purchase a stock, they would seek the services and usually advice of a broker on which stocks they should buy. This service came with a hefty fee that made investing more niche that it is today. If you were looking to invest $1000 into the market, but you didn't know how or what to purchase, you would enlist the help of a broker. This consultation could very easily take an hour or more and cost around $100. A typical healthy yearly return for a stable blue chip or index fund (a collection of blue chip stocks) in the market is anywhere from 8-12%. This essentially means, that prior to the adoption of the internet, an individual looking to invest $1000 would need to sacrifice a good years worth of returns (10%) in fees, and thats not even factoring in the opportunity cost associated with letting that money sit in a 4% savings account in the early 2000s instead. Very few, if anyone would have purchased less than $2000 or even less than $5000 at any one time with fees of around $100.
Fast forward to today, and what do we have? To purchase stocks now, an individual will most likely seek advice on the internet, and use an online service provided by his or her bank that allows the user to trade on the stock exchange within the country. Use of this service comes with a brokerage fee, however, due to the automation from the program, trades are faster and less human recources are expended, so fees are lower. In Australia a typical brokerage fee to purchase a packet of shares online would be $20. In todays world, interest rates have fallen and the stock markets, especially within the first world countries, have become a lot more efficient (approaching a theory known as the efficient market hypothesis), and thus returns are lower. So that $20 that doesn't sound like a lot, can bite into your returns if you are purchasing only a small amount, which we will explore now. Lets say you have $500 that you are looking to invest in a low risk large collection of shares such as an index fund. That $20 now equates to 4% of your total purchase. In the current market, a good year could return roughly 8%. Now you've sacrificed half a years profits (4%) on just the purchasing of the stock. I believe with the methods of purchasing stocks we have today, to spend less than $2000 on any one transaction is inadvisable (this means that you are paying a 1% fee of your initial investment).
So we've gone from $5000 to $2000 for a reasonable purchase, for some people these amounts are affortable, but many more people looking to invest just dont have that kind of money ready to park and leave in the market long into the future.
 
Now we are getting to the next step in this process; the blockchain model. By allowing companies to offer up equity in the form of nonfungable coloured coins ontop of a decentralised global public blockchain, you have opened this market up to everyone with an internet connection and any amount of spare cash. I see no reason why fees would need to exceed anything past a couple of cents, if they were too high, another person would be able to implement a competing system with lower fees due to the open source nature of the Bitcoin protocol. Transactions would be as fast as any other on the network, and individuals would be able to buy or sell equity across country lines without banks and government regulations. By building an equities exchange on top of Bitcoin, every person with an internet connection would have access to buy or sell equity in a company from anyone anywhere on the planet, essentially instantly and basically for free. This is an anarchists dream, it could usher in a new era in globalised trade, that in so far as Bitcoin is unhackable, would be completely secure.
 
Lets talk about regulation and IPO requirements
 
In Australia the current requirments for a business to go public on the stock market through an initial public offering (IPO) are as follows; A minimum of 300 non-affiliated investors at A$2000, they must offer up a free float of 20% in equity, they must pass a profit test whereby they are required to have consolidated A$1 million in profit from continued operations over the past 3 years, as well as A$500,000 profit from continuing operations over the last 12 months, or they are required to have either A$4million in net tangible assets, or A$15million market capitalisation. These figures can be found at http://www.asx.com.au.
 
The specific details don't matter, what matters is; companies need to be large and selling equity is not currently a possibility for the vast majority of small and even medium sized businesses. And on top of that, the current model also requires a set of ongoing and public financial reporting that all past, present and future share holders must have access to. The blockchain model would not only allow more people to buy stock in companies across the planet, but it would allow smaller businesses the opportunity to raise capital by selling equity; a system of financing that has potential to bring massive growth to those its available to. However, this is where things can get dicey.
 
Some would argue these stock exchange markets need governing bodies to oversee that things are done properly and that businesses can't scam or mislead people into purchasing stock that they otherwise would not have, had they been privvy to all the information. My personal opinion on this is that I don't know for sure whether a decentralised exchange would be able to succeed in a world that lacks centralised regulation, however I tend to believe less regulation is more often better than more, and if there became a demand for regulation/oversite, then perhaps a private business that monitors and confirms the legitimacy of companies that are trying to sell equity on the blockchain would be set up. This company would sell this service, and their reputation, business model and profits would be effected if they were found to be dodgy, thus they would have incentive to maintain legitimate practices.
 
Thats all I have to say on the topic of decentralised stock markets. The prospect excites me a great deal, and I look forward to hearing what you guys think.
 
Regards
Cooper
https://www.yours.org/usecooperverdon