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Let's Talk: 2021 Rankings [#1]

Note: Made an edit 12 hours after posting here. I didn't like where Rondale was ranked so I did move him up two spots to more closely match his athletic profile to other players. To make someone upset, looking at these rankings and having spent more time thinking about it I may also move Smith down to 9. I'll leave it for now.

2020 series:

2021 series:

Quick note: I am not going to be providing a formula change relative to last year, and I'll be citing past work in this post rather than bringing in new concepts. To that point I suppose we will talk more about rankings today. I'm going to avoid tiering in this case but will certainly enter discussions below; I intend to describe more of my takes in the comments rather than the body of the post.

Contents:


2020 Season Recap

Like every year, the sands shift under our feet every couple of weeks. We had players opt out, we had players lose the season due to injury, we had players lose their careers due to medical events. We see this frequently, Mike Williams and DK Metcalf having their careers threatened by neck injuries, Ahmonn Richards losing his career due to a neck injury.
This year we nearly lost Justyn Ross due to a birth defect (and given Clemson’s history may be likely to return to school) and lost Journey Brown (my pre-season RB3) to a career ending heart defect. Throw in Ja’Marr Chase’s opt out--which gave Terrace Marshall the lead spot at LSU, Javonte Williams usurping Michael Carter and thundering into the top RB conversation, Kylin Hill opting out; the sands shifted.
For all that sand shifting, I do not feel my rankings in this iteration are changing much. There were some stand out performances that re-organized my WR rankings, and my uncertainty around Hubbard has only grown, but the complexion of the rankings are fairly solid now 8 months later.

Draft Expectations

I reference my thought process around this in the 2020 Let's Talk under the heading "Setting Draft Capital Expectations." The cliff notes version is I currently use historical precedent to determine just how many players we can expect to go in rounds 1-3 each year. This was born out of countering the idiocy of takes like "30 wide receivers are going to go in the first 3 rounds" when there have never been more than 17 taken. Generally, we know that draft capital is a large portion of opportunity and the wide body of top ranked prospects any given year will come out of day 1 and day 2.
This doesn't mean we disregard everyone that falls out of that conversation--this year there are a number of players I am intrigued with that I currently don't project to have day 1 or day 2 draft capital--but it gives us a place to start.
Since 2013, we know on average 5 QBs, 7 RBs, 12 WRs, and 6 TEs go Day 1-2. Over that course of time we have not seen more than 8 RBs or 16 WRs go in the first two days of the draft and from past examination since 2002 it was only in 2007 that 17 WRs went in the first two days. The general thought here, like we observed in 2019, you may get a record 13 receivers go in the first 2 rounds but then you are only going to get 2 in round 3..on average. Any year can be an outlier, but we don't set expectations on outliers.
Having said all of this my current expectation for the coming class is:
Round QB RB WR
1 3 0-1* 4-6*
2 1-2* 3-4* 4-6*
3 1-2* 3 2-3*
Total Taken 6 7 12
* My current read is there is a player(s) between rounds.
One quick note, every year there tends to be a small school guy that creeps into the day 2 conversation. This year, I wouldn't bet against 13-15 receivers being taken, however I believe there is value in being measured and conservative in these numbers as we must thin the herd and think about who deserves to be in the conversation instead of assuming every player that is ever mentioned is just in the conversation. That's how you get Equanimeous St. Brown Round 1 lock.
PS: Dang I did a pretty good job ballparking players last year. Maybe I should have spent more time on it this year to make sure I do just as well.

Positional Rankings

First, no, I don't talk about tight ends until after the draft. It's outside of my wheel house. A lot of people I respect LOVE Pitts though.
As I've spoken in the past, draft capital is a good guide, and often times out performs ADP in straight rankings, especially early in a players career (opportunity > talent, but talent eventually brings the opportunity). However, if we are looking at success rates, or the probability of finding success by draft position, we find there isn't a significant difference in rate of success between a runner taken 65th overall and a runner taken 90th overall. A receiver taken 25th overall or a receiver taken 65th overall.
More succinctly, if you know DK Metcalf is a hard worker, comes from a football family, has a production profile that mirrors hall of famers when extrapolated out and has gone to a good team--you ignore what people are saying and take the 9th drafted WR as your WR1. Take the 6th drafted WR (Michael Thomas) as your WR1. It may fail, the best odds in fantasy predictions are a coin flip, the BEST odds, so don't haggle between the difference of 20% and 15% odds.

Quarterback
  1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (Top 3)
  2. Justin Fields, Ohio State (Top 5)
  3. Zach Wilson, BYU (Round 1)
  4. Mac Jones, Alabama (Round 2)
  5. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (Round 2)
  6. Kyle Trask, Florida (Round 2-3)
Haven't fallen in love with a specific QB yet, but I think there is a lot of noise around each player. Find your favorite and cling to him.

Running Back
  1. Najee Harris, Alabama (Round 2)
  2. Travis Etienne, Clemson (Round 2)
  3. Javonte Williams, North Carolina (Round 2)
  4. Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State (Round 3)
  5. Michael Carter, North Carolina (Round 3)
  6. Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State (Round 2)
  7. Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (Round 3)
Honorable Mentions:
I'm not saying there won't be first round runners, but if there are, I think they seep into the 20s or 30-32 like last year.

Wide Receiver
  1. Ja'Marr Chase, LSU (Top 15)
  2. Terrace Marshall, LSU (Top 40)
  3. Justyn Ross, Clemson (Round 2)
  4. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota (Top 40)
  5. Jaylen Waddle, Alabama (Top 20)
  6. DeVonta Smith, Alabama (Top 30)
  7. Seth Williams, Auburn (Round 3)
  8. Elijah Moore, Ole Miss (Round 2)
  9. Rondale Moore, Purdue (Top 40) [+2]
  10. Chris Olave, Ohio State (Round 2)
  11. Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State (Round 2-3)
  12. Dyami Brown, North Carolina (Round 3)
Honorable Mentions:
Let it all burn.
Before everyone goes thermonuclear in the comments, 5-11 are a fairly large tier for me. I think Rondale Moore is roughly where Tyreek was coming out of college, more game tape being used as an extension of the ground game than as a true wide receiver. I think in the right situation (with the reading I've done on Rondale Moore) gives him a similar career arc to Tyreek. But if you are asking me to give up someone like the more technically savvy players ahead of him for Rondale and I need to hit on that pick? It's scary so far out from the start of the season.


Top 12 Rankings (Superflex)

  1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
  2. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
  3. Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
  4. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
  5. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
  6. Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
  7. Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU
  8. Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
  9. Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson
  10. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
  11. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
  12. Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
I always do my top 12 rankings a little differently than my positional rankings because here I think player value has to come into play. I may not be as high on some people on Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore--but at some point you are taking him in a draft because of the value and the potential trade outs late in the summer and early in the season. It quickly becomes situational and an examination of upside.


Let's talk.
submitted by Killtec7 to DynastyFF [link] [comments]

Recap of Today's Events (With Links + Analysis)

So, a ton of shit happened today. Here's a recap.

Notables on the COVID/IR List

Jonathan Taylor ruled OUT for Sunday. Colts RB Taylor, the bellcow RB last game, has been relegated to the COVID/IR list after fucking his now-positive girlfriend. Though he has not tested positive, he is officially out for tomorrow's showdown. Most sources have Hines as a mid-range RB2 (15-20, half PPR) and Jordan Wilkins as a FLEX option (28-36) for the week. If Taylor tests positive, he will be out for Colts v. Texans (12/6) and, depending on symptoms, potentially longer.
Beneficiaries: Nyheim Hines (mid RB2), Jordan Wilkins (FLEX) for one week guaranteed, potentially two to three weeks.
James Conner tests positive (confirmed). Steelers RB James Conner has received a (confirmed) positive test result. We do not yet know if he is asymptomatic. And because the Steelers/Ravens game might not be played, the length of Conner's absence is not currently known. He will most likely miss the Ravens and Washington (tentatively sun 12/6) under the current scheduling. Some have commented that Conner, a cancer survivor, is in the high-risk category and may experience exacerbated symptoms. This is unlikely. The issue here is immunosuppression resulting from cancer and its corollary treatment (relevant reading)—Conner, five years removed from his fight, is likely not immunocompromised.
Meanwhile, experts with updated rankings anticipate that Benny Snell will assume most of the workload. Also factoring in is Anthony McFarland, who has received complementary work with Conner healthy. We do not yet have a clear idea of how the backfield will shape up.
Beneficiaries: Benny Snell (RB18-25), McFarland (low-end FLEX option). All Steelers WRs may receive a relative increase in workload. Overall offense should be slightly downgraded, which could cancel out WR uptick in workload.
All Broncos QBs deemed high-risk contacts, ruled OUT. Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, and Blake Bortles were all deemed high-risk, close contacts to someone with a confirmed COVID case. All have been consequently ruled out for tomorrow's matchup with the Saints. Currently, it appears that WR Kendall Hinton, former Wake Forest QB, gets the nod tomorrow. Emergency QB Royce Freeman and RBs Melvin Gordon & Phillip Lindsay may also take snaps out of wildcat formation. No other notable Broncos offensive pieces have been ruled out due to COVID.
Beneficiaries: Saints D/ST (obvious top-3 option); downgrade to all position players on Broncos offense. NOTE: Hinton only has QB eligibility on ESPN. Fucking ironic
Other notable positives (past):
J.K DOBBINS and Mark Ingram, along with QB Lamar Jackson, all tested positive. Depending on symptoms, all may miss multiple games, though Dobbins & Ingram are six days removed from their last confirmed positive result. From what I've seen, the only startable position players are Gus Edwards & Mark Andrews; with RGIII at QB and facing the Steelers D/ST, both are a hard fade. NOTE: if game is played on Tuesday, Dobbins/Jackson/Ingram are all 100% out.
SAINTS LT Terron Armstead has also tested positive; impact on Saints players unknown. Hill, Thomas, Kamara, Cook, and Murray are all on track to play. The Saints are now down at least two O-Lineman (Andrus Peat is out, concussion). Slight to moderate downgrade for Hill and Murray; potential uptick for Thomas, Kamara should be relatively unaffected.
LARRY FITZGERALD is a confirmed positive case. All other fantasy-relevant offensive pieces are expected to play for Cardinals; slight boost to Kirk and Hopkins.
BRANDON AIYUK is currently on the COVID-19 list as a high-risk close contact. His status is uncertain for week 12, and Shanahan has been pessimistic regarding his likelihood of playing. If Aiyuk is sidelined, Deebo Samuel (returning from injury) should be the 49ers top target.
ADAM "Hooked on a" THIELEN has tested positive for the coronavirus, retroactive to last Monday or so. He will likely miss, but has not yet been ruled out for, the Vikings' week 12 showdown against Carolina. Justin Jefferson will play and is the obvious primary target, though Cook/Mattison will likely receive upwards of thirty carries cumulative.
FantasyPros' Updated COVID/IR List

Notable Non-COVID Injuries, Outs

Austin Ekeler has been activated off IR. Though it's still uncertain whether he plays—and what workload he would receive should he play—Ekeler has returned from a hamstring injury suffered in week 4. Kalen Ballage (ankle/knee) is currently listed as questionable. If neither RB can go, Troymaine Pope and Joshua Kelley will assume the RB workload against the Bills.
Beneficiaries: Ekeler is fringe RB1 if he plays; Ballage currently high-end RB2 (if Ekeler sits). Consensus is that Pope/Kelley would eat into eachothers' carries, making both FLEX options (w/ Pope slightly higher).
Todd Gurley has knee injury, ruled OUT. Gurley, who has tear-induced arthritis (ACL tear while playing for Georgia), has been ruled out for Sunday's tilt against the Raiders. The Falcons RB did not practice all week; there has been little news about his injury otherwise. Brian Hill and Ito Smith are the primary beneficiaries. Playing against LV (26th against the run), Hill slots in as a mid-RB2 in half PPR, though many fantasy managers are still reeling from his 15/30/0 start last year. Smith should see some touches but not enough to be startable.
Beneficiaries: Brian Hill (RB18-24), Ito Smith (~RB50). If Gurley gets shut down—a possibility given the Falcons record—Hill becomes a fringe RB2 ROS. However, since Gurley is on a one-year deal, the Falcons have little incentive to keep him benched if healthy.
Tagovailoa doubtful (likely OUT), Fitzpatrick gets start, With Tua recovering from a thumb injury, it appears as though Fitzpatrick will start against the Jets. Of further note is that Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin have both been ruled OUT, leaving a mixture of Breida, Deandre Washington, and Patrick Laird to split carries. All signs point to a relatively pass-heavy affair against the Jets, who get starting QB Sam Darnold back after a lengthly absence.
Beneficiaries: Fitzpatrick is a variable QB2 (QB13-22), Parker likely receives more targets especially with Preston Williams still out. Breida, who looks oddly like Al Horford, is a FLEX option; we do not yet know how the Dolphins backfield will shake out.

Miscellaneous Headlines & 2020 Fuckery

The San Francisco 49ers might not be able to play home games. Though this is still uncertain, a new order passed in Santa Clara County has banned all contact sports, including football. This has happened before: Stanford University had to practice at Woodside High School, which is in San Mateo County, shortly before resuming on-campus practice. The 49ers have two home games scheduled within the window of operation here, and officials have stated that pro football is INCLUDED in this order. As of now, the 49ers cannot play at Levi Stadium, though it seems certain that the NFL & 49ers will find a viable alternative.
The Lions fired their GM and Head Coach. In a long-awaited yet unexpected move, Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn are out of Detroit. Depending on the nature of Golladay's "injury," this may benefit him. And while there are no clear, immediate beneficiaries here, there's a decent chance that the locker room is happy with this overhaul and/or the interim HC may run a more potent offense. Stay tuned.
And finally, some other less-notable happenings that you should still be aware of:
Let me know if I missed anything (in the comments). I'll add it immediately.
submitted by SontagWrong to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

[Game Thread] #2 Notre Dame vs #19 UNC (11/27/2020 @ 3:30pm EST).

