For myself, life over the past few years has seemingly gone from bad to worse - and before I go into the details -this isn’t a “pity-post” or a sympathy searching exercise, this is simply a warning, and hopefully a lesson to others who are entering the crypto scene.
My crypto journey began back in earnest at the start of that famed 2017 “bull run” – I had a little bit in savings and had done my due diligence – this really was the future, and it could potentially set me and my family up for life.
I bought in with every bit of money I had to spare. All told, it was about £6,500, and the price of Bitcoin sat at just under £9,000.
This was exciting. The price continued to increase and I religiously opened and closed the Coinbase website to see the price soar by the hundreds and into the thousands. Work took a backseat and I became consumed with the markets, red and green candles being the first and last things I saw in the day.
I wanted more. I became envious of those that had bought into cryptos years before. So I looked at alternate avenues to increase my Bitcoin holdings… this was going to be the making of me! Sadly it turned out to be quite the opposite.
Scams, Scams everywhere…
The first venture I looked into was a third party bitcoin mining platform which promised exponential growth. It sounded too good to be true (spoiler: it was). I used a credit card to buy more Bitcoin. First mistake. I maxed the card and sent around £6,000 in Bitcoin to a mining company known as Crypterra. The reviews were good, the discord was active, people were seeing payouts – it was all looking legitimate. But of course it wasn’t. Payouts dried up. The devs went silent and the site disappeared and re-appeared sporadically before going offline indefinitely. It was over and I had lost most of the £6,000 from my credit card.
Robots are the future?
The price of Bitcoin was still holding strong and I’d made small gains with my original investment which was still untouched. Perhaps I could increase by Bitcoin gains elsewhere and pay off the credit card I had maxed out.
Again, I looked into ways to bolster my Bitcoin reservesI looked into trading platforms, cryptocurrency bots in particular. How hard could it be? As long as the price of Bitcoin went up, it should balance out any losses as I learned the ropes. There were a few that caught my eye. And following what I thought was sage “youtuber” advice – I dove into the world of trading with bots – linking up a Binance account and setting up my automated systems to work their magic and trade whilst I was asleep/working/sitting on the toilet, you name it.
As you can imagine, these bots weren’t the holy grail they were promoted to be, and I was losing Bitcoin left, right and centre. I became more and more “experimental” with the strategies… doubling my stakes, tripling my stakes to recoup what I had lost. I didn’t see it as real money (despite paying with hard earned money to fund these accounts) – it was magic internet money, just ones and zeroes – so the reality of it didn’t hit home how much I was actually losing. Shock horror, I lost it all.
Taking it to the bookies…
I had effectively been gambling my money away, and in my increasingly agitated state I sought out other communities to try and regain my money. Sports-betting communities, gambling communities, Twitter “tipsters” and Facebook groups who had all the inside knowledge.
I was down over £12,000 from my savings and the £6,500 from the credit card combined. I decided to open another two credit cards. One to fund my betting account and the other for backup. I quickly went through the first card’s funds, but I was ‘still learning’, this was ‘Ok’ – next time I would get it right. The second card (third in total) was quickly exhausted, and I was now close to £20,000 in the hole from when I started, all within just a few months.
The hole grew ever darker
As I write this now I am actually afraid and embarrassed to share the total losses I have made over the past few years (it’s actually much worse than I could have ever imagined). I have no-one to blame but myself; the greed, stupidity and at times, pure arrogance have lead me down this path. A path which at the moment seems irreversible for me.
To see the price of Bitcoin now makes me feel physically sick – if only I had been patient. If only I hadn’t chased my losses, if only I hadn’t played with money that wasn’t mine - I wouldn’t be in this predicament. As the debt mounts ever higher and interest rates on credit cards are crippling me, it will be an incredibly long time before I have any financial stability again. It has made me mentally unwell and I’m still figuring out the next steps which I know include professional support and removing my head from the pile of sand in which I have buried it.
I sincerely hope that those who read this account of my situation don’t fall into the same trap. The world is once again hyped for crypto, and with it come the pitfalls and scams and false promises of financial freedom and becoming rich. Don’t try and cheat the system, don’t chase your losses and don’t use money that isn’t yours in the first place.
TLDR:
To put it succinctly, the above is a very short overview of the financial hole I have found myself due to greed, arrogance and stupidity over the past few years. Hopefully a warning to others. Don’t chase losses, don’t look for the next get rich scheme and don’t invest money that isn’t yours to start with. Basically, don’t ruin your life like me. If only I had just held.
EDIT:
A quick edit to say thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read the above and replied in the comments. I've had some very honest and insightful responses and some incredibly useful suggestions about how I can bring myself back from this dilemma. I'll be seeking professional help both for the gambling and the debt management and hopefully get myself on the right track for the sake of my own sanity and that of my family's.

PSA for new Dogecoin / Crypto buyers

Some points to newcomers after reading some frightening comments over in dogecoin:
·If you don't hold the keys to the crypto, you don't own the crypto. If you can't even withdraw the crypto, you definitely don't own the crypto. RH doesn't sell crypto, period. They sell supposed unwithdrawable custodian rights to crypto, and we are hopefully now all aware that RH is full of crap.
·Setting price targets like that of Bitcoin (30k or whatever) is completely nonsensical. Bitcoin has 18M coins out of 21M total possible mined coins. Dogecoin has 128B coins right now, thats 7100x as many. DOGE also doesnt haven't a hard cap due to regularly halving rewards, so its not deflationary in the way BTC is. It would need a market cap of $4Quadrillion to hit Bitcoin levels. In other words, bigger than all equity markets combined afaik. Dollar cost average (DCA) sells on the way up unless you want to drop off the cliff of euphoria into a 50-90% loss like Jan 2018 for a lot of people here. Its already x8 in a week. Bull runs rarely take coins more than x20 or so in a single major rally, and rallies are normally spaced a couple of years or so apart.
·Don't chase rallies. Buying significant positions after a 800% rally is a good way to be left holding bags. You should be DCAing buys, not throwing all of your savings at it at once. Its also pretty stupid to be all-in on a 9B mcap coin. That's high risk gambling if you're dropping most of your assets into it. It will legitimately most likely throw you into a year or two long depression if you lose half of your savings on Fing Dogecoin.
·Crypto should not be a significant part of your investments. If you're throwing most of your assets in this, and especially at one coin at the end of a major rally, you're not only placing yourself at an insane amount of risk, but you put steady growth of the asset at risk when you inevitably panic sell once the momentum runs out or a big seller enters the market. Everyone in crypto has done this to some degree. Its easy to say diamond hands all you want, and convince a thousand other sardines to buy in, and then have a whale decide they want to sell $200M worth over the next month who doesnt give a shit how it effects you. People have their own motives, and most whales probably aren't on Reddit. The people posting six figure holdings aren't remotely close to whale territory. There's 15 addresses with more than 1 Billion DOGE, and more than 100 with over 100 Million DOGE. Those people could potentially wipe out a rally solo.
·Diversify your bonds. Have other investment vehicles, AND other coins. My favorite analogy is that of a castle. You want to build your castle with stable assets, this is your emergency cash fund, index/mutual funds, maybe some large cap stocks, real estate, bonds. That should comprise at least 50%, ideally 80-90%, of your assets. Speculative investments are the raiding party that you send out to loot shit once the castle is built. That's riskier stocks, options, cryptocurrency, etc. Yes, its possible to get lucky if you're solely doing speculative gambling, but its fucking reckless and stupid, and for every DeepFuckingValue, theres 20 people posting loss porn about how they took out a loan for a crypto/options play and got destroyed. It's rolling around with a small army with no defensive position. Really easy to get annihilated by shifting tides in the market, particularly when its all in ONE position.
·Time in the market > timing the market. Quit trying to get rich in 3 weeks, or you'll end up constantly desperate for get rich quick schemes because you never bothered to build a stable base. Having a large emergency fund, and a significant amount of assets because you played it safe is a peace of mind that you cannot know until you have it. Don't throw away the possibility of that in a few years because you wanted to YOLO into Doge and be rich next month.
·The diamond hand thing is really...unconvincing, in case you're wondering. If you're trying that hard to convince yourself and others that you can hang on, you won't. Because anyone who's trying to convince themselves of it is clearly not used to having investments go +100-2000%, especially at the speed that crypto does it, so you won't have any instinct for when to take profits. Greed will set in, and you'll convince yourself that it can survive any correction, and you'll still be waiting for the quick recovery once it drops 60-80% and sits there for 2 years. People who do well in this market have limited exposure, and thus can basically forget about their coins for months or years, because they have other investments and secure finances whether crypto does anything or goes to 0. Euphoria and blind optimism doesn't keep someone holding until something goes x100+. Indifference, apathy, and patience are the more frequent catalysts, because you arent checking Blockfolio every 20 minutes and goading yourself into a panic sell when it corrects hard or crashes. Living in an emotional state thats constantly tied to whether the market is red or green blows. Most of us in crypto experienced at least a little of that in our first year or so. In a away, its exciting because the risk doesn't let you focus on anything else, but its a horrific way to live. The mania eventually gives way into broke disillusionment if you don't have at least a partial exit strategy.
Good luck and be safe. I'm sure this sub would really prefer not having to sticky the suicide hotline number again
Edit: please take note of ajaxhacker who has posted numerous comments to this thread spamming amc, nok, gme. This is shilling 101. "We the people have spoken"...lmao. Okay buddy. If the people had actually spoken it would involve financial regulation, not trying to make a quick buck. You think we haven't seen this crap before? People were doing this nonstop in 2017 with crypto. Your know what happened? Whales gobbled up everyone, a few shrimp got minted into sharks, but mostly...the rich got richer. Institutions will happily take profits off these before all retail investors have the opportunity to. Who, once again, don't give a shit about "holding the line with their diamond hands" and you losing money, because they've been holding since fall of last year and are already +10s of millions or whatever. Don't be naive and don't get stuck holding bags. This type of sentiment is your worst enemy in trading and is one of the earliest and most painful lessons in speculative markets. These are the whales Im talking about:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/reddit-day-trader-army-fattens-fortunes-of-world-s-super-rich

The next BTC crash could be something to behold

Also on my blog with better formatting, cute footnotes and inlined images.
Note that not much here is new material, mostly rehashing existing points.

Disclaimer

This article started out as research for my betting against Bitcoin on the stock market. This isn't financial advice. As a matter of fact, I encourage all readers you to not buy or short crypto, through any market or derivative. Use your money for productive uses.
Here's a TL;DR:

The current parabolic price increase in Bitcoin is a bubble that has started popping.
A stablecoin called Tether is either one of the largest frauds or money laundering operation in history, and is providing most of the liquidity in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
A BTC bubble pop, incoming regulation on stablecoins or the current NYAG investigation into tether will expose tether's insolvency to the crypto market. This is bigger than it sounds.
(Speculative, but one can hope) Current prices to mine BTC could end up higher than BTC market price, exposing BTC to a 51% attack.

A Recap: Bitcoin is useless and should go away

Bitcoin serves no purpose. Let's just rehash that by quickly debunking the major claimed uses over time as seen here

Proof of concept: No argument here, but now that the market cap of cryptocurrencies is closing in on a $700B, this seems moot.
Cheap Payment Network: Nonsense, since BTC transactions are currently >$10 and this worsens the more people use it.
Anonymous Darknet Currency: I'd have said "no argument here", but apparently it's surprisingly easy to trace BTC nowadays. However, crypto ecosystem as a whole seems to do a decent job at laundering money as we'll see later.
Reserve Currency for Crypto: Since a reserve currency should be useful as a means of exchange, and I wrote several thousand words on how BTC is not that, my position is pretty clear. Also, the fact that a cryptocurrency indexed to the US dollar has trounced BTC as the main means of exchange in the crypto ecosystem speaks for itself.
Programmable Shared Database: You know what's programmable, shared and a database? The database we use at work. Just learn to implement access control lists on your SQL server.
Uncorrelated Financial Asset: Given BTC crashed just like the rest of the market when COVID showed up, this doesn't hold up

The stupidest version of the "uncorrelated asset" argument I hear is "Bitcoin is a great hedge for inflation!"
You know what's a good "hedge for inflation"? Literally anything. The definition of inflation is "the price of money". If the price of money goes down (inflation) then everything else has a positive return by comparison.
People who say "bitcoin is a good hedge for inflation" shouldn't be trusted to manage their own money, let alone give financial advice to anyone.