Hello Irish Faithful!
 
A lot of fans consider this game to be the final test before the ACCCG. UNC has a high powered offense that Notre Dame's defense looks to shut down today. With Notre Dame suffering several injuries on their O-line the backups look to step in and continue the great game play of this year.
 
LIVE UPDATES:
#2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-0) vs #19 UNC Tar-Heels (6-2)
 
1st 2nd 3rd 4th Total
Notre Dame 14 3 7 7 31
UNC 14 3 0 0 17
 
1st Quarter:
 
2nd Quarter:
 
3rd Quarter:
 
4th Quarter:
 
 
Time:
November 27th 2020 @ 3:30 EST
 
Location:
Kenan Memorial Stadium
 
Weather:
65 degrees and sunny
 
Ways to Watch:
TV: ABC
Stream:
 
Odds:
Game odds
 
Headlines:
No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 19 North Carolina: Who, what, when, where, why and by how much?
What To Look For: #2 Notre Dame vs #19 North Carolina
 
Previous Game Thread: #4 Notre Dame vs Boston College W 45-31 , November 14th, 2020
 
Next Game: Syracuse vs #2 Notre Dame, December 12th, 2020 2:30 pm EST.
 
 
Join us over at our Post Game Thread to continue the discussion after the game!
 
 
GO IRISH!!!
submitted by Shillelagh_Law to notredamefootball [link] [comments]

Emmanuel Sanders should be targeted in every league, even with the eventual return of Michael Thomas.

I know Emmanuel Sanders isn't the most attractive name in fantasy football, especially with him projected to lose appeal once Michael Thomas is back in the lineup for the saints soaking up all those glorious targets. But i think there is a real opportunity for him not only to produce at a fringe wr1 level in choice matchups this season, but also be had for pennies on the dollar in the next upcoming weeks.
Heres why,
Coming off his bye he will be drawing tough matchups the next 4 weeks against, CAR, CHI, TB, and SF.
These teams are allowing the 5th,2nd,7th, and 9th least ppg to opposing WRs.
With MT back during that span, Manny may perform outside of the wr2 range and have what i believe to be his lowest value of the season.
This is when we buy.
After that the saints schedule will open up and they will face ATL,DEN,ATL,PHI,KC,MIN. All favorable matchups in the top 10 ppg to opposing wrs, besides the stout KC defense.
Lets focus on the Falcons, as they will play them twice and these are must win inner division games for the saints who may be competing with Tompa Bay for that top spot in the NFC south.
THE ATLANTA FALCONS. The terrible ,horrible, atrocious shit show they call a secondary, should be exploited every week matchup Atlanta Falcons.
Pair that horrible secondary with an efficient air attack (when Matt Ryan has all his weapons) and we have a fantasy gold mine via shootout.
lets look at the numbers,
Wr2s Vs ATL
player receptions rec yards yds/avg rec tds 0.5 PPR points
DK Metcalf 4 95 23.8 1 17.5
CeeDee Lamb 6 106 17.7 0 14.5
Anthony Miller 2 41 20.5 1 12.0
Darius Sheppard* 2 21 10.5 0 3.1
DJ Moore 4 93 23.2 1 17.3
Justin Jefferson 9 166 18.4 2 35.1
Total Fantasy pts allowed comes out at 99.5 pts which is good for the 12th best wr on the season, assuming that Diggs, Hill, Amari, and Lamb all amass enough points today to bring their total above 99.5.( Lamb needs the most at 14)

*The packers game was kind of a fluke too. Felt odd listing any wr as the wr2 for the packers with a depleted wr room leaving MVS as the wr1 by default. The packers spread the ball around through the air with Tonyan, Williams, and Jones being the main recipients and their stat line, (only listed fantasy points gained by receptions for both RBs ),was

player receptions rec yards yds/avg rec tds 0.5 PPR points
Robert Tonyan 6 98 16.3 3 30.8
Jamaal Williams 8 95 11.9 0 13.5*
Aaron Jones 5 40 8 1 12.5*
Excluding Darrius Sheppard's outlier the average wr2 performance vs. ATL is good for

receptions rec yards yds/avg rec tds 0.5 PPR points
teams wr2 5 100 20 1 18.5
that fantasy ppg plants the falcons opposing wr2 ppg between Tyreek Hill and Amari Cooper.
With everything outlined above I truly believe Emmanuel can produce wr1 numbers those weeks.
If you're looking for a sleeper with legitimate wr1/2 potential , who could possibly be traded for next to nothing Manny Sandies is your man. He has earned the trust of future HOF Brees in MT's absence and could be heavily involved in the passing game with favorable matchups weeks 11 and beyond.
submitted by marlonmackaroni to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

EXTENSIVE write up on Missing and Murdered Indigenous women- Is there a serial killer on the Yakama Reservation?