Censorship Resistant e-Gold: This is a roundabout way of saying "BTC is a store of value"! Which, again, can only be said by people who've never read the definition of "store of value" in a textbook.

I already went into detail into this, but BTC is a terrible store of value because it's volatile. Assets that can lose 20% of value overnight don't "store value". BTC is a "vehicle for speculation".
The only way price is sustained for BTC is that you can find some other idiot to sell it to. Just as a reminder, 50% of Gold is used for things that aren't speculation, like Jewelry, so you'll never have to worry finding a seller there.
Here are some real uses for bitcoin:

Gambling is fun. You buy BTC, the price might go up! Or down! This is exciting.
Hackers, money launderers and other criminals certainly find cryptocurrencies useful.

Reminder: BTC is an ecological scourge
The current cost to mine a BTC is around $8000 in electricity. This electricity mostly comes from subsidized coal in China.
And given the current amount of BTC generated each day, we're using about equivalent to the electricity from all of Belgium, largely in coal, to keep this going.
I don't mind wasting time on intellectual curiosities, but destroying our planet for glorified gambling is not something I'm happy about. I want cryptocurrencies to go away entirely on this basis, philosophically.

Current BTC prices are a bubble

Before we go into tether, reminder that at the time of writing, the plot of BTC price against the S&P500 looks like this
BTC price has increased by ~800% since March. Still, no one uses it for anything useful since the last bubble in 2017, or the other one before that in 2013. This is another bubble however you put it.
BTC is not "new technology"
10 years the internet became popular, Google and Amazon already existed. We're 8 years after the popular emergence of deep learning and it has already revolutionized machine translation, computer vision and natural language processing in general.
You could argue that deep learning and the internet existed before their emergence, but so did cryptocurrencies. Look up b-money and hashcash for instance.
Bitcoin has existed since 2008 and emerged in popularity around the same time as deep learning did, yet we're still to find actual uses for it except speculation and criminal uses. It's a solution waiting for a problem.
Institutional investors are also idiots
The narrative this time is that "institutional investors" are buying into BTC. This doesn't mean it's not a bubble.
Many of the institutions were buying through Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Rather, many of them were chasing the premium over net asset value that hovered around 20%. Basically, lock money in GBTC for 6 months, cash out and collect the premium as profit. Of course, this little Ponzi couldn't last forever and the premium seems to be evaporating now.
Similarly, totally-not-a-bitcoin-ETF-wearing-a-software-company-skinsuit Microstrategy (MSTR) trades at a massive premium over fundamentals.
There will always be traders chasing bonuses from numbers going up, regardless what is making the number going up. The same "institutional investors" were buying obviously terrible CDOs in the run-up to 2008.

Tether is lunacy

Tether is a cryptocurrency whose exchange rate is supposed to be pegged to the US Dollar. Initially this was done by having 1-to-1 US Dollar reserves for each tether issued. Then they got scammed by their money launderer, losing some $800M, which made them insolvent.
Anyway, now tether maintains their reserves are whatever they want them to be and they haven't gotten audited since 2017.
You know, normal stuff.
There's a problem to backing your USD-pegged security with something that isn't US Dollars. Namely, if the price of the thing you're backing your US Dollars against goes down, you're now insolvent. If you were backing $10B in tether with $10B of bitcoin, then the bitcoin drops by half, you're insolvent by $5B.
And then this spotlessly clean company they somehow added $20B to their balance sheet in the second half of 2020
Reminder: one side of that balance sheet is currently floating around the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Cryptocurrency traders own it as an asset and sell it to others. The other half of the balance sheet is whatever tether wants.
There are only two possibilities that explain tether's growth:

Massive unbacked issuances, because they're afraid their scam has run its course.
Money laundering. Lots of it.

It could also be a happy mix of both.
One particularly interesting date is 30/8/2020, where tether added $3B to its balance sheet overnight. This is interesting because it predates the subsequent movement in bitcoin price and large movements in other cryptocurrencies.
The story from tether and tether's bank's CEO is that this money largely comes from foreign nationals through an OTC desk which implies the transaction goes as following:

A foreign national sends money in a foreign currency to an OTC desk. This is exactly as clean as you'd think -- often raw cash transactions in the millions.
That OTC desk converts the money to USD and sends it to tether's correspondent US bank. The OTC desk gives tether to the foreign national.
Wait tether has a correspondent US bank?

Oh, I forgot to mention, no bank wants tether as a customer because they obviously break KYC/AML compliance. So tether first ~~bought~~ invested in a bank called Noble which then lost its relationship with Wells-Fargo when they realized tether were lying to them about AML. Poor tether lost its legal access to USD.
Tether has been banking in the Bahamas with a bank called Deltec since. First they had a money launderer called Crypto Capital Corp to send funds to customers, who stole the $800M from them and subsequently went to jail.
But worry not! Tether found a way to get banked in USD afterwards. Curious coincidence, an executive at Deltec was randomly blogging about buying small US community banks in 2018. You know, that thing money launderers do.
So tether's story is that in 2020, they took in roughly twenty billion USD of shady foreign money into the small community US bank their deltec bankers bought. These transactions are necessarily breaking KYC/AML. The foreign parties to those transactions wouldn't take such a rickety route to convert billions into cryptocurrencies if they weren't laughed out of the room in serious banks.
But of course, Deltec will say it did KYC on tether. Really solid KYC, clearly, since they're the last bank on earth taking tether's business. Tether says they do KYC on their customers (the large OTC desks). And I'm sure the OTC desks would be shocked, shocked if the cash money they get in Russia and China turns out to be dirty. So everyone can pass the buck of responsibility down the road and claim "We do KYC on our customers".
Sure you do, tether. If you did such great KYC, you wouldn't have such problems finding banking relationships. I mean when even HSBC is not doing business with you you're apparently more obviously moving criminal money than fucking drug cartels.
And, according to tether's people, this money is what's backing tether's reserves. Money that will get frozen the instant a prosecutor even looks at it.
Reminder: the above is the charitable, positive case for tether.
The less charitable case is that they took crayons and added zeros to their balance sheet, and that there's a couple billions waiting to burn a hole in the crypto ecosystem.
Anyway, the $25B garbage fire that is tether will make a great book/netflix series at some point and their hilariously stupid CTO going on podcasts while flinching on questions about how BTC ended up on their balance sheet will be a fun part of it.
But I'm not here to write a book, I'm here to make money by shorting all of this. For my purposes, even in the positive case tether is a ticking time bomb waiting to burn a hole in the crypto ecosystem, because...

KYC and AML are coming for cryptocurrencies

If you listen to "crypto news", all incoming crypto regulation is just great, because that means crypto is becoming legit. However, companies investing in crypto are very angry about them.
This is because crypto transactions break the FinCEN travel rule, where KYC information should "travel" along transactions, to prevent money laundering obfuscation schemes.
Of course, according to the crypto industry this is "stifling innovation". A more reasonable take is that by being leaving the crypto industry outside normal financial regulations, we're enabling a "race to the bottom". As we saw with shadow banks in the 2000-2007 era this leads to "creative banking". I don't want my bankers to be creative, I want them to be solvent.

Tether's effect on the crypto ecosystem

When tether implodes, it's taking most of the crypto industry along for a fun ride. Tether can implode in one of a few ways:

A BTC price crash triggers it. If
Regulators decide they've had enough of AML avoidance and regulate them.
The NYAG investigation, which is waiting for an update in a few weeks, finds something and shuts them out.

Let's assume tether falls to $0 for simplicity. The analysis is the same directionally if tether significantly "breaks the buck".
This doesn't happen instantly, but it happens quickly. The peg breaks, and most people holding tether will try to sell it for other crypto (BTC, ETH, etc.). This puts downward pressure on the price of tether, incentivizing even more people to "pass the buck". Automated inter-exchange arbitrage bots might try to exploit emerging gaps in bid-ask spreads, only to end up with worthless tether instead, as their operators rush to pull the plug.
Then, we have a small village of cryptocurrency enthusiasts being out some $24B. With the trading bots turned off and the trading lubricant (a dollar pegged asset) gone, the bid-ask spreads blow up. You get a predictable flight to safety -- that is, to real money. This puts downward pressure on BTC.
While all of this is happening, there are all sorts of fun second-order effects happen. A lot of DeFi derivative products are priced in cryptocurrencies, so having normally stable prices shuffle around (eg. USDC price moving above $1 in a flight to safety) triggers a tsunami of margin calls. Some exchanges might insolvent (they're the ones redeeming tether for USD after all).

If BTC price drops below $8000, fun things happen

Currently, the price to mine a BTC is roughly $8000. Most of the mining comes from huge mining farms using subsidized coal in China, and mining costs more the more hardware there is to mine it.
Since the price of BTC hasn't substantially dropped below cost to mine we're in for a fun experiment if the price drops below this threshold. Most of these farms should turn off so that the price to mine comes back to breakeven in a case of prisoner's dilemma.
But if too much hardware turns off, this leaves mining hardware idle and the door becomes wide open to a 51% attack. It's not clear at what price below breakeven cost to mine a 51% attack becomes a serious threat, but once this threshold is crossed, we're in the "irreparable harm to BTC" risk zone.
And for a person like me, who just wants to see crypto disappear forever this is very exciting.
Maybe those mining farms could be replaced with nice forests soaking up all the carbon they emitted for posterity. One can hope.

How do I bet against all of this?

Microstrategy (MSTR) is, at this point, a bitcoin ETF wearing the skinsuit of a dying software company.
Michael Saylor, MSTR's CEO, is quite the character. I wrote a lot about his lack understanding of what a currency is, but it's on another level to look at the early stages of a bubble pop and decide this is a good time to buy $10M more of the stuff, as seen here
However, this bubble is tame by Michael's standards. Look at the historical stock of his company
What's happening on the left is that Saylor pumped the numbers with accounting fraud then the SEC took issue with the fake numbers. The stock dropped 90% practically overnight. Their accountants, PWC, paid $51M in fines. Saylor and friends paid fines, partly with company stock.
You could also short GBTC, but when Mr. Saylor provides you with an options market instead, why not use it? Shorting on crypto exchanges that might become insolvent in the very event you want to happen with this bet is a bad idea, on the other hand.

Mike can't cash out

The bitcoin market is illiquid and leveraged when it comes to real money coming in and leaving the ecosystem. Buys in the $10M-$100M seemingly move the price of BTC by upwards of $1000 in the last weeks. This means hundreds of millions of real money means tens of billions in movement in BTC market capitalization.
Now imagine what cashing $1.1B of BTC into real money would mean for the price. And this is purely in market terms, before the PR damage from bitcoin's demigod abandoning ship would have second-order effects.
Saylor has painted himself into a corner. Even if he wanted to cash out, he can't.

MSTR fundamentals: Why it should be valued below $10

In early 2020, MSTR was a slowly dying business. The EBITDA has been rapidly evaporating in the last 5 years
At that point, MSTR a stock price of $115 meaning a market cap of $1.1B. This included some $560M of cash they were sitting on. I presume the remaining $550M was an implicit sales premium for the inevitable private equity firm investors expected was going to relieve them of this stock and make the business profitable again.
Of course, they didn't sell.
Instead, they took the $560m they were sitting on and bought $400m of BTC at prices $11k and $13k in late summer 2020. Then, in early December, they took on $600m of debt to buy BTC with at $23k. They also bought $10m more in January at a price of $30.5k.
At this point, we can mostly value MSTR like a trust.