Missing and Murdered Indigenous women
If you have spent any time reading about true crime, you probably know that American Indian/ Native American women go missing from the United States and Canada at alarming rates. On some reservations, women experience violence and are victims of homicide at 10x the rate of women in other communities. It is a complex issue with prejudice and jurisdictional issues playing major roles. If you want to know more about the root of these issues, I suggest Missing and Murdered” podcast by Indigenous Canadian journalist Connie Walker, who explains the issues much better than I ever could; that podcast is linked below. Today, I want to highlight the stories of some of these women, specifically those missing from the Yakama community.
Background
Washington state is home to the fifth largest Indian reservation in the United States, the Yakama reservation, which is home to the Klickitat, Palus, Wallawalla, Wenatchi, Whishram, Wanapum, and Yakama people. According to the US Census Bureau, only the Osage, Puyallup (also in Washington state), Navajo, and Choctaw reservations are more populous. The Yakama reservation is located in South Central Washington state, just south of the city of Yakima. Of the 31,000 people who live on the reservation, 11,000 are enrolled tribal members. Most people who live on the reservation claim Hispanic/Latino, white, or mixed-race ancestry, but Hispanic is by far the most common ethnic group. There are also small Filipino, Japanese, and Korean communities nearby. The Yakama reservation is located just south of the town of Yakima, Washington, a large farming community of 100,000 people. Apples, cherries, peaches, pears, and hops are all grown in the dry surrounding region. Harvest time brings thousands of migrant workers to the area, so the population is always in flux.
Outside of Yakima is the town of Union Gap (Pop. 8000), which is partially on the reservation, and partially off it. There are two other proper towns on reservation, Toppenish (pop. 8000) and Wapato (pop. 5000). Other small communities such as Satus, Harrah, White Swan, and Granger all boast several hundred residents each. All in all, the Yakama nation consists of 2,200 square miles of sprawling, rural land stretching from south central Washington nearly to the Oregon border. But from this unassuming patch of high desert and grassland, more than 30 Native women have gone missing/were murdered. If we add Native men to the equation, the number jumps to nearly 50 unsolved disappearances, deaths, and murders. If we add the deaths and disappearances of non-native people missing from the reservation, the number grows yet again. Although the land is vast, the tribal population is small. From my estimates over .5% of native people on the reservation are missing or murdered. Like many tribal communities, unemployment and poverty is common, appropriate housing is scare, and according to the tribal council "disregard for the rule of law and general civil unrest" as well as gun violence and substance abuse is common. In 2019 a youth curfew was instated after a particularly bad shooting.
According to the Washington State Patrol, the Yakama nation has the highest percentage of missing people of any Native community in the state, even though they are not the most populous. The FBI created a task force in 2009 to investigate the possibility of serial killer among the Yakama, but the investigation determined that a serial killer was unlikely, but not impossible. This was because the causes of death were so different from victim to victim. The investigation did close two cases on the reservation after DNA on both women linked them to a man serving life in an Oregon prison, but the man is not believed to be responsible for any other crimes in the inquiry. Whether a serial killer is loose on tribal land or not, this issue is complex and long standing and demonstrates how much substance abuse, domestic violence, and random crime affect the Native communities in this county at 10x the rate of other communities. Some progress has been made such as state bill 2951 which allows Washington state authorities to track cases and help investigate and search for missing individuals on tribal land. Because tribal lands are usually under federal jurisdiction, state authorities are not able to help, despite being more familiar with the area than the FBI. This is only one small step in the right direction and although awareness is growing, the epidemic of missing and murdered indigenous people will not simply go away. The mystery of vanishing people still stands.
Many people have heard of this epidemic, but few know the names of the victims; today it is time to change that. Below are the profiles of 35 women who are missing, murdered, or who have suffered mysterious deaths. For some of the women very little information is available. The list below is not necessarily complete. If you know of other unsolved cases let me know in the comments below.
Quick guide:
Yakima- large town near, but not on, the reservation
Yakama- the tribe and people group
NOTE: all cases organized most to least recent and are broken down into missing, murdered, and mysterious categories
Missing
Tiana Cloud went missing from Yakima on April 7th, 2018. She was 17 years old at the time. She may be in local area, and she may have been located. She is a Native female, 5'4 ft, 162 lbs., brown eyes and brown hair. She has large dimples. Tiana was last seen Yakima WA. Very little information is available. Yakima police are investigating.
Freda Knowsgun or Knowshisgun has been missing since October 18th, 2016. Freda was from Montana and was registered with the Crow Agency. In the months before her disappearance her family reported that she was acting strangely and began drifting around the Northwest and spending time in southern Washington state. Freda was still close to her aunt and talked to her children sometimes, but was distancing herself from the rest of her family. Freda was last known to be at a customer service desk at a Walmart in Kennewick, Washington. Freda used her cell phone to call a friend to ask for money. She wanted to travel back home to Montana to spend Halloween with her children. Freda’s friend sent her the money but the money was never picked up. When she called Freda 15 minutes later, Freda’s cell phone was disconnected and no one has heard from her since. She did not return to Montana for Halloween or for her aunt’s funeral in November and she was reported missing. Freda’s family believes that she was abusing drugs at the time of her disappearance and they believe that Freda’s new friends in the drug scene may be involved with her disappearance. Law enforcement has reported that Freda’s new friends have not cooperated with the investigation into her disappearance. Freda may have been seen in Billings, Montana in December 2016 and she may be traveling with a black male named Mike. Freda is reported to be a 34-year-old Native American female with dark brown hair that is waist length which she wears in a ponytail or high bun. She has brown eyes, a scar on her right elbow, weights 160 lbs. and stands 5’5” in height. She has the following tattoos: the names "Lyrical", "Trinity" and "Mason" on her back between her shoulder blades, the cartoon character Mickey Mouse with a basketball on her right calf, and a flower on her right shoulder. She may use the last name "KnowsHisGun" and many accounts refer to her by that name. Her case is being investigated by Crow Agency Bureau of Indian Affairs.
Rosalita Faye Longee disappeared from her grandmother’s home in Wapato, Washington on June 30th, 2015 at 10 pm. Rosalita who went by Rose was 18 years old at the time. She is an enrolled member of the Fort Peck Assiniboine and Sioux Tribes in Montana but had lived with her grandmother on the Yakama reservation since age 2. Rose visited her grandmother on the night of June 30th asking to stay with her but her grandmother refused as Rose was high on drugs at the time, and she had a rule that Rose could only live there when she wasn’t using. Rose may have been with friends at the time. Rose had struggled with addiction for years and had been in and out of rehab centers since age 16. This was the last time Rose was ever seen alive. Rosalita is described as a Native American female, 5’6”- 5’8” in height and about 130-140 lbs. She has black hair, brown eyes, pierced ears and lip, and scars on both wrists and both her chest. At the time of her disappearance she enjoyed taking photos and posting them on her Facebook page. Yakama Nation tribal police are investigating.
Roberta Jean Raines, 19 was last seen in Toppenish on July 10th, 2001. Roberta was with a man named Jose Merced Zamora at that time. In 2002, this man killed a teenage boy and fled the county going to Mexico. Roberta was apparently with him at the time. It was around this time that Roberta’s family realized they had not seen her in a while and they reported her missing. Jose was arrested in 2007 in Idaho and taken it custody for the murder of the boy. Jose Merced Zamora told the authorities that the last time he saw Roberta she was in Mexico and that they parted ways. Authorities do not believe this story. Roberta is described as Native American female, 5’2”-5’3” in height and 120 lbs. She has very arched eyebrows. Toppenish Police are investigating.
Karen Louise Johnley, sometimes referred to as Karen Johnley-Wallahee, was reported missing November 7th or 8th, 1987 by her cousin. She was last seen by a friend at the Lazy R Tavern in Harrah on the Yakama reservation. Karen’s cousin describes Karen as a 29-year-old female, five feet tall and 100 lbs. She was last seen wearing pink barrettes in her hair, a pink tee shirt, a Levi’s brand denim jacket, and white tennis shoes. She had long black hair and brown eyes. Her cousin expressed worried about the person Karen was last seen with. No pictures are available of Karen and she does not even have a Charley Project page. Tribal police are investigating. She remains a missing person.
Daisy Mae Tallman or Daisy Mae Heath age 29, was reported missing on October 29th, 1987. When her family was questioned it came to light that no one had seen Daisy since the end of August, 1987. Daisy’s sister remembers her as very independent, often leaving the reservation to visit friends and family on a different reservation in Warm Springs, Oregon, or leaving the area to go fishing. Daisy was a high school basketball player and was the youngest of 6 sisters who were all raised by their maternal grandparents. At the time of her disappearance, Daisy was staying with relatives in either Toppenish or White Swan. A year after she disappeared a set of keys and a backpack believed to be Tallman’s/Heath’s were found in a closed area of a reservation called Soda Springs. 7 years after her disappearance she was declared legally dead. One source mentions that one of Daisy’s sisters was murdered before her disappearance but I could find no corroborating source. Daisy is described as a Native American female aged 29 with black hair that extended down her back and brown eyes. She was 5’5’ and weighted 185 lbs. She also has given birth in the past. No pictures are available of Daisy and she does not even have a Charley Project page. The FBI is investigating. She remains a missing person.
Janice Marie Hannigan a sophomore at White Swan high school was the oldest of 7 children. In 1971 Janice’s parents had recently separated and Janice was living with her father in Harrah, Washington but visited her mother and younger siblings often. Janice was nominated to be Queen of the Veteran’s day parade in November 1971 and the newspaper even ran an article about her and the other nominated girls. According to her interview in the paper, Janice enjoyed beadwork, cooking, and watching football. A few weeks later on December 21st Janice was admitted to the hospital for the treatment of contusions on her head and torso. On December 24th she was released from the hospital in stable condition. The cause of Janice’s injuries, as well as the location she was treated at is unknown. Janice never made it home from the hospital; this was the last time anyone ever saw Janice alive.
Strangely, this was not the first time Janice had been reported missing. Janice may have been reported missing in February or March of 1971, although she was determined to be visiting relatives in Idaho with her father at that time. Because of this some agencies report that Janice went missing March 1st 1971 but that is not accurate.
Some agencies report that Janice is a possible runaway as she was upset about her parent’s separation, although Janice had never runaway before. One Law Enforcement office reports that Janice’s father is a person of interest in her case, but Janice’s sister Traci Clark denies this notion and says it is “not possible.” Traci was only 8 years old the last time she saw Janice, but she still looks for her big sister any chance she gets.
Murdered
Angela Marie Heath of Toppenish, aged 41 died on April 5th, 2019. Her death is an unsolved hit and run. Very little information is available. Washington state patrol is investigating. She may (key word may) be related to Daisy Tallman-Health located above.
Rosenda Strong a member of the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation in Oregon, was last seen on October 2nd, 2018 climbing into an acquaintance’s car, reportedly an older Nissan, heading to Legends Casino in Toppenish. Legends is an alcohol-free resort and Casino on the reservation popular with locals and tourists alike. Rosenda never returned from the Casino and sadly her body was found in a discarded refrigerator nine months after she was last seen in July 2019. Her death was ruled a homicide but no other details have been released. Rosenda’s sister said that at first tribal police did not take the disappearance seriously as Rosenda had past problems with drugs and they believed she would come home soon. Rosenda’s sister, Cissy Reyes nee Strong, believes that the murderers are the fellow tribespeople Rosenda was last with and complains that she still sees them “walking the reservation free” and refusing to talk. Cissy remembers her sister for her big, loud laugh and she hopes that someday Rosenda will get justice. The FBI is investigating.
Jedidah Moreno was last seen alive in September, 2018 by her family in the city of Yakima, which is not on tribal land. The 30-year-old was reported missing in late November 2018. Her body was found in early December and she had been dead at least a few days. She had died from a gunshot wound in a rural part of the reservation that was closed to non-tribal members. One report (a blog) claims that Jedidah was a member of the Yakama nation but no other sources state this, so take this information with a grain of salt. Her case remains unsolved. City of Yakima police and the FBI are investigating. Little information is available.
Linda Dave 39 of White Swan, was last seen alive in late 2016 or early 2017. On February 15th 2017, a woman was found dead under a bridge in Toppenish. It was determined that the woman died from a gunshot wound to the stomach and had been dead approximately six weeks. The woman was identified via DNA as Linda Dave. Linda was a mother and grandmother who enjoyed spending time with family, cooking, and dancing. She is the niece of Janice Hannigan, the first woman detailed in this piece. One local funeral home called Heggie’s has a website where people can share condolences to the family or stories about the deceased. In a cruel twist of fate one of the messages on Linda’s page is from murder victim Rosenda Strong. The FBI is investigating Dave’s case.
Minnie Andy was a 31-year-old Yakama woman who enjoyed fishing and swimming. Minnie was found beaten and close to death near 70 Egan Road in Wapato, Washington on July 9th, 2017. She had been badly assaulted earlier that morning and she tragically succumbed to her injuries at Astria Regional Medical Center in Yakima several hours later. Her cause of death was blunt force trauma. Christopher Lagmay was indicted for her murder shortly thereafter but he would be released from jail in 2019 without prejudice, meaning if new evidence arises, he could be re-tried. Her murder is still unsolved.