Price the underlying software business as being worth $600M, as the market did before the bitcoin nonsense. If BTC went to $0, this is what we'd value it at, and the MSTR stock should be around $65.
But wait! MSTR took on $650M in debt in December. Their actual value with a BTC priced at $0 should be much, much lower than $65 depending on how you value the debt. You could make an argument it should be in the single digits.
They hold 70,784 BTC. At current prices ($32,000) this is worth roughly $2.2B. With the current market cap of MSTR ($577 stock price), this means MSTR is currently priced at an eye watering $3B premium over fundamental value.

GBTC's 20% premium-to-NAV is a joke compared to the MSTR premium.

With the recent influx of new users - I decided to post a guide to Pump and Dump schemes - what they are, how to avoid them and how to move on from them

TLDR: Following the recent DOGE and XRP situations, and our influx of new users - I have decided to put together a quick guide on what a pump and dump is, how to spot it, how to avoid it, and what to do should you fall for one. This is just my thoughts on the issue and by no means exhaustive. I welcome comments and my biggest recommendation if you fell for one of these schemes is to accept it, address your emotions, seek support - either by those around you or here if you feel more comfortable, then commit to educating yourself.

Summary:

A pump and dump scheme is where a group of people pitch a coin (or stock) to other people to spike short term volume, and therefore the price, in order to profit from selling their own supply at the higher price to the newer investors.

How to spot a PnD:

Promises of huge gains
Forced short time frames to make a decision
No discussion of risk - or questioning permitted
The opportunity finds you, you don't find the opportunity
Comparison to recent success stories - e.g. GME (dubious whether this will even be a success long term for individuals)

Tips to avoid - see below but the main two for me are:

Recognise emotional decision making, in yourself, and when it comes from others (people you may normally trust). You need to recognise this behaviour, and cut it out at source. To step back and breathe.
Ask yourself, what are they selling me on, and why? If they find you, you are being sold. That is all there is to it.

What is a Pump and Dump scheme?

A Pump and Dump scheme (PnD from here on in), is where an investor, or group of investors promote a coin they already hold (or are purchasing) in order to cause positive sentiment and the price to rise. At this point these investors will then sell their coins to the newer investors, causing the price to crash and leave the people who fell for the PnD with a large potential loss, or coins which are now worth a lot less than the price they paid for them.
These are not new and were traditionally done via phone call. If you have watched the Wolf of Wall Street, or similar films about penny stocks, you have seen this stuff in action. If you are buying, you are the retail investor who gets taken for a ride.
With the recent influx of new users to this site, and following the PnD schemes surrounding Doge and XRP, lets take a look at how to spot a PnD scheme

How to spot a PnD scheme?

Promises of huge gains, in a short amount of time. If it sounds too good to be true, it is. In crypto (and stocks) if someone is talking to you about something, they are selling you their position. If it is positive - they likely own it, if it negative - they either want prices to fall or they hold a competitor. Ask yourself, why someone would be going out their way to tell you something is a once in a lifetime opportunity? If it was, they would be keeping it secret and accumulating themselves. These people are salesman, and you are the one buying the bullshit
Linked to the above there is often a time element - 'get in quick, or you will miss it', they are relying on your impulsive decision making to jump in - they are manipulating you to over ride the logical part of your brain which makes decisions based on information and context
There is no discussion of any potential risks or downsides, and you are removed from groups or harassed for asking basic questions - this is a hive mind at work, and you are being censored from raising any concern or legitimate question.
There may be reference to 'how this time is different', or it plays on recent successes which are in no way comparable - e.g Game Stop - anyone who paused for a second would realise why not only was financially the short squeeze on GME completely different, but also the moral stand point was too. XRP, for example, is a centralised system which enriches the founders beyond belief. Yet these groups tried to ride the sentiment of GME to convince others to join - as a show of rebellion and alliance.
Social media storms are cooked up, it seems like out of nowhere this is all anyone can talk about - when has this ever proven a successful decision? Once everyone is talking about it, you are already too late. You may not lose money, if you are lucky, but you are still the one being duped. Again this is feeding on emotion and Fear of Missing Out. There will be groups created and ran by mods who run them like cults - no talk of anything but price going up is accepted.
There is a time or plan attached - e.g. Pump and Hold at 8:30. For the love of god, if this is the case, sell before then. All the leaders of these groups will have done. All of these public announcements are done again to create legitimacy and make you feel at ease - as a collective.
Generally any concept of 'we are in this together', coming from a group trying to actively push up the price of something short term = PnD. You are not in this together, markets are competitive - they are survival of the fittest whether you like it or not. They want your money, when you listen to them - you are basically offering to hand it over. People invest to make money, especially when the entire premise is pushing a price up to get rich. They do not want what is good for you, they are using you and they will take your money if you allow them to. They are telling you, because you are the opportunity - not the coin.
Be aware, people telling you to hold and buy more, are using you. They want you to push the price back up so they can sell. If you are in these groups - on social media, be aware you may be talking to bots, or at the least people who are trying to dump on you. When it drops, get out.

How to avoid PnDs in future

'Why are they telling me this?' - this is the first and main question to ask yourself. What does the person sharing the information have to gain from telling me? In this case - you invest and push the price up, allowing them to make greater profit. Understand why they would be sharing details with you - if it such a great thing, why are they sharing it?
if it is a friend telling you, ask for more information - why it is doing well, what the plan is etc - if they can't explain it properly, this is a big red flag and they likely have fallen for it too.
Look out for how someone talks to you about it - is it emotionally driven, does it make you excited? scared to miss out? - This is exactly when you need to step back, breathe and ask yourself if you are thinking correctly. Emotional decision making is not a good thing here, and then ask if they are intentionally trying to get an emotional reaction out of you? (see the above - FOMO, get rich quick etc)
Is there any room for nuance? Are you able to discuss the potential cons or risk? If you are laughed at, or harassed, others are told to ignore you (he won't be getting rich, weak hands, pathetic seller) - this is a huge sign that you are investing in something where no other thoughts are allowed. The reason for this, once you are out the bubble - logic returns and you see the smoke and mirrors for what they are. PnD groups work like a cult, only one form of thinking is allowed, everything else is censored.
Did this come out of nowhere, do I even know anything about this? If you don't know anything about it, except it makes money, don't invest in it. This is a terrible decision for two reasons. Firstly, and most obviously, you have asymmetric information - you have no idea why and what you are buying, therefore can't make an informed decision - only an emotional one. Equally, this kind of thing pushes panicked, emotional selling. When you don't know fundamental reasons why you invest in something, when the price dips you will sell. Why? because when your brain asks you the question 'shit it is dropping, what do we do?!' - your logical brain won't have an answer, because you never gave it the information to form one. This second part is more relevant to regular investments, not PnDs of course, but is worth bearing in mind before you invest in anything.
Was the coin relatively stagnant, or has it dipped recently? PnDs typically target coins which haven't moved much recently, or have lower trading volume, this allows for a much easier spiking of the price due to a small change in demand equalling a big change in price. If you look at the charts and it was doing nothing until this big flurry of activity - you are being taken for a ride.
Look for the news, if it is pumping, don't listen to people inside the group - search for reasons why something is pumping. If you can't find anything of value, there probably isn't anything, and you are gambling on emotional decisions.
The opportunity finds you, you don't find the opportunity. Getting rich off 'undervalued' coins, or finding a hidden gem is not easy. They are hidden for a reason. If someone is coming to you with this, remember they are selling. You are buying.
If someone does approach you, talk to someone else outside of the bubble - find another group e.g. CC, or other investors - talk to them, get outside perspective before investing.
look for examples of populist sentiment. Do you hear things about an other? - e.g. haters, those missing out who are jealous. Are you made to feel like you are part of a special group? The ones with insider information? This is a lie, it is very very common manipulation within populist movements, cults etc - to create a narrative of an other to entrench tribalism within the group. This is done to make you switch your brain off, to rule on emotion.
is there a recent comparable story that was successful? e.g. GME (yes this isn't the same at all in reality, but the story being sold is - or at least plays on the hype of GME). If there is, you are being played. The real opportunity, just like the hidden gem, is the first one. When people tell you this is happening again, they are simply using the positive news from one case and applying it to their own - often because it lacks any actual, real, tangible reason for succeeding or being a good investment.

I fell for a PnD, what next?

Have you sold yet - No? Are you in profit? Sell. Whilst you still can. Greed will tell you not to, and perhaps you can eek out a little more money. But you are gambling, and gambling extremely high risk against people trying to take all your money.

Yes, you have sold. Did you make a profit? Yes - great. You are still a an idiot, just a lucky one. Tell yourself that. There is a difference between opportunist traders taking advantage of PnDs and someone getting lucky and getting out before it collapses. Do not confuse the two. The first group know what they are doing (and they may still lose, but they are aware of the real risk). You are fucking lucky. Don't do it again. So count your blessings, go through the same process of learning about PnDs and begin to understand why you fell for it, how to avoid it in future and realise you are up - you won. Don't go back in, you are asking to lose.

Yes you have sold? Did you make profit? No? Ok, this is normal - 90% + of people doing this will end up in the same situation.

Recognise and accept your mistake. Do not feel ashamed of it, it is ok. You were played, it happens to all of us in our lives at some point.
Step away from whatever device you used to invest. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO WIN IT BACK RIGHT AWAY. You will most likely make things worse, investing again on emotions - even worse emotions now, shame, anger, disbelief.
Talk to the important people in your life if you feel comfortable, if not, come here or to other anonymous groups for support. It is important to share what happened, to vent emotionally whatever it is you feel.
Realise it is only money, even if gambled way more than you should have done, long term you will get out of this. Focus on other areas of your life for the time being - emotional investment, fulfilment and development - seek out things which may centre to your emotions again, whatever that may be - getting out in nature, cooking, reading, adrenaline sports - whatever the shit you need, do it.
Consider who, if anyone needs to know. Did you borrow from you and your wife's joint account? Accept a loan from a mate? These people need to know the truth. Do not hide it and hope to win it back. Tell the truth. They deserve it.
Do not repeat the same actions, if you want to win long term from this - you need a different approach. Step away from the high stakes casino and figure out long term strategies to make money.
Learn to diversify and manage risk. You are taking a huge gamble going all in on something - even if it isn't a scam, you need to protect yourself through diversifying your investments. Get rich quick schemes are the fastest way to lose money.
Educate yourself on these behaviours - I would recommend 'Thinking Fast and Slow' by Daniel Kahnemann as a personal favourite. This book helps to look at and address the biases that make up our emotional decision making, and learn how to recognise these and instead 'think slow'. You won't regret reading it.

Ark Big Ideas 2021: Read Through to SPACs

Ark has been a big name in SPACs, investing in general in 2020/2021, and followed closely on this subreddit. They have invested in SPACs including HIMS, OPEN, LGVW, and EXPC, which often saw an increase in trading price after Ark's involvement. Names such as SRAC and NPA also received a boost with the announcement of the Ark Space ETF. So it is helpful to understand what Ark is looking at when investing in SPACs.
Ark released their "Big Ideas 2021" presentation last week. The below goes through the high level industries and ideas Ark is looking at, as well as relevant SPACs to those industries/ideas. While these SPACs are not listed by Ark in the presentation, they are my summary of those that fit, and poised to benefit from, the themes Ark lays out.