Destiny Lloyd, aged 23 disappeared on Christmas day 2017 from her home in Wapato. Her body was found in Harrah, Washington four days later. Initially, it looked like Destiny had died after slipping and falling on the concrete, causing a head wound but a full autopsy would reveal that her death was a homicide and that she died from blunt force trauma. Destiny worked at Legends Casino as a childcare worker. Her co workers remember her fondly and hope her case will be solved. The FBI is investigating.
Naoma George mother of six from Wapato, Washington was found dead in 2013 from trauma to her abdomen. Her death was ruled a homicide. Naoma was a traditional Yakama who did bead work and gathered traditional plants to keep the Yakama culture alive. Naoma was laid to rest in a traditional ceremony at the Longhouse surrounded by friends and family. Her case is unsolved and little information is available. Yakama Nation tribal police and the FBI are investigating.
Barbara Celestine aged 44 was a tribal member who lived in Wapato, Washington. She was found dead of blunt force trauma outside a housing project in town in 2013. Her death was ruled a homicide. The Yakama Nation police and the FBI are investigating the murder. Very little information is available.
Skeletal remains found in late 2008 in a remote part of the Yakama Reservation are believed to be those of a murder victim. The Doe was unknown until the FBI Seattle office mentioned the remains in early May 2009, when announcing the results of the FBI's approximately two-year-long analysis of reservation deaths which was spurred on by a March 2006 meeting with then-United States Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. Until that point the fact that a doe was found was not public knowledge. The bones were found in a remote area near the backpack of missing person Daisy Mae Heath (Tallman). In early May 2009, Special Agents were awaiting mitochondrial DNA test results on those remains, which they said then might be those of Daisy Mae Tallman/Heath. The tests were inconclusive and there was insufficient evidence to conclude that the bones belonged to Daisy. The FBI has not released further information on the remains. This Jane Doe is on no public databases (NAMUS, Doe Project) as far as I can tell. The FBI is investigating.
The triple homicide of Charmaine Sanchey, 47, Toni Marie Green, 43, and Steve Alvarado, 52 is still unsolved. Their beaten and stabbed bodies were found in a small trailer outside Toppenish on Jan. 16, 2003 by their landlord who came over to collect their rent check. He found the women dead in the bedroom and Steve dead in the main living area. The trailer was on the reservation but it is unclear which victims (if any) were tribal members. Authorities say that they have few leads and few suspects. Later, Charmaine Sanchey’s brother, Arthur Joseph Sanchey, was the primary suspect, but was acquitted of charges in July 2004. The brutal triple homicide is still a mystery.
Sandra Lee Smiscon did not die on the reservation but I believe her case deserves a spot in this piece. In the year 2003, Sandra was a 45-year-old mother of 3 children who split her time between Wapato and Seattle. After high school, Sandra got a job in a nursing home and mothered three children. After her personal relationships fell apart Sandra became lost and her children were placed in the custody of their fathers and other family members. She often traveled to Seattle and did odd jobs but was basically drifting around. According to her brother Walter, Sandra was a “party animal” who loved having a good time but sometimes let the drinking get the better of her. Despite her flaws he remembers his sister as a somewhat shy individual with a huge, bright smile who taught her younger daughter the art of traditional dance. Sandra traveled home regularly for family events and holidays but never stayed for long.
One day Sandra and her companions were sleeping near 4th and Yesler streets in Seattle when a man, angered by nearby fireworks shot into the homeless camp aimlessly, injuring a few people and killing Sandra. Her 2003 murder is still unsolved. Sandra’s name is part of the Fallen Leaves memorial, a place of remembrance for deceased homeless individuals as a way to give them dignity and a place to be remembered. Her case is still unsolved. The suspect is described as young man in his 20-30s with a dark complexion but of unknown race. Seattle police department is investigating.
Shari Dee Sampson Elwell age 30, had not been seen for weeks when her battered and sexually mutilated body was found in a remote area by hunters near White Swan. Her body was found during February 1992 in the middle of a blizzard. She had been beaten, mutilated, and strangled. Little has been done to solve her case and very little information is available.
Skeletal unidentified Native woman believed to be in her late 20s or early 30s were found on Feb. 16, 1988, near Parker Dam in Union Gap. Her cause of death has not been determined but her case has been ruled a homicide. She had been dead from 2-10 months. She is described as a Native female, 25-40 years old with dark brown hair that had been bleached light brown in the front. She was wearing lavender colored pants, a long sleeve shirt with a Mexican label, and brown bowling shoes, one with a black sole and one with a white sole. She was slight and short 4’11” to 5’1”. She is not Daisy Tallman/Heath or Karen Johnley. Despite her heritage she is NOT believed to be Yakama; she may be from Mexico and perhaps a migrant worker as her clothing had Mexican labels.
JoAnne Betty (Wyman) John the 44-year-old mother of eleven children, was reported missing on August 1st, 1988. A partial skeleton was a discovered in February 1991 which was determined to be John’s. Her cause of death was ruled “homicidal violence.” Little information is available in her case. The FBI are investigating.
Rozelia Lou (Tulee) Sohappy, 31, of Brownstown was last seen alive New Year’s Eve of 1988. Her partially clothed body was found March 13, 1989, in a remote ravine along the south slope of Ahtanum Ridge north of Brownstown. She was identified through dental records, and an autopsy concluded she had been strangled. Very little information is available.
Jenece Marie Wilson was 20 years old in August 1987. The young woman who lived in Toppenish, when to a party one night and then left the next morning to hitch hike to her boyfriend’s place in Sunnyside, Washington but she never made it. On August 9th a farmer found the body of a woman in his orchard which was so severely beaten it was hard to establish her identity. Dental records confirmed that the body belonged to Jenece and she had died from a blow to the head. In 2009, twenty-two years later DNA evidence was run through the system and there was a hit. The DNA matched an Oregon convict, Samuel Posada. Samuel had attended the same high school as Jenece but the two did not appear to know each other. He was arrested and charged with murder and rape. Strangely, Posada waived his right to jury trial but was acquitted of all charges by the judge in his 2011 trial. Jenece’s case has been cold ever since.
Babette Crystall Greene was 26 years old and lived in the town of Toppenish but was last seen in Yakima, Washington in October 1986. A member of the Warm Springs tribe in Oregon, her skeletal remains were found during the summer of 1987 off North Track Road near Wapato, Washington. Her cause of death is listed as “homicidal violence.” Very little information is available.
Clydell Alice Sampson age 25 of Klickitat had not been seen alive since sometime in 1984 when her skeleton was found by hunters near Hambre Butte, south of Granger, Washington in December, 1986. Her death was ruled a homicide and she died from a gunshot wound. Very little information is available; there are no pictures available of Clydell.
Mavis Josephine McKay was a member of the Confederated tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation in Oregon. She was 33 years old when she was found murdered in an irrigation ditch on August 13th, 1957 in Satus, a very isolated area of the reservation. Because her case is so old, very little information is available.
Mysterious deaths
Echo Kay Littlewolf was 31 years old when she was last seen alive. Echo is described as a tomboy who loved camping, animals, and being outside. Echo was homeless at the time of her disappearance and lived in a tent on the reservation but contacted relatives often, at least twice a week. She would pop into her parents’ or grandparents’ house to shower and do odd jobs for money for friends and relatives but always returned to her nomadic lifestyle. On August 15th, 2017 Littlewolf’s grandmother had not heard from her in a week and contacted Echo’s mother, Jeanette Osborne, who drove to her daughter’s campsite. As soon as she smelled decomposition, she called tribal authorities who found the body of Echo Kay Littlewolf. Her body was badly degraded due to the hot weather. Her death was ruled “natural causes” and Echo was cremated. Jeanette believes little investigation was done because Echo had used drugs in the past. According to Jeanette, her daughter’s body looked like she had been standing and then fell over after being hit with an object, nevertheless an autopsy was never ordered by authorities. Echo’s family now wishes she was buried and an autopsy could have been performed. Her suspicious death has never been solved.
Angela Babette Billy, 41, of Pendleton, Oregon was an enrolled member of the Yakama Nation. She also is known as Angela Shippentower and Babette Shippentower. According to the one article I could find Angela who went by “Babette” was a victim of domestic violence. Right before she went missing Babette confided to family members that her boyfriend was abusing her. Right after that her boyfriend left her to be with a woman he had been seeing on the side. Babette’s body was found in late May 2013 in the Umatilla River near Mission, Oregon. She had been missing for over a week. She was found by two people on horseback while they were conducting a private search for her. The area was accessible only by foot, horse or four-wheelers, from one side of the river. The area in which she was found was behind the home of her boyfriend’s new romantic interest. This woman, who remains unknown to the public, also had a reputation for drugs and violent behavior. Billy’s cause of death was drowning and while her death has not been ruled a homicide it is considered “suspicious” and not simply an accident. According to family members police did not take her disappearance very seriously at first- a mistake that may have cost Babette her life.
Alice Ida Looney, 38 of Toppenish was reported missing after she was last seen in Wapato in the early morning hours around Aug. 16 or 17, 2004. A hunter found her body Nov. 30, 2005, wedged under a tree on a small island in Satus Creek, about 12 miles southeast of Toppenish. Looney had family on the Cowlitz and Puyallup reservations. The FBI lists the cause of her death as inconclusive. High school and college athlete Rosy Fish, a distance relative of Looney’s, ran four races at a state track tournament (and won 3). Each race was dedicated to a missing or murdered female native relative of Fish’s, which shows the breadth of this issue. Fish’s actions have spurred other native athletes to do similar tributes. Looney’s death is still unsolved. Looney’s family also says they were never interviewed by law enforcement.
Teresa R. Stahi age 25. July 27th 1987 marks the day Teresa Stahi’s body was found drowned in a canal. Her clothed body was pulled from a fish screen in a diversion canal off Toppenish Creek south of Granger. An autopsy concluded she drowned and had been in the water less than 12 hours. The Yakima County Sheriff’s Office said it ruled out foul play. However, an FBI memo listed Stahi’s case as a “mysterious death matter.” Law enforcement now says her death is “inconclusive.” Very little information is available.
Sara Dee Winnier age 24 had recently moved back to the reservation after living in California. She was found at 3:30 a.m. July 22, 1985, sitting upright in the driver’s seat of a burning car off McDonald Road about half a mile from U.S. Highway 97. Her body was badly burned and the coroner used dental records to identify her. Winnier lived in a remote part of the reservation and worked at the Save More Grocery in Wapato. Her death is suspicious and unsolved. Little information is available.
Celestine Spencer, 21 sometimes called Celestine Yallup, of Wapato had been missing two weeks when her body was found at the bottom of a gully in a field off McCullough Road along the north slope of Ahtanum Ridge. She was found Nov. 11, 1982, at the bottom of a hill near a field. Her death while somewhat suspicious was determined to be hypothermia was deemed a probable accident. Celestine’s aunt was awarded custody of her son, Roland, who had some disabilities and various medical problems. Tragically, less than two years later Roland (age 3) disappeared in a child abduction in Wapato and has not been seen since. His Charley Project page is here- http://charleyproject.org/case/roland-jack-spencer-iii.
Lesora Yvette Eli was only 19 years old when a farmer found her fully clothed body along Parton Road near Toppenish on Feb. 2, 1982. She was face down in a drainage ditch. While the County Coroner’s Office listed the death as accidental drowning, FBI investigators claim it is a possible homicide. Her death has never been solved and very little information is available.
Sheila Pearl Lewis, a 33-year-old social worker who worked at DSHS in Yakima was found dead in August of 1980 near Parker Dam in Union Gap. An autopsy showed that she died of massive internal injuries most likely from being hit by a large car or truck. Even though her death is most likely a hit and run, it is classified as suspicious rather than a homicide. Sheila lived on the reservation. Very little information is available in her case.
What happened to these people? Is there a serial killer on the loose? Or simply an epidemic of violence towards women? Hopefully, these cases can one day be solved.
I have been thinking of writing up the stories of missing men and boys on the reservation, if you would be interested in a write up on that let me know in the comments below.
If you are interested in this issue as a whole, I suggest this podcast by Canadian journalist Connie Walker who explains and dives deeply into the issues discussed in the piece. https://www.cbc.ca/radio/findingcleo/missing-murdered-who-killed-alberta-williams-1.4556030#:~:text=Sparked%20by%20a%20chilling%20tip,in%20British%20Columbia%20in%201989.
If you are interested in the cases of other missing Native Americans, my write ups on the Teekah Lewis and Bryce Herda cases can be found here on my reddit profile. https://www.reddit.com/useQuirky-Motor
Special thanks to these sources:
https://www.yakimaherald.com/news/local/murdered-missing-and-mysterious-deaths-of-native-girls-and-women-on-and-around-the-yakama/article_46068a45-4f5f-5f8e-b37d-198fd98ac5a5.html
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/we-have-so-many-missing-people-coroner-tests-remains-found-on-yakima-river-island-as-families-wait-hope/
https://kimatv.com/news/local/over-one-third-of-missing-indigenous-women-in-wa-disappeared-from-yakima-county-wsp-says
http://lostandmissinginindiancountry.com/Newsletters/July2019.pdf
https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/seattle/press-releases/2009/se050609-1.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yakama_Indian_Reservation
http://www.yakamanation-nsn.gov/
https://www.thesciencehippy.com/health/mmiw-the-women-she-represents
http://charleyproject.org/
submitted by Quirky-Motor to UnresolvedMysteries [link] [comments]

Welcome to Gettysburg (Day Three)

Day One Here
Day Two Here
JULY 3RD
A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
The night fighting on Culp’s Hill was slow and torturous. The Confederate assault from Johnson’s division had to cross rough terrain and a river before it even started going uphill, which at night was an incredibly miserable task even without Union troops firing at them. Union skirmishers played hell with their progress, and after brushing them aside, Johnson bumped into a defensive line that his Union counterpart Geary had spent all day perfecting.
As mentioned yesterday, their only success was to grab tiny footholds on the Union side of Rock Creek, which ran between the two hills.
As the fighting died away and the bone weary soldiers on both sides crashed asleep hard, Lee plotted. He smelled blood; on July 1st, they’d carved up the Union men good and drove them from the field. Yesterday, on the Union left, they’d wrecked a Union corps under Sickles, smashed into the Union center and almost broke it (damn those blue belly reinforcements showing up in the knick of time), and even gained a toehold on the Union right. The men’s morale was high. Lee decided to repeat yesterday’s plan, but better executed. Simultaneous attacks on both flanks should overwhelm them, and J.E.B. Stuart could make it up to all of them by chasing down the shattered Army of the Potomac to scoop up all the heavy guns and supplies and wounded that could not retreat rapidly. To which end, Lee sent Stuart on a super wide flanking attack around the Union right so as to be in position to strike at the right moment. Lee generated the orders in written form and sent them off by messenger to his corps commanders.
Meanwhile, Meade had another war council face to face with his generals. They decided to stand pat, to neither attack the Confederate positions nor retreat back towards Washington. The terrain massively favored them and Lee would (more likely than not) walk into their gunsights again.
A defensive stance, however, doesn’t mean pure passivity. A few hours after the Confederate assault petered out and Lee’s decision was made, the Union started a counterattack on a small scale.
————————————————————————
DAWN
At dawn, the Union right flared up. Fresh troops had marched in overnight and Meade wanted his damn hill back. The extreme end of the Confederate left flank (which is of course opposite the Union right) found itself getting hammered in front of Culp’s Hill by artillery from the Baltimore Pike. Clearly, such a bombardment was meant to be followed up with an assault to retake the bridgehead.
Johnson, having received his orders from Lee and being under the impression that Longstreet was attacking in tandem a mile and a half away on the other side of the hills, attacked Culp’s Hill again before the Union could attack him first. The plan was what the plan was; pressure here, successful or not, was needed for someone to break through somewhere. But Longstreet wasn’t attacking. Later on, Longstreet would claim to have never received the order to advance, but the sources I have assert this is untrue- he received the order, he just didn’t do anything about it. Instead of spending the night getting his troops on line to attack Little Round Top and the southern chunk of Cemetery Ridge, he just sat tight and did nothing. Oceans of ink have been spilled over the years speculating as to why. The Lost Cause narrative asserts that Longstreet was a Yankee-loving turncoat who deliberately sabotaged Lee’s plan and lost the battle on purpose. Others think that Longstreet's conviction that attacking here was insane and that they should fall back and look for battle somewhere else on more favorable terms had been strengthened by the results of July 2nd, and as such was dragging his heels trying to not attack again. Or maybe it was just the general haze of Civil War era incompetence taking its toll again.
————————————————————————
MORNING
As Johnson’s men gamely attacked the untakeable Culp’s Hill and were cut down by accurate rifle fire and close range cannon fire, Lee hunted down Longstreet to demand an explanation for his borderline insubordinate refusal to attack.
Longstreet pitched his idea again. He’d spent all night scouting the Union line. The enemy line was unbreakable. They shouldn’t try to attack them here. They should slip around the Union left, south of Big Round Top, to threaten the Union supply lines. Do that, they would make the Union respond to them, fight them on more equal terms. That’s the plan Longstreet had been preparing for all night, not a suicidal-
Lee cut him off with a raised fist. There would be no tricky maneuver around the flank. They would assault the Union line under the present conditions.
To the north, Johnson was still getting his teeth kicked in. Lee sent orders to call off the assault, but it would take a while for the messenger to get there and for Johnson to get word to his brigades to stand down and fall back. Meanwhile, across the way on Cemetery Ridge, Meade stalked his line, double checking all the positions for any confusions or errors to correct, emitting confidence and good cheer.
Lee scoped out the Union center personally, being in the area anyway. His complex double flanking maneuver wasn't working. A new plan was needed.
Lee figured that Meade had reinforced Little Round Top and the surrounding area yesterday, and that those troops hadn’t gone anywhere since. The Union defense at Culp’s Hill has been similarly fierce that morning, fierce enough to threaten Johnson with an offensive. If both flanks were strong... the center must be weak. Yesterday, a small Confederate brigade had crossed the Emmitsburg road under fire and smashed into the Union line on Cemetery Ridge, just south of Cemetery Hill. They had straight up routed the enemy- had there been more men available to back them up and follow through, that small brigade might have won the battle outright instead of being pushed back as they’d been.
Lee was satisfied. The Union center was brittle, undermanned, and the best point to hit it was at that same place.
Meanwhile, J.E.B. Stuart was stepping off on his flanking ride.
————————————————————————
LATE MORNING
Johnson’s last big push up Culp’s Hill was heroic. By that time, all of them knew how strong the Union position was. They surely walked into this with their eyes open.
A three brigade front set up for a shock attack, backed up by four more to exploit the hoped-for opening. Among them was the famous Stonewall Brigade, Jackson's old unit that he’d raised up and trained personally before being tapped for higher command. The Stonewall Brigade was, arguably, the elite of the Confederate army. The year before, they’d outmaneuvered and outfought a Union stab at Richmond coming through the Shenandoah valley.
The charge was cut down and butchered like all the others, and Johnson fell back.
Williams, whose batteries on the Baltimore Pike had kicked things off that morning, got a little overexcited and counterattacked without orders. His orders to attack the Confederate flank left his subordinates sickened with dread, but were obeyed nonetheless. Once the Union counterattack was butchered in retaliation by the entrenched Confederates, combat on the Union right ceased after six straight hours of gory, hopeless combat.
Meanwhile, Confederate artillery under the command of Colonel Alexander set itself up on a mile wide front, all carefully sited and positioned both for protection and for good lines of sight on the Union center. A brief but fierce artillery duel kicked off as each side tried to knock out the other’s firing points before the big moment, but was soon cut off to preserve ammo.
Lee mustered his available forces, bringing in troops that were only now straggling in and combining them with some units that had fought the day before. It was a haphazard and frankly half-assed piece of staff work- veteran units who hadn’t fought at all in the last two days were left in reserve, while exhausted troops who’d already suffered 50% casualties were included. Many of the brigades who were to charge Cemetery Ridge had green colonels in charge because their generals had been killed or wounded the day before. The gap between the northern half of the assaulting force and the southern half was four football fields long, and nobody seemed to notice or care. The division commander to lead the north side of the assault, General Pettigrew, was selected not for any rational consideration or advantage, but because he happened to be standing nearby when the decision was being made. Longstreet, who by this point wanted nothing to do with any of it, was placed in overall command. It took a few hours to organize this clusterfuck into something resembling a coherent unit- three divisions spread over a mile wide front, with Pickett on the left, Pettigrew on the right, and Trimble behind them to provide some depth to the big push.
There is no particularly good reason why the upcoming Pickett’s Charge is known as “Pickett’s Charge”. Pickett was not actually in charge of it, or even in charge of most of it. He was a division commander who had never seen proper combat before- in every battle since 1861, his unit had been held in reserve or absent. This was to be his first chance to get in this war. I suspect it’s known as Pickett’s Charge because he and his men were Virginians, and it was fellow Virginians who would pour over the battle to find out why the wrong side won. Accordingly, they conceived of it as being a Virginian affair, overshadowing the Tennesseans, Alabamans, North Carolinians, and Mississippians who formed the other two-thirds of the attack.
I was surprised to learn that we have a hard time figuring out how many men were actually involved in Pickett’s Charge (this being a basic narrative history, I am sticking with the common name for it despite the inaccuracy); I attribute this to the confusion involved in organizing it. I’ve heard as low as 12,500 men and as high as 15,000. I’m going with 14,000 men because it’s a nice even number that is approximately midway between the upper and lower limit, so don’t mistake my choice as being accurate or even evidence-based per se. Regardless, the agreed upon number of Union defenders is 6,500. The Confederates would outnumber the Union by about 2-1 or greater at the point of contact.
These days, a lot of people show up at the battlefield and stare out from Cemetery Ridge at Spangler Woods where Pettigrew would have emerged from (or stand in Spangler’s Woods and stare out at Cemetery Ridge, same difference) and wonder what the hell was going through Lee’s head. The ground there is now flat and devoid of cover, the exact kind of terrain that time and time again had proven to be a death sentence for infantry assaults. The answer is that the ground changed between 1863 and today. Just before World War One ended in 1918, the field over which Pickett charged was artificially flattened for tank training. Before that, it was the kind of rolling terrain that Buford’s skirmishers had exploited on day one- an observer from a distance would see the troops disappear and reappear as they went over and down each gentle slope. The 14,000 attackers would have some cover as they advanced- not perfect terrain to keep immune from artillery and bullets, but not explicit suicide either.
————————————————————————
EARLY AFTERNOON
By 1 PM, Alexander had his guns set up the way he liked them. What followed at his command was the single largest coordinated artillery mission that the Western Hemisphere had ever seen.
In the south, cannons at the Peach Orchard suppressed the Union firing point on Little Round Top. All along Seminary Ridge from whence the charge would spring, cannons lined up practically wheel to wheel for a mile, aimed at wrecking Cemetery Ridge.
Longstreet was in what you might call a high stress kind of mood. He was having second, third, fourth, and fifth thoughts about attacking, but orders were orders and he was in charge of this damned charge. As the guns began their bombardment, Longstreet did something that frankly goes beyond the pale of any command decision I’ve ever heard of. The film Gettysburg and the novel it’s based on cast Longstreet in a very sympathetic light, as a kind of deliberate pushback against the reductive myth that Longstreet was personally responsible for losing the battle and by extension the war, leaving Lee off the hook to stay firmly in the saintly canon of the Lost Cause. But here, Longstreet indisputably abdicates any pretense of the responsibility of command.
He fired an order off to Colonel Alexander, telling him:
If the artillery fire does not have the effect to drive off the enemy, or greatly demoralize him, so as to make our effort pretty certain, I would prefer that you should not advise General Pickett to make the charge. I shall . . . expect you to let General Pickett know when the moment offers.
Allow me to reiterate in case you were reading this on autopilot. Longstreet, the man in charge of the whole offensive, was telling a lowly artillery colonel that the decision when and if to attack was on him and no one else.
Alexander was a subject matter expert on artillery and not infantry for a reason. This order hit him from out of left field. He wrote back for clarification, and the professional in him mentioned that since the plan is to use every single artillery shell they can spare, if there is any alternative plan to charging Cemetery Hill at the end of the bombardment then they’d better tell him before he runs out of ammo.
And Longstreet reiterated his first order. He told Alexander to advise General Pickett whether or not to attack. And with that on his shoulders, Alexander gave the order to open fire.
All told, somewhere between 150 and 170 guns opened up at the same moment. The 75 Union cannons they had on hand briefly engaged in counter-battery fire, before being ordered to go quiet and save ammunition for the infantry assault to come. For about an hour, the Union troops just had to sit still and take what the Rebel had to give them.
What Lee was doing was classic Napoleonic tactics. Massing artillery against the weakest point on the enemy line was literally by the book soldiering. The problem, as was noted here before, was that technology had changed. Napoleonic could bring his cannon close to the frontline with the reasonable expectation that they wouldn’t be shot, since smoothbore muskets are basically harmless from 200 yards away. But that was no longer the case. The long stand off distance that the enemy rifles dictated meant that the cannonfire was proportionally less accurate and devastating. The smoke covering the field concealed the truth from the Confederates- their artillery fire was off. Most of the shells flew high overhead and exploded behind Cemetery Ridge. Some shells hit the target area- Union men did die screaming by the score. But the positions on Cemetery Hill were only lightly damaged, and the units manning them were intact and cohesive. Most of the damage done was to the rear echelon types- surgeons, supply wagoneers, staff officers, that kind of thing. Such men were massacred as the shells aimed at men a quarter mile away arced over and found marks elsewhere. Meade, of course, was on hand, showing a brave face and cracking some jokes about a similar moment in the Mexican-American War 15 years back.
Throughout the hour, as his line endured the steel hailstorm, Meade’s engineer mind was working. He’d already suspected that Lee was about to hit his center- he’d predicted as much the night before- and now the shot placements confirmed it. He was already ordering troops into position, getting ready to reinforce the line on Cemetery Ridge if needed. He hedged his bets, putting them in a position to relieve Cemetery Hill as well, just in case. Little Round Top became somewhat less defended as men marched out, using the high ground to mask their redeployment.
Irresponsible and insubordinate though Longstreet was at that moment, he was right. Lee’s improvised plan had already failed, though it hadn’t happened yet. Pickett’s Charge wasn’t going to slam into a fragmented and demoralized Union line. It was heading into a mile long, mile wide kill zone backed up by a defence in depth.
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Pickett’s Charge
Confederates were getting mangled before the charge even started. Union artillery fire reached out and touched out them in Spangler’s Woods, rolling solid iron shot and explosive shells into their huddled ranks.
Longstreet rode the line, exposing himself to the artillery fire to set an example of courage. The men didn’t need such an example- or rather, they’ve seen such examples in a dozen battles over the last two years and have already learned valor as a second language- but there’s something to be said for showing the groundpounders that their boss is in the wrong end of the shooting gallery the same way that they are.
Just before 2 p.m., Alexander decided if it’s gonna happen, it’d have to be now. He needed at least a small reserve of shells to function after the battle and he’s running out fast. He dashed off a note to Pickett telling him to step off. In keeping with the standard of Confederate comms thus far, Pickett then took Alexander’s note to Longstreet in person for confirmation, because nobody had told him that Longstreet was trying to dodge the responsibility of command.
Longstreet was desperate for an out, and in one crazed leap of illogic he thought he found one. Alexander was low on shells, with only a tiny reserve of ammunition left over for self-defense! Longstreet issued orders to halt in place and delay some more, so that they could replenish their ammo chests from their strategic reserves.
I really feel for Alexander, man. I've had bosses like that too. Alexander had to break the news to Longstreet that there was no strategic reserve, he already told him, they were shooting every round they got. Longstreet was shocked- apparently nobody on Lee's staff had been paying attention to how fast they'd been burning through their artillery rounds. (Meade's staff paid attention to such banal details- that's why they now had tons of ammunition standing by their guns on Cemetery Ridge, patiently waiting for something valuable to shoot at). Even then, Longstreet couldn’t bring himself to actually say the words to order the attack. He just nodded, mute and numb.
At 2 p.m., the attack started. 14,000 men rose up and walked forward, a giant line of infantry one mile across. In lieu of specific instructions about where they were going and how to get there, the order was to aim for a copse of trees on the objective- an easy visual marker that was easy to remember. As long as you kept the trees in sight and kept moving forward, you were right.
(Miles and miles away, J.E.B. Stuart’s flanking maneuver was being countered by an equal force of Union cavalry. Their clash had one of the few cavalry-on-cavalry battles of the Civil War; fun fact, this was one of the fights that put Custer’s career on the map, until getting killed off by the Cheyenne at Little Big Horn 13 years later. The battle was intense, but a draw; Stuart couldn’t break through. Even if Pickett’s Charge worked, there’d have been no way to follow up and finish Meade off for good. Lee’s plan was well and truly fucked.)
Things immediately stopped being clean and neat, as per the usual. The center of Pickett’s Charge sprang up and walked before the flanks did, but the brigades on the south and the north of them set off late, leading to a kind of droopy effect where the center bulged out unsupported.
When the Union soldiers manning Cemetery Ridge saw the Confederate advance begin, they began to chant “Fredericksburg! Fredericksburg! Fredericksburg!” Just a little “fuck you” from one set of veterans to another; at Fredericksburg eight months before, Union General Burnside had ordered several such suicidal attacks on prepared defenses which the Confederates had gleefully blasted into chunky salsa.
70 odd guns opened up on them all. To give a sense of the skill involved, the artilleryman in charge of the Union guns, Colonel Hunt, had written the book on artillery- literally, because his work Instructions for Field Artillery was the go-to manual for the US Army- and at West Point had personally taught most of the Confederate artillery officers across the way everything they knew about the big guns. One must not mistake this as just plopping down the cannons and pointing them in the right direction. Hunt was an artist with his weapon systems, and the pattern of explosions that snaked into the advancing infantry had been painstakingly designed by a master craftsman.
At the distance of a mile, it was iron shot and shell that carved bloody little holes into the line. The Confederates took the beating, closed ranks, and pushed on. On the south, the cannons on Little Round Top delivered particularly hideous effects from the flank, driving their line into disorder; some brigades cut in front of other brigades, and what should have been a line became a muddled column. On the north, a brigade under General Brockenbrough bumped into a small detachment of 160 Union men who were jutting out north of the road. The Union men fired a small but devastating volley that raked them from the side and broke their nerves. Brockenbrough’s men ran- the first to break, but not the last.
Similar small detachments of skirmishers dotted No Man’s Land between the armies. Between their vicious little ambushes and the massive shock of massed artillery, Pickett’s Charge slowed down. Slowing down just left them in the kill zone for that much longer.
When Pickett’s Charge reached the Emmitsburg Road, they were further delayed by the stiff fencing that lined it. As they clambered over it, Union infantry opened fire at long range. The casualties skyrocketed as the Confederate line absorbed the fire. If you want to know what it was like under fire, picture the start of a rainstorm. The water droplets go taptaptap tap taptaptap taptaptaptaptap taptaptaptaptap taptap taptaptaptaptaptap taptaptaptaptaptaptaptaptap... that's how the survivors described the musketry that pelted the fence they were trying to climb over. One small contingent of Davis’ brigade (you recall how roughly they were manhandled on July the 1st) accidentally got ahead of everybody else and found itself standing right in front of the Union line all alone. The guys closest to the Union defenses surrendered as one; the rest got shot up bad and ran for their lives.
Pickett’s Charge was pure chaos by then- their mile wide front that had surged forth from Spangler’s Wood had shrunk down to about a half mile, partly from taking casualties, partly from brigades running away after the shock of massed fire, and partly from bridges shifting north away from flanking fire from their right side.
From the fence line on the Emmitsburg to the stone wall that protected the Union defense was about two hundred yards. This is a long shot for a rifle, especially under pressure- that’s the whole point to volley fire, so that everybody shooting at once will create a sort of probability cloud of danger even at long range. Some Confederates, desperate to hit back after enduring hell, shot anyway. Their fire was ineffective. It is a very, very short shot for an artillery piece, even under pressure. A battery of cannons placed just behind the Union line switched to canister and blasted massive bloody holes in the bunched up Confederates.
A lot of Confederates huddled up behind the fencing and stayed put. It is marginally safer than moving two feet forward past the wooden railings, and the spirit had been knocked out of them by the mile long charge and the mile long shooting gallery they’d been subjected to. The left side of the attack had been stopped dead and turned back; the right side pushed on, disregarding any thought but closing distance. 1,500 men blitzed those last 200 yards to the stone wall
Scores of them died from rifle fire as the cannons reloaded.
The surviving Confederates, running on pure adrenaline, reached the stone wall at a place called the Bloody Angle. The Union line was disjointed, with the Northern section slightly back from the southern section. The Angle was the little joint that connected the two walls; it was also right by the copse of trees that everybody was racing towards.
A fierce firefight broke out once the Confederates reached the wall. Most of them stayed behind the wall; like their buddies to the west still behind the fence on the Emmitsburg pike, they’d finally found a few square feet that was sorta kinda safe, and every instinct they had in their brains screamed at them to stay there. The Union troops were outnumbered at the point of impact, and backed off in good order.
Reserve regiments were already marching up to plug the gap that didn’t exist yet. Units north and south of the Bloody Angle shifted in place to fire at the beachhead. Behind the Confederates on the Angle, there was a small ocean of blood on the ground and a mile long procession of silent, mangled dead and writhing, screaming wounded... but no follow on reinforcements to help exploit the breakthrough.
General Armistead, the only Confederate General there still on his feet, still believed in all that chivalrous Walter Scott romantic nonsense, still thought that raw valor and heart could somehow beat a superior enemy. He stuck his hat on his sword as a makeshift battle flag and rallied his men to leave the safety of the Bloody Angle and close distance.
Just as the pitifully few Confederates got on the east side of the wall, the cannons shot canister again and puked metal death all over them. After shooting, the artillerymen ran back to safety before the rebels could stagger up to them.
Hundreds of men surged forward by inertia; hundreds out of the 14,000 that they’d started with. They drove off the understrength Union regiments with the bayonet and capture those hated big guns, turning them around to use against the inevitable counterattack. This failed; there was no more ammo left for the guns. Colonel Hunt had measured out the number of rounds needed for the job at hand with the utmost precision.
The counterattack was messy and bloody for everybody involved, for the brawl saw everything available used as a weapon- bullets, bayonets, rifle butts, pistols, knives, rocks, boot heels, bare hands. But the Confederates all just dissolved after a short while. Nobody ordered a retreat; nobody was alive and of sufficient rank to order a retreat. Thousands just plopped down where they stood and waited for Union men to come out and collect them. They were too numb and exhausted to walk anymore. Others streamed back to safety in ones and twos.
For every Confederate who died, four more were maimed and crippled. For every wounded man, another was taken prisoner. It was an unmitigated disaster for the Confederate cause, and correspondingly it was a triumph of humanity as the stalwart defenders of the slave plantations died in droves. Remember, like I said, we’re rooting for the Union.
The battle wasn’t over, not really. Not was the campaign. But it certainly was decided.
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RIGHT SO
Interestingly, at first it was kind of ambiguous who won.
Meade got fired from the job after Lee got the Army of Northern Virginia home intact. Lincoln was seething that Meade hadn’t shown some aggression and had failed to destroy Lee’s army as he had been ordered. Meade, however, didn’t have much of an army at that point, just a diverse collection of units that had suffered 50% casualties and were in no condition to do anything. Moreover, there had been no way to bring the retreating Lee to battle without taking a lot of risks that might see all the good done at Gettysburg undone. Still though. Meade was out, and Grant, riding high after his conquest of Vicksburg, was in. Lee initially claimed victory in the Richmond papers, and it was hard to gainsay him at first. He had indisputably invaded north and thrashed the living shit out of the Army of the Potomac so bad that they could not invade again in 1863, which was indeed partly the point of the strategy.
But soon the facts of life made themselves clear. Lee had holes in his ranks that simply could not be filled anymore. Southerners didn’t want to die in a losing war, and coercing in them into the ranks through State violence only gave him shitty recruits who would desert the second they were put on guard duty. In contrast, tens of thousands of men poured into training depots across the nation, all armed and clothed and fed by the grandest industrial base in the world. Thousands of experienced veterans re-upped their contracts in Gettysberg’s wake to become these new recruits’ NCOs and commanding officers. Lee has gone north to break the will of the Union to continue the fight. Gettysburg had, if anything, demoralized the Confederacy and reinvigorated the Union instead. I do not believe that Gettysburg started this trend, but I do think it sped it up significantly. Patterns that might have taken a year to come to fruition instead took months.
Gettysburg, in my opinion, is significant not because of any great gains or losses on the material level, but because of its effects on the minds of voters and soldiers and politicians in the North and the South. To crib C. S. Lewis really quick, what matters was not whether a given action would take a specific hill, or seize a certain road; what matters is whether a given action pushes people to either dig their heels in and seek victory at any personal cost, or whether it pushes them to back down and seek a safer compromise. Gettysburg pushed all of the American people in the directions they were already heading down, that’s all. Any conclusion beyond that is on shaky ground, I feel.
Having said that, I shall now irrationally contradict myself; Gettysburg can also act as a Rorschach test with symbols and images and stories in lieu of the ink blots. Like I said, it’s a place of religious significance to me to an extent far beyond appreciation for its historic value.
I just don’t think it’s possible for that many people to die in such a short period of time, in so compact an area, and with such blunt contempt for the foreseen probability of violent death, and not leave an indelible and ineffable mark on the land itself. Like, if humanity went extinct and Earth got colonized by Betelgeusians a hundred years after, I am certain that the aliens would somehow feel a chill in their exoskeletons when they walk over the soft leaves and through the bare trees of Herbst Wood, or tromp around the south side of Little Round Top, or poke about on the steep slope of Culp's Hill, or splash across the Plum River in the Valley of Death.
I’m not saying I’m right, of course. But I am saying how I feel.
submitted by mcjunker to TheMotte [link] [comments]