Deep Learning: AI/Computer written software code
1. Key SPAC Names: SAII, ACEV, THBR
  1. Ark mention autonomous vehicles (among many other end markets). While this is focused more on software, SAII recently rumored to be in talks with Otonomo, an Israeli startup that operates a data platform linked to millions of connected cars.
  2. Ark also mention a jump in specialized chips in this section (don’t specifically say FPGAs [ACEV] or SOCs [THBR], but could be applicable).
2. SPAC names I wouldn't include, but related: GRAF/VLDR, GMHI/LAZR, IPV, CLA, CGRO, CFAC (rumored)
  1. While autonomous is mentioned, the focus is more on deep learning software and chips enabling it than the LiDAR players, so don’t include them here.
The Re-invention of the Data Center: Data centers shifting to new hardware, such as ARM, RISC-V, GPUs, TPUs, and FPGAs
1. Key SPAC Names: ACEV
  1. A lot of this section is about ARM processors. But, they specifically mention accelerators, including FPGAs, replacing CPUs. ACEV target Achronix is one of the few independent FPGA producers.
2. SPAC names I wouldn’t Include, but related: THBR
  1. FPGAs specifically mentioned, but no mention of SOCs or autonomous, so don’t think THBR as applicable here.
Virtual Worlds: Virtual reality, augmented reality, metaverse, and other futuristic steps in the design and monetization of video games
1. Key SPAC Names: FEAC/SKLZ
  1. Virtual Gaming: Around virtual worlds, Roblox IPO is a prime target, although this section talks about areas outside of just Vmetaverse. They talk about different methods of monetizing video games, which SKLZ (former FEAC SPAC) fits well with.
2. SPAC names I wouldn't include, but related: LCA/GNOG, DMYD, DMYT/RSI, DEAC/DKNG
  1. Online Gambling: While the online gambling players are technically “gaming”, this section seems more focused on video game monetization than gambling, so I don’t include them.
Digital Wallets: Online first financial accounts, banking, and lending platforms
1. Key SPAC Names: VIH, IPOE, FUSE (rumored), FTOC (rumored), NEBU/LPRO, FSRV, BFT
  1. VIH immediately comes to mind as the SPAC whose presentation talks specifically about digital wallets. But it appears that they are also talking about online-based banking services here, which can broaden potential targets to include IPOE/SoFi (only SPAC explicitly mentioned by Ark), the rumored FUSE/MoneyLion deal, the rumored Payonee FTOC merger
  2. They also mention digital lenders, which could include NEBU/LPRO or FSRV (don’t mention either, but mention FSRV partner AFFM)
2. SPAC names I wouldn't include, but related: FTAC/PAYA & SPRQ
  1. Fintech payment enabling fintech SPACs, but they aren’t really digital wallets/consumer focused.
Bitcoin: No explanation needed on this, they dedicated a section to the world's largest cryptocurrency
1. Key SPAC Names: VIH
  1. Digital Wallet: While crypto exchanges and other bitcoin-related names have been rumored to potentially be evaluating SPACs, VIH is the only crypto-related name currently in the SPAC universe
Electric Vehicles: An area well covered on this subreddit, EVs are another key sector pointed out by Ark.
1. Key SPAC Names: SHLL/HYLN, DPHC/RIDE, SPAQ/FSR, HCAC/GOEV, VTIQ/NKLA, ACTC, CIIC, NGA, FIII, GIK, PSAC, CCIV (rumor), KCAC/QS, PIC/XL, RMG/RMO, ALUS, CLII, TPGY, SBE, FVAC/MP, AMCI, THBR, ACEV
  1. EV OEMs: The major EV OEM SPACs are obvious candidates here, being SHLL/HYLN, DPHC/RIDE, SPAQ/FSR, HCAC/GOEV, VTIQ/NKLA, ACTC, CIIC, NGA, FIII, GIK, PSAC, CCIV (rumor)
  2. EV Parts: Parts suppliers, such as KCAC/QS, PIC/XL, RMG/RMO, and ALUS are also all poised to benefit from electrification
  3. EV Charging Stations: The EV Charging stations, such as CLII, TPGY, SBE, are all going to see great benefit from further EV adoption
  4. Raw Materials: FVAC/MP is also exposed to broader EV trends via NdPr output at the mine, which is currently used in 90% of EVs
  5. FCEV Parts: AMCI is acquiring a fuel cell provider, which are used for FCEVs and mentioned throughout their presentation
  6. Semiconductors: THBR’s semiconductors are being used for electrification, among other auto-based end markets. ACEV is similar, with their FPGAs being used for the future of the auto-market.
2. SPAC names I wouldn't include, but related: TRNE/DM
3. TRNE talks about how additive manufacturing enables EVs, among many other industries, although it’s not a key focus/driver.
Automation: Robotics factories, production, and manufacturing. Do not know of any SPACs in this area currently.
Autonomous Ride Hailing: Specifically looking at robo-taxis
1. Key SPAC Names: GRAF/VLDR, GMHI/LAZR, IPV, CLA, CGRO, CFAC (rumored), THBR, ACEV
  1. LiDAR: While Ark’s thesis is looking more at the platform providers, any autonomous driving will be enabled by the LiDAR providers GRAF/VLDR, GMHI/LAZR, IPV, CLA, CGRO, CFAC (rumored)
  2. Semiconductors: THBR is looking to produce semi’s for “safety systems” for future vehicles (autonomous). ACEV is similarly looking to use their FPGAs for the future of cars.
2. SPAC names I wouldn't include, but related: SHLL/HYLN, DPHC/RIDE, SPAQ/FSR, HCAC/GOEV, VTIQ/NKLA, ACTC, CIIC, NGA, FIII, GIK, PSAC, CCIV (rumor)
3. EV OEMs: While it’s possible the major EV OEMs could have autonomous vehicles, and some even mention this, it is not as key to their investment thesis as the electrification side
Drone Delivery: Autonomous air travel, mostly for ecommerce delivery and passengers
1. Key SPAC Names: Haven’t seen any SPACS that really relate to this theme
2. SPAC names I wouldn't include, but related: EXPC, ASPL (rumor), ZNTE (rumor)
  1. The Ark presentation seems to mostly be mentioning eCommerce-type fulfilment, although there is some discussion of autonomous passenger deliver
Orbital Aerospace: Space-related names including connectivity and hypersonic point-to-point travel
Key SPAC Names: SRAC, IPOA/SPCE, NPA
1. Satellite Launch/Positioning: SRAC is likely the most relevant, as it specializes in putting satellites into their proper orbit.
2. Space-based Connetivity: NPA also helps enable space-based communication, which Ark mentions.
3. Hypersonic Point-to-Point: And finally, Ark mentions hypersonic point-to-point travel, which IPOA/SPCE is looking to get involved in
3D Printing: Another straight forward one, Ark thinks additive manufacturing will revolutionize manufacturing
Key SPAC Names: TRNE/DM
1. 3D Printing: DM is a 3D printer, this one is clearly the most applicable
Long Read Sequencing: DNA sequencing (think ILMN), the next step is those who can perform longer "reads" of DNA (PACB, Oxford Nanopore). I have not seen any SPACs targeting this area.
Multi-Cancer Screening: Looking at liquid biopsies/blood tests for early cancer detection.
Key SPAC Names: CNAC/DMTK
SPAC names I wouldn't include, but related: VGAC
1. Genetic Testing: VGAC is rumored to be in discussions with 23andMe. Their current product is mostly around ancestry testing, but they also are looking to do health screening per the Bloomberg article. Still, Ark is focused mostly on cancer testing, and there is no evidence they are specializing in cancer screening.
Cell & Gene Therapy Generation 2: Self-explanatory, cell and gene therapies, Ark looks at the next stage shifting from liquid to solid tumors, autologous (cells from yourself) to allogeneic (cells from anybody) cell therapy, and ex vivo to in vivo gene editing.
Key SPAC Names: GXGX
1. Allogenic Gene Therapy: Ark specifically talks about allogenic therapies, of which GXGX is acquiring one.