AMA: 20 Things I Wish I Knew Before Going to an Elite College

Hey there! I graduated from a mid-ranked Ivy a few years ago. Below is a list of 20 things I wish I knew before going to an elite college. This advice applies to anyone attending an elite college or university (eg. Michigan, Colby, WashU, Georgetown, MIT, Claremont McKenna, Amherst, Brown, ect.) next year.
First, a little bit about myself. I had a decent college experience that was amazing in many ways and less good in others. After graduation, I moved to DC and worked in politics for a couple years. This fall, I applied to law school, and I’ve been accepted to a number of good programs. I’m currently deciding among UChicago, Columbia, and NYU.
I'm also happy to answer questions as well, so feel free to ask away (after glancing through the questions I've already answered). Without further ado, here is the list!
  1. It doesn’t matter which elite college or university you go to.
A lot of people agonize over the fact that they didn’t get into Harvard and have to settle for Cornell, or that they didn’t get into MIT and have to go to Carnegie Mellon. Honestly, the truth is that where you go to school doesn’t matter so long as you go to an elite college or university. Today, the great news is that there are so many elite colleges and universities that provide the same quality education and similar professional and graduate school opportunities (see list of colleges and universities above).
For example, if one person goes to Colgate, another person goes to Harvard, and both people major in economics and apply to PhD programs in economics after they graduate, they’ll both have similar odds at getting into elite PhD programs assuming their GPAs, research experience, and faculty recommendations are similar. If the Colgate guy has better grades, better research experience, and better faculty recommendations, he’ll get accepted to a better economics PhD program than the Harvard guy.
The same is true for other grad schools (eg. law, medicine, business, ect.) and jobs (eg. Facebook, Goldman Sachs, McKinsey). So long as you go to an elite college or university, you’ll have largely the same opportunities as someone else who went to a slightly higher ranked elite college or university.
Additionally, people (who matter, such as employers and grad schools) largely view elite college grads from all elite schools as equally smart regardless of the elite school they attended. For example, when I meet someone from Princeton and someone from UVA, I’m not automatically more impressed with the Princeton guy, and I don’t automatically think the Princeton guy is smarter than the UVA guy. Instead, there’s more of an elite college/non-elite college dichotomy in my mind and in the minds of most elite college alumni and most employers. In other words, if I meet someone who went to WVU and someone who went to UVA, Princeton, Pomona, or Emory, I automatically DO think the non-elite college WVU guy is dumber than the elite college guy from any elite school (sorry, but it’s the truth!). However, I don’t really distinguish among the elite college guys based on the schools they attended. Instead, I distinguish them based on their intellect, personality, and professional success.
  1. All of the students at one highly ranked elite school aren’t necessarily smarter than all of the students at another slightly lower ranked elite school.
Yup, this is definitely true. Just because your high school classmate’s going to Harvard and you’re going to Cornell doesn’t mean that one year from now, two years from now, three years from now, or four years from now your high school classmate will be “smarter” than you. During college everyone grows intellectually and some grow more than others regardless of which school they attend. This means that you could graduate from Cornell with a 3.8 GPA while your high school buddy at Harvard might not adapt too well to college and might only pull a 3.4. Guess who’s “smarter” and has better professional and grad school opportunities when you graduate college? You, the Cornell guy! The same is true even if you attended Colby or UVA while your high school classmate went to Harvard.
  1. Higher ranked elite colleges aren’t necessarily more difficult academically than lower ranked elite colleges.
Yup, this one’s also true. Just because Harvard’s acceptance rate is twice as low as Amherst’s acceptance rate doesn’t make Harvard students twice as smart as Amherst students or Harvard classes twice as hard as Amherst classes. Honestly, the students at both schools are likely equally smart and the classes are probably about the same in terms of academic rigor.
That being said, there are some schools that are known for grade deflation, such as Columbia, UChicago, and Princeton. These schools are likely more academically rigorous than places like Dartmouth or Harvard, but their academic rigor stems less from their ranking and selectivity and more from their administrative policies and academic traditions that reinforce grade deflation.
  1. Even if you didn’t get admitted to an elite college or university, your life is not over.
Even if you didn’t do so well in high school grade-wise or got unlucky in college admissions, don’t panic. Your life is not over. You can still get into a top-notch grad school and/or get a top notch job and have phenomenal opportunities for the rest of your life.
I know many people who have done this. One of my professors at my Ivy league school who has a Wikipedia page (yup, he’s that famous in his field!) went to a bad California public college for undergrad and ended up getting a PhD from and a professorship at an Ivy League school. Similarly, one kid from my high school did really poorly academically in high school, got his s*** together at a tiny, no-name liberal arts college, and now attends Stanford Law School. Heck, I didn’t even get admitted to Stanford Law when I applied this fall while he did! It just comes to show that you can’t rest on your laurels if you do get into an Ivy League undergrad school, and you can’t be down on yourself if you don’t.
Suffice to say that if you’re dying to get that elite college or Ivy League degree, you’ll have plenty of opportunities to do so after undergrad. Most Ivies have great grad schools that you can attend later on in life. Or, to really spice things up, go abroad to Oxford, Cambridge, or LSE and get that one year British master degree immediately following college graduation! Tons of Americans do this.
  1. If you have multiple acceptances from elite colleges, pick the elite college where you feel you would fit in best.
Deposit day is right around the corner for most schools, and if you’re still agonizing over which elite college to choose, here’s a simple pro tip: pick the elite college where you’ll be happiest. For example, if you were admitted to Cornell and Georgetown and you believe that you would be happier at Georgetown compared to Cornell but are worried that “Georgetown isn’t an Ivy!”, go to Georgetown. Both schools are close enough in prestige that it doesn’t really matter which one you choose. Because you believe you’ll fit in better at Georgetown, you’ll be happier there, make more friends there, and get better grades there, which will create more future opportunities for you than you would have gotten had you chased the Ivy League label and gone to Cornell instead.
I say this from personal experience. While I enjoyed my college in many ways and would still recommend it to many potential students, I believe that I would have been happier at Williams or Amherst, and I would have gotten the same exact opportunities at both schools that I got at my school.
That being said, if you are admitted to a non-elite school (eg. OSU, UF, Ole Miss, ect.) and an elite school, if finances/student loans aren’t an issue, definitely choose the elite school over the non-elite school. I have nothing against non-elite schools, but the truth is that you will not get the same opportunities at these schools that you will at elite colleges. For this reason, if finances aren’t an issue, always pick the elite school.
  1. If you have multiple acceptances from elite colleges, pick the elite college that aligns best with your future goals.
If you’re still having trouble choosing which elite college to attend, consider which one will most align with your future goals. For example, if you were admitted to Dartmouth and Rice, and you are dead-set on living in Houston for the rest of your life, go to Rice. Why? Because a much larger proportion of your potential college friends from Rice will settle in Houston after college, and you’ll have a much larger network of friends in your city, which will make life more enjoyable and help you advance in whichever career you choose.
If you want to live abroad, make sure you choose a school that has a stronger international brand reputation. For example, if you’re choosing between Williams and Georgetown, and you’re 100% sure that you want to live abroad for a significant portion of your life, you should probably choose Georgetown (unless you absolutely hate it) because far more people abroad will know Georgetown than Williams.
In general, a plurality of graduates from each elite school tend to cluster in one or two cities. For Dartmouth and all the New England Ivies/Little Ivies, it’s Boston and NYC (and SF to a lesser extent). For Penn, it’s Philly and NYC (and SF to a lesser extent). For Princeton and Columbia, it’s NYC (and SF to a lesser extent). For UVA and Georgetown, it’s DC (and NYC to a lesser extent). For Berkeley and Stanford, it’s SF and LA (and NYC to a lesser extent). For Northwestern, UChicago, Notre Dame, and WashU, it’s Chicago (and NYC to a lesser extent). For Duke and Emory, it’s Atlanta (and DC/NYC to a lesser extent).
Does this mean that there are no elite college alums from your elite college in non-feeder cities? No! Of course there are alums in these cities, and these cities will likely have alumni clubs that you can join. However, chances are that the majority of your future friends at whichever elite school you attend will likely follow the crowd to the feeder city(ies) that most alums from your school go to after graduation. Definitely keep this in mind as you choose which college to attend.
Internationally, most larger American elite schools (eg. non liberal arts colleges) will have solid alumni networks and alumni clubs in London and Hong Kong. Other cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Singapore, Paris, Berlin, and Dubai may have alumni, but there might not be a large, active alumni club, so if you want to live in these locations, it’s definitely a good idea to choose a university with more name recognition internationally (eg. Berkeley over Amherst, unless you hate Berkeley) that will make you recognizable to people you may meet and befriend while living in one of these cities.
  1. Attending an elite college or university for undergrad does NOT guarantee that you’ll be admitted to an elite college or university for grad school.
Attending an elite school for undergrad does not give you a free pass in grad school admissions. Sure, it makes grad school admissions easier compared to the guy applying to grad school from University of Detroit or Frostburg State, but you still have to earn your spot in grad school, and you can’t just coast based on the prestige of your elite undergrad school.
For example, since all med schools are really selective (eg. <10% acceptance rate), most of my classmates from my Ivy in medical school attend places like Iowa, Rutgers, and Texas Tech. Did a couple get admitted to Harvard and Columbia? Sure, but only one or two. While these lesser ranked schools aren’t necessarily housed in prestigious universities, all of my classmates at these med schools are guaranteed to have stable, high-paying jobs for life, regardless of which one they attend. That is definitely an enviable position to be in, so they’re certainly doing very well for themselves.
For law school, graduating from an elite undergrad school definitely gives you a bit of a bump, but not a massive one. For example, if the median college GPA of admitted students at a law school that you’re applying to is a 3.9, then you’ll be competitive with a 3.8 or a 3.85 instead of a 3.9 by virtue of the fact that you went to an elite school. Suffice to say that it’s a bit of a bump, but not a massive one. However, by attending an elite school, you’ve likely gotten a lot of opportunities to polish the soft side of your application (eg. extracurriculars, recommendations, ect.) due to the sheer amount of resources available at elite schools. This soft part of your application will stand out more compared to applicants who didn’t attend elite schools. In general, I’d say more than three quarters of my classmates who applied to law school from my Ivy got accepted to T14 law schools. However, nearly one quarter didn’t, and several opted out of the application process altogether because they knew that they wouldn’t get into a T14 school.
Other grad programs elite college graduates regularly attend include business school, public policy/international affairs school, and PhDs. While attending elite colleges raises your chances slightly for admission to these elite grad schools, it does not guarantee that you’ll be admitted to Harvard Business School, Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School (public policy/international affairs), or Stanford’s PhD in Computer Science. Heck, attending an elite undergrad doesn’t 100% guarantee that you’ll get admitted to UT Austin’s MBA program or University of Washington’s Computer Science masters program.
This means that you can’t rest on your laurels. You still have to work hard and earn your spot at an elite grad school.
  1. If you’re burnt out from high school, take a gap year.
I really wish I had taken a gap year after high school. I went to a very competitive high school where lots of kids go to elite colleges and universities, and I was really burnt out when I showed up at college. While I did well academically my freshman year, I really believe that I would have benefitted from some time off.
For this reason, I’d highly recommend that you take a gap year if you’re burnt out. However, just because you’re taking a gap year doesn’t mean that you should be unproductive and do nothing. Instead, take some online courses, do a remote internship, or learn a foreign language. You won’t have many more opportunities in your life when you have several months without any commitments, so take advantage of that time to be with family and learn a new skill or hobby.
  1. If you want to learn a new foreign language, start taking classes in that foreign language the moment you arrive at your elite college.
If you always had a burning desire to learn Russian, Mandarin, Italian, Japanese, or any other language for that matter, but your high school didn’t offer classes in that language, guess what? Your elite college likely does and now is by far the best and easiest time in your life to learn that language. You will never again in your life have four years when you can consistently and easily devote yourself to learning a new foreign language. If you start a new language during your first semester freshman year and take a course in that language every single semester during your entire time in college (including a semester abroad with language immersion), I guarantee that you’ll reach at least intermediate proficiency in that foreign language by the time you graduate, even if that language is Russian or Mandarin.
  1. Elite colleges and universities only provide you with a limited set of (really good) careers options.
Oh boy, this is definitely a piece of information I wish I knew before attending my school. This information might be a bit of a downer for some, but attending an elite college or university will not open doors to every single career you’ve dreamed of. In general, elite universities feed people into five or six different careers through their career and grad school advising offices.
First, they’ll provide you opportunities to work on Wall Street (or other financial centers, such as Houston, San Francisco, Chicago, and Atlanta, depending on where your school is located) in investment banking. Investment bankers, or IBankers for short, usually work for large banks that were bailed out during the Great Recession, such as JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs. IBankers help companies sell stock and bonds and revalue themselves after merging with other companies or selling off portions of their own company. That one sentence explanation is a vast oversimplification of IBanking, so keep that in mind. On a daily basis, IBankers create excel spreadsheets and powerpoint slides. They work crazy hours (eg. 60-70 hours per week, plus work on the weekends), but they also get paid a lot of money right out of college (eg. $100,000+ first year). If this appeals to you, check out Wall Street Oasis (WSO), which has by far the most resources and information for those who want to work on Wall Street. If this doesn’t sound appealing to you, there are a few other options to consider.
Elite universities also provide their students and graduates with jobs in management consulting. Management consultants work in teams of five to ten people and advise senior management (eg. CEOs, executive VPs, COOs, MDs, ect.) at large companies on the strategy and operations of their companies. Each week, consultants fly out to their client from the city they (the consultants) live in (eg. NYC, Boston, San Francisco, ect.). Usually, the client is located in pretty uneventful places like Spartanburg, South Carolina, so don’t get your hopes up about jetting over to Dubai or Miami and sipping martinis for the week. That’s not going to happen. Like IBankers, management consultants are glorified excel and powerpoint monkeys. Their hours are better than IBankers, and they usually do not have much weekend work. In order to land a consulting gig at a top firm (eg. McKinsey, Bain, and BCG, which are the Harvard, Yale, and Princeton of consulting), you’ll need to earn at least a 3.8 GPA or you’ll need to major in a hard STEM subject and pull above a 3.5 GPA. Otherwise, they probably won’t interview you even though you go to Williams, Harvard, or some other elite school. Still, you could land a consulting offer with a lower GPA at a less prestigious firm or a boutique firm, and you’ll have a pretty similar experience. In other words, your elite college will provide you opportunities in management consulting so long as your college GPA isn’t terrible. If you want to learn more about management consulting, check out Management Consulted and WSO’s forum on management consulting.
Elite schools also open up doors in the tech world. If you’re a whiz at computer science, you’ll have a strong shot at landing a software engineering job at Google, Facebook, Amazon, or another large tech company, provided that you can pass the coding interview. If you aren’t good enough to pass the coding interview at these places, rest assured as there are still plenty of other software job opportunities to choose from at less well known companies and startups, so you’ll graduate with a job making at least $70,000 and probably upwards of $100,000 if you play your cards right. Prestigious tech companies (eg. Apple) also have non-software jobs that your career services office at your elite school may enable you to recruit for. These positions are notoriously difficult to land because the barriers to entry are low (you don’t need technical skills), but you’ll at least have a better shot than most people at them because you attend an elite school.
Elite schools also help you win fellowships, such as Fulbrights and Teach for America. Your elite school likely has a fellowship office or a person in your career services office devoted to fellowships who can advise you. This advisor is typically not available at less prestigious institutions.
Elite schools also funnel students into professional graduate schools, especially law school and medical school. I’m not going to discuss either of these options here because I’ve already discussed both at length in another question above.
On the other hand, here is what elite schools do NOT provide career-wise. Elite schools do NOT provide special opportunities in politics on Capitol Hill or at the UN. They do NOT have a bunch of job postings in journalism at the NY Times or the Washington Post. They do NOT open tons of doors in entertainment and Hollywood. They do NOT offer tons of professional opportunities for musicians and artists. Sorry to burst your bubble, but attending Harvard or any other elite school isn’t going to get you a job at the UN, NY Times, Hollywood, or the Metropolitan Museum of Art. Career services won’t do jack for you if those are your career goals (except maybe help you land an unpaid internship). Instead, you’ll have to hustle on your own and network a ton to land those opportunities. It’s better for you to receive this tough love now than later on, even if it’s a bit of a downer to hear this.
Instead, maybe you always dreamed of being an English or History professor? Sorry to break it to you, but even if you’re talented enough to be a humanities professor (which you probably are) and even if you get into Harvard for your humanities PhD, the job market is so bad for humanities professors that you probably won’t get a job as a professor no matter how hard you try. The job market is marginally better for aspiring hard science and social science professors, but it’s still tough. If you really want to be a professor, go get a PhD in business after undergrad. While you probably won’t land a professorship at Harvard, there are tons of business professorships available at other schools, and you’ll almost certainly land one if you work hard. Again, sorry for the downer, but it’s better to be blunt and brutally honest than to lie to you and not tell you the truth.
  1. Be social and join extracurriculars once you arrive at your elite college or university, but don’t overextend yourself.
If you were shy and just studied a lot in high school, make sure you break out of your shell and be social once you arrive by joining and participating in a couple (more than one, but not 50+) extracurriculars and clubs on a very regular basis. If you feel social anxiety because you’re in a brand new place where half the kids were valedictorians or salutatorians at their high schools, don’t sweat it because your classmates are all feeling the same anxiety you’re feeling. My best advice to you is fake it ‘til you make it. Make sure to stand up straight, look your fellow classmates in the eyes, and smile. If you do those three things, you’ll be fine.
  1. Be aware of social hierarchies on campus and within your extracurriculars and clubs, but don’t be a social climber who spends their entire college life climbing these social hierarchies to the exclusion of everything else.
Once you arrive on campus, make sure you acquaint yourself with social hierarchies on campus and within your extracurriculars and clubs. For example, which clubs tend to be more popular? Which clubs are less mainstream (and frowned upon)? Ask yourself how people will perceive you if you join one club or another. Do some clubs feed into other clubs (eg. all members of the football team join one specific fraternity)? Who are the most influential people in the clubs you joined? How about the least influential?
At the same time, don’t be a shallow social climber who only cares about social status. People who only social climb end up miserable because they don’t form genuine friendships based on shared interests and values. Plus, social climbers don’t realize that at the end of four years once everyone graduates, the social hierarchy that existed on campus no longer matters at all as an alumnus or alumna of your elite college. Literally no one cares what sports team or fraternity or sorority you were in after you graduate. It sounds so “third grade” to talk about those things as alumni.
Nevertheless, make sure that you do not find yourself at the bottom of the social hierarchy while you’re in school (except initially WITHIN your extracurricular clubs where you’ll de facto have to start at the bottom as a new student and member in the club). You will definitely pay a big price socially while you’re in school if you’re at the bottom socially, and you will definitely be less happy. The good news is that it’s very easy to not be at the bottom. Just have your social antenna up, be socially aware, and don’t join unpopular clubs that have a strong social stigma on campus.
  1. Be strategic about the classes you take and the professors you choose.
In order to earn a high GPA, make sure you choose your classes and professors carefully. Some classes and professors are notorious for their harsh grading while others are much easier, and you should do everything you can to avoid the harder classes and professors. If you want to figure out which classes and professors are difficult, just ask an upperclassman majoring in a particular subject which ones they would avoid in their specific major.
Also, I’d highly recommend asking upperclassmen which classes and professors are the best. During fall semester, make it a point to ask five different upperclassmen which classes/professors were their favorite. Keep a list of these classes and professors and consider taking them if they align with your interests or distribution requirements.
  1. Take classes in your strongest subject areas during your first semester of freshman year.
Attending an elite college is a big bump up in terms of academic rigor compared to high school. If you take humanities and social science classes, you will have more reading than you’ve ever had before in an academic environment, and if you take science and math classes, you will have harder problem sets and exams than you’ve ever experienced in high school. As a first year student, you will likely be in class with some upperclassmen who have one, two, and three years of elite college academic experience under their belts. This means that they will likely be more skilled academically than the average freshman, and it will be harder, but certainly not impossible, for first year students like you to perform as well as they, especially in subject areas you know little about.
For this reason, I would highly recommend that you take classes in subject areas that you are really strong in during the first semester of your first year. If you were a US History buff in high school, then take an American history class. If you crushed it in AP French last year, then take French. If you’ve read tons of American literature, then take an American literature class. If you love stats, take a stats class.
  1. Don’t be a “know it all” or a “try hard” in class.
Don’t be the “know it all” who always raises their hand to answer every question in class. Don’t be the “try hard” who tries to demonstrate that they're smarter than everyone else. People who behave this way are off-putting and have toxic personal brands and bad reputations on all elite college campuses. Don’t be one of those guys.
On the other hand, do make an insightful comment (or two, or three, depending on the class) every class if you’re in a discussion-oriented class (then shut up). Do go to office hours and forge strong relationships with your professors. Do participate in study groups with other students. Do write good essays and perform well on midterms and final exams. Do your best academically and earn good grades.
  1. Invest time in dating.
Your four years at an elite college will be by far the easiest time to date during your entire life. You will be surrounded by hundreds to thousands of other smart, horny kids who are away from home for the first time and are keen to try new things. If you’re showing up to college as a virgin, guess what? So is the majority of your class, so you’re in good company, and there’s nothing to be embarrassed about.
If you’re confused or unclear about how to date, here are a couple simple tips that may be helpful whether you’re a guy or a girl. If you fancy someone in one of your classes or clubs, make sure you build a little rapport with them by engaging in small talk a couple times so they know who you are (which you’ve probably/hopefully done before/after class or during club activities). Remember to stand up straight, smile (not in a cheesy, contrived way), and look them in the eyes when you talk to them (and everyone else for that matter). Then, ask them casually to grab lunch (or coffee if students at your elite college grab coffee regularly) by saying something like, “Hey, let’s grab lunch some time!” Remember, in romance, especially if you’re a guy, never “ask” to do something; instead, suggest doing something by saying “Let’s do this” or “Let’s do that.”
If they say no, they’re probably not interested in you romantically even if they think you’re a good person, so don’t take it personally and instead move on to another person. Luckily, there are hundreds to thousands of other people that you can date at your elite school, so don’t worry. However, don’t ask out several people in one club or one class during the span of a week or two. You’ll come across as creepy if you do this.
If they say yes to lunch or coffee, you’ll probably exchange phone numbers with them and set up a time for lunch/coffee. You might even go to lunch together right then and there. After you grab lunch/coffee with them once or twice, study buddy with them if they’re in your class or collaborate together on a project for your club. Be somewhat subtle about your intentions at this point, but don’t be subtle for too long, which could put you in the friendzone.
Then, if things are going smoothly, and you sense that they’re also interested in you romantically (eg. they sit really closely to you, text you all the time about non-school related stuff, talk about sex/romance with you, hug you, and/or physically touch you in sexual or non-sexual places) study buddy or work together with them in a common area of your dorm once and/or invite them to a party. Then, if that goes well, invite them to work together in your room or bring them back to your room, and the two of you will probably end up making out and/or hooking up. Always make sure you have consent during this last step. From there, you can convert this encounter into a relationship and have a boyfriend or girlfriend if you would like.
Investing time in dating now while you’re at an elite college when it’s easy and accessible will make you more effective at dating later in life after college when you interact with many fewer people and dating is not as easy.
  1. Elite colleges don’t teach you how to network, but learning how to network is incredibly important.
Networking is an incredibly important skill that you won’t learn in your classes at an elite college. In order to excel personally, professionally, and socially as a student and graduate of an elite college, it’s essential that you take the time to learn how to network efficiently and effectively.
If you’re unsure where to start, here are a few simple tips that will help you become an effective networker. First, before you contact anyone, make a list of a few (two to four, not 10+) professional fields that you would like to work in. These might be finance, law, medicine, politics, or tech to name a few. Then, make a list of everyone you and your family know who either (a) lives in the city or location where you want to work and has a solid professional career in any field or (b) works in the field(s) you want to work in but lives in any location.
Once you have this list, contact all of these people (usually by email), tell them that you’re looking for career advice and ask them if they’d be willing to speak with you over the phone to give you advice. These phone calls are informally known as “informational interviews.” In most cases, assuming they know your family and you well, they will say yes to the phone call. However, if they don’t respond, send them a polite follow up email a week after you sent your first email, and if they don’t respond again, then don’t sweat it, move on, and speak to your other contacts on the phone.
Along with reaching out to people your family and you already know, you can also send “cold emails” to people you do not know who work in your desired fields. Before “cold emailing” random people, you should first reach out to graduates of your high school, graduates of your elite college, graduates of your elite college’s grad schools, and graduates of other colleges who were in your fraternity or sorority at other schools. Your elite college will have an alumni database that you can access; talk to advisors at your school’s career services office about acquiring this access. LinkedIn is also another great resource for tracking down alumni. Once you’ve exhausted these sources, you can “cold email” or “cold call” anyone in your desired field regardless of the school they attended. Since you may not have any connections to people you “cold email” or “cold call,” you may end up having a very low success rate in acquiring new contacts for your professional network using this method (eg. one out of ten “cold calls” may result in an actual connection). Nevertheless, with sufficient volume, “cold emailing” and “cold calling” can be very effective techniques for networking and are well worth the investment under the right circumstances.
Once you’re on the phone for an informational interview, start by asking your contact about their career (or instead about working in city X if they work in a different career field than your desired field but live in the city that you're targeting). After they’ve spoken for a bit about their career (or city), tell them that you’re interested in careers (and/or internships) in their field (or careers in field Y in their city) and ask them for advice. If they work in one of these fields, you may want to only say that you’re interested in careers in their field and avoid mentioning the other fields altogether, even if you’re also interested in those fields as well. Additionally, they will likely have lots of advice to give you. If they don’t work in one of your desired fields, they probably won’t have as much advice to give you.
Either way, ask them if they know anyone that works in your desired field(s) and your desired work location(s) and ask them if they would be willing to introduce you to these people. If they say yes (which they hopefully will), they’ll put you in touch with one or more of their contacts (usually via email) in your desired field(s) and location(s). Set up phone calls with their contacts, talk to them on the phone, ask for more contacts (especially if they don’t offer you an internship or a job), and repeat this process until you land a position. Send thank you emails to each person after every phone call and connect with each person you speak with on the phone on LinkedIn.
After each semester or every few months, send an email update to all of your contacts detailing anything new, RELEVANT, and/or interesting in your academic, extracurricular, and professional life (eg. classes you took, clubs you recently joined, internships you landed, awards you won, trips you took, ect.). When you send this email update to your contacts, do NOT add all of your contacts to one email message and send out one email message to everyone. Instead, send separate email messages to each contact and copy and paste the same text into each separate email message. While you’re networking, you may realize that some (or many) contacts you’ve made are not worth investing much time in, so you may choose to stop sending them email updates on a regular basis.
That’s networking in a nutshell. If you follow these steps starting freshman year, you’ll be way ahead of the pack compared to your peers.
  1. Get an internship during your freshman summer.
A surprisingly large number of students at elite colleges waste their freshman summers doing nothing because they don’t invest time in procuring a freshman summer internship. While finding a freshman summer internship can be difficult given that many large companies and organizations don’t typically hire freshmen for the summer, landing a freshman summer internship is certainly not impossible, especially since you attend an elite college, which will make hiring managers more likely to give you an offer.
Most freshman summer internships are unpaid. This means that you need to either (a) find an internship near your parents’ or relatives’ homes where you’ll get free housing and meals or (b) procure funding from family or other sources to cover the cost of living while you do your freshman summer internship in another city, such as NYC, DC, or SF. Elite colleges usually give grants to students doing unpaid public service internships, so you may be able to apply for funding from your school. Ask your career services office about funding options available at your school.
If you can't acquire funding for a freshman summer internship and/or you would prefer to live with family and relatives during your freshman summer, then you’ll probably have to network with alumni of your elite college that live in your local area, family friends, your high school teachers, and anyone else you know that lives in your local area to land a freshman summer internship. Use the networking strategies listed above, and you should be able to find something.
There are several local internship options near your home that are feasible to get for each career field. For politics, you can volunteer for a congressional campaign or work in the district office of your local Congressman. For law, you can reach out to local law firms and see if they’ll let you do some legal work during the summer. For tech, you can work for startups in your local area or remotely. For finance, you can contact wealth managers in your area and ask if they’ll let you intern during the summer. For medicine, you can contact doctor’s offices or hospitals and ask to shadow a doctor or nurse for a few weeks. Suffice to say there are lots of internship options for freshman summer, and it’s up to you to seize them.
  1. Find mentors.
While you're at your elite college, make sure you forge relationships with mentors. These mentors can include upperclassmen, professors, and alumni. Mentors will be able to advise you on all aspects of your life and will enable you to maximize your academic, personal, social, and professional success. By using the networking tips described above, you will develop strong relationships with a set of mentors who will be pivotal for your success
  1. Have fun!
Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, have fun! College is an amazing time wherever you end up going, so make sure as a student that you periodically put the books away and go to a frat party, floor party, and/or other social event(s). Never again in your life will it be deemed “okay” and “normal” to stay up into the wee hours of the morning drinking (or not drinking) and partying on a weekly basis. Take advantage of this time and have fun! Don’t get in trouble or break the law, but do make sure you do some memorable things so that you’ll have stories to tell and reminisce about when you hang out with your college buddies after you graduate.
Wherever you go to school, you’re going to have an awesome time. I sincerely mean that. Best of luck next year and as they say in theater, break a leg!
submitted by elitecollegethroaway to ApplyingToCollege [link] [comments]

Madden Ultimate Team 21: Ultimate Kickoff Promo Breakdown

The Ultimate Kickoff promo was a welcome surprise in Madden Ultimate Team in Madden 19 and an innovative promo in MUT 20. The MUT 21 version is ... well, it's a promo timed to the launch of the 2020 NFL season, at least?

Structure

Ultimate Kickoff loosely resembles its MUT 20 iteration, with the major changes this year being the reversion to a MUT 19-style use of Heroes and a new deployment of a single Master, the removal of team-specific players that would grow with team performance over the course of the season, and a revamp of the team-specific collectibles that will provide Training when ultimately sold.

Players

There are dozens of new Elite-level players at 81, 83, and 85 OVR in Ultimate Kickoff, but just six players above 85 OVR -- the four 88 OVR Heroes, a 90 OVR Master Dolphins CB Byron Jones, and a 90 OVR LTD WR Brandin Cooks that is arguably the game's best wideout.
Jones is obviously a (and maybe the) top-tier corner in a game with a handful of them, and a Powered Up Cooks actually beats out a Powered Up Tyreek Hill, so there is some potency at the very top end of this promo. But the Heroes (who all, like Jones and Cooks, changed teams this offseason) are all underwhelming: Todd Gurley is a virtual clone of the just-released Ezekiel Elliott from Superstar MVPs, and the other three Ultimate Kickoff Heroes all play with hands in the dirt, with LT Trent Williams serving as the other offensive Hero and DT Linval Joseph and DE Yannick Ngakoue taking up the two defensive spots.
Notably, there are three Rookie Premiere players included in the lower tiers of Ultimate Kickoff, so those players with the Rookie Premiere versions of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Patrick Queen, and Chase Young will see those cards upgraded in their Item Binders when they log in to MUT.
Unlike in MUT 20, however, these players do not grow or change with team performances as the year progresses, meaning that there's no simple way to use them as investments. I expect that to be disappointing to many players; I know it is, to some degree, for me.

Currency

The first new promo/program currency of MUT 21 is here, in the form of Ultimate Kickoff's Footballs. Players can quicksell Ultimate Kickoff players (except for the LTD Cooks, who quicksells for 250K Coins) for Footballs, and can use Footballs in the Store to buy Ultimate Kickoff players or the Team Performance Tokens that can be exchanged for Performance Collectibles.

Challenges

There are two sequences of Challenges new to the game with Ultimate Kickoff, one each for the AFC and NFC. They seem like moments-style Challenges, and the AFC sequence returns a total of 8,250 Coins for completion.
The NFC set of challenges, however, is set to unlock on Thursday, September 17 -- and that means that the Milestones list, which awards 115 Footballs and two Hero Tokens for full completion, can't be fully completed until next Thursday.
Two Hero Tokens can be exchanged for a Hero, so that's a fairly good reward, but staggering the Challenge release so that they can't be earned today via Challenges alone is a bit of a bummer.

House Rules

However: House Rules makes its triumphant (?) return to Madden Ultimate Team for the first time in many months with this Ultimate Kickoff promo, and players can play it from now until next Thursday to earn a Hero Token, among other things.
10 wins in the mode -- set up in overtime with the collegiate ruleset allowing players to trade possessions, and dubbed Back to School -- this week earns that Hero Token, while full completion comes at 40 wins and can get you that Token and a total of 65 Footballs, 140 Series 1 Trophies, and 18,000 Coins, plus 300 Coins per win and 100 Coins per loss.
These rewards aren't staggering, but they're a decent start, especially for an iteration of House Rules that could yield two wins in 10 minutes if things break right ... and as House Rules victories are, at this moment, counting toward the Series 1 Multiplayer list, there's some significant double-dip potential available here.

Store

New packs and new re-roll Store opportunities with an alternate/in-game currency allow for some arbitrage opportunities, generally. I'm not sure I see them with Ultimate Kickoff.
The problem is the Ultimate Kickoff Pack (50,000 Coins or 900 Points), which contains just one guaranteed program players and only a 39 percent chance of an 83+ OVR pull; the 11 percent shot at an 85+ OVR card is pretty tiny for a nearly $10 pack. The $20/2,200-point and $50/5,850-point bundles are also bummer, as the former is just three packs at a 500-point discount on individual purchases and the latter includes just eight packs and a single 81+ OVR program card as a topper; the discount is okay, but that topper is also available by itself for 150 points, and its odds are worse than the pack's at 34 percent for an 83+ and 8.7 percent for an 85+.
The $100/12,000-point bundle is significantly better, with 17 packs (that would run you 15,600 points individually) and an Ultimate Kickoff Hero Fantasy Pack that guarantees you're no worse than 25 percent of the way to Byron Jones ... but a $100 bundle getting you only halfway or so to a Master is not the value most players seek.
And the Footballs and Training re-rolls depend on players ripping packs to get Auction House prices to levels where profitability is possible. 75 Footballs for an 81-85 OVR program player probably only breaks the user's way at the 85 OVR pull, though, and 600 Footballs for a Hero Fantasy Pack suggests that even the high-level cards in Ultimate Kickoff don't sell for many Footballs. 400 Footballs for a single Team Performance Token is also a tough sell, as it seems like you'll need to either sell a Hero or other cards to get 400 Footballs, but a guaranteed 2.5x multiplier (that could, in theory, yield as much as 17,000 Training, a 40+x multiplier on an initial investment) is pretty good in terms of converting Footballs to Training.
And yet MUT's own economics suggest that even 5x is too low for Footballs to Training, as you can pull the same level for an 81-85 OVR Ultimate Kickoff player for 75 Footballs or 400 Training. I doubt that Footballs will melt into Training at that rate when the promo ends, so there's definitely incentive to use them while you can, but that sort of conversion rate speaks to their value.
Finally, there's what I think is a new wrinkle for this promo: Series Trophies can be used to get a promo player for what I think is the first time since the introduction of alternate currencies to MUT midway through the MUT 19 cycle, with 750 Series Trophies yielding an Ultimate Kickoff Hero Fantasy Pack. As those Heroes are likely to fetch around 200K on the Auction House, that's not a bad guaranteed return on investment for successful players by any means.

Sets

There isn't a whole lot of intrigue to the Sets of Ultimate Kickoff. Just three produce players; the other subset yields the 32 Team Performance Collectibles, all of which require the Team Performance Tokens players can obtain via the Store.
The two sets for Heroes are distinct: One returns a choice of NAT Hero in exchange for two Hero Tokens, and is a single-completion affair; the other is repeatable, produces a choice of auctionable Hero, and requires one 85, two 83, and four 81 OVR Ultimate Kickoff players.
The Master set requires all four Heroes, and returns Jones and his Power Up and users' choice of two NAT Heroes.
submitted by AndyHutchins to Gutfoxx [link] [comments]

List of organizations, players speaking out on police brutality and racial inequalities

Earlier post (courtesy of skinemergency) and subsequent discussion here.
I wanted to compile a list of social media posts, statements, and other messages from around the NWSL regarding George Floyd's murder, racial inequality, Black Lives Matter, and protests. This is in no way exhaustive, but I will try to keep updating it.
To the black members of this sub: I'm so sorry for the pain and exhaustion that you're feeling, right now and in your day-to-day lives. I know that this sport isn't always as welcoming to you as it needs to be, and I plan on keeping that in mind moving forward. I've thought a lot about the best ways to center black experiences in this post, and hope to have done so in a way that doesn't demand additional emotional labor from any of you. That said, if there's anything you'd like to add to or change about this post, I'll make it happen.
Everyone else: if you're able to do so, please consider donating to Black Lives Matter, the NAACP's Legal Defense Fund, Colin Kaepernick's Know Your Rights Camp (which has announced a legal defense fund for protestors), Reclaim the Block, or any of the other legitimate organizations working to support protestors and black communities (not Shaun King). If you want to invest in education, Rachel Cargle and Layla Saad both offer a number of free and paid resources. I also encourage you to watch the video that Trevor Noah put out yesterday.
If you're inclined to give money in honor of Pride Month, consider donating to the National Center for Transgender Equality or other organizations listed here. Edit 6/3: Rhea Butcher shared this list of Black-led LGBTQ organizations.
Posts by Black and Biracial Players
Posts and messages from other black women and predominantly black organizations in sports
Soccer Organizations
Brands
NWSL Clubs
Other Teams/Clubs
Supporters Groups (most have been incredibly active on TwitteInstagram)
White/non-black POC players (the majority of NWSL and USWNT players have been sharing posts by BPOC, along with anti-racism resources and players association/club statements; this is in no way an exhaustive list)
Retired Players
Carli Lloyd tweets, responses
submitted by Emm03 to NWSL [link] [comments]

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