None of the above is supposed to be investment advice, a recommendation to buy, or suggest Ark is or will be involved at all in any of the above names. Do your own due diligence.
I and others I advise own positions in some of the above securities

Edit: Added BFT to "Digital Wallets" and CNAC/DMTK to "Multi-Cancer Screening"

My 8 investing guidelines.

I've been investing, trading, gambling for about 5 years now and I've done pretty much every rookie mistake there is. Sold winners from 2016 (Shop,Nvidia,AMD,Paypal) Lost fortunes on chasing that pennystock. Played and lost with trying to time the market, option trading.

I've been very active during these years reading and learning and you be surprised how often people get sucked in to the same stuff you self did once.
These are 8 guidelines that really helps me and that I've learn to appreciate over the years.

1.Don't FOMO
Yes we all heard it. You know that feeling when people are posting crazy gains on these new stocks, we all saw the EV hype. It's so so easy to get sucked in to thinking, if I just put in some money right now I can get 10-20-50% gains in a few days! It's already up 200% this month, surely it will keep going!?
This takes some real patience to keep your head cool and realize it could very well be overbought and the downside risk is just a lot higher than potential.

I've seen several sector hypes. We all remember the crypto bubble, the weed bubble and now lately the EV bubble. They all come and go and the more of these you been in from the start the easier it is to realize what's going on.

2. Cut your losers and let your winners run
Buying the dip is great when the market is down but if the fundamentals of the business is bad then usually this will just result in greater loss. On the flipside, if you have a few great picks and nothing fundamentally has changed and it keeps moving in the right direction then don't be afarid to keep adding.

3. When the overall market is down, you buy
No one can predict the market, don't waste time on it. When the overall market is down your stock is literally on sale. Usually every sector is down when the market is down, your stock and business has not changed one bit however, it's just a lower price now.

4. Don't be afraid of corrections.
Yeah it sucks seeing your portfolio down 20-30-40% but realize that stocks always go up, they seriously always do. Just keep your head down, keep buying and play that long game.
5. Small amounts can turn into big profits down the line
When you get really into investing you seriously start rethinking your life. That new OLED 77 inch? Only 2k right? What do you think that 2000 could be in 10 years? You just want to put every damn penny you got in the stock market because compounding interests are just too good to pass up. So just rethink if really need that new thing now or if it could wait.
6. If the company keeps growing, why sell?
Taking profit is good however not always the best thing to do. If the stock you have keeps growing and keeps crushing earnings. Why should you sell? Why just not keep it for years, it sure can be tempting but are you sure that money could be spent better elsewhere when it's easily growing in your winning stock.

7, Never regret that you didn't buy more
We all been here. Why the hell didn't I buy more of Amazon? Why didn't I just put my whole paycheck in this stock!?
You can never do this. It won't lead to anything, you can't fix it and you honestly did the best decisions at the time with the information you had. Realize that at the time this was the best decision, ofcourse hindsight it looks like you could have done a better decision.

8. Don't sell and buy in again to time a correction
This is very hard and with the momentum some growth stocks have these days you might just end up loosing more of that profit even if there is a slight correction. Just keep the money in and stop worrying.

The Mods of WSB & A Coordinated AMC Pump

Going to be editing this with info as I come across it. Please DM me if you have anything to add. Many of you have reached out and I've complied a lot of evidence. I realize now that these pumps originated in Discord groups, but this is something I am still actively looking into and won't be including here.
Users of wallstreetbets (and also places like Stockwits, amcstock, and Youtube chats) attempted a coordinated pump on AMC (& GME) today, Feb. 3rd. These comments are still avaible. The fact they are still up and that I found them very easily means that the mods are not able to moderate their community well enough to stop coordinated pumps. There is not evidence that shows the mods were in on coordinated pump, but the fact that they were unable to stop it taking place shows that the subreddit has grown far too big to be managed by a team of 35 mods.
There is evidence that some mods owned both AMC and GME, and it is possible they held these shares while the coordinated pump was happening in threads they were supposed to be moderating (proof of GME ownership at the bottom).
Coldcutcombo69 was mod on WSB during the AMC coordinated pump. Here is them claiming that they were a mod on WSB. This image of mods before and after the day of the pump confirms they were a mod during the AMC pump-and-dump.
Coldcutcombo69 posted a picture of them having a sell order on their AMC stock that never hit, making it possible they owned AMC shares during the coordinated pump.
Coldcutcombo69 also posted some kind of DD thread about AMC two days ago, promoting the stock here. The content of this post has been removed. This post promoting AMC was made while Coldcutcombo69 was a moderator.
Coldbutcombo69 was a moderator during the AMC coordinated pump. They are no longer a moderator as of the time of this post, only a few hours later. They confirmed this here. A WSB mod was posting comments and threads promoting AMC while possibly still holding AMC shares, and a pump-and-dump occurred in the daily threads that they (along with others) were supposed to be moderating.
turdled is currently a WSB mod. They said, "We don't comment or promote trades. That's up to the subscribers and their upvotes/downvotes to decide." View it here.
turdled's claim was false. Coldcutcombo69 had been a moderator for 25 days. During that time they posted comments and threads promoting AMC, while providing evidence that they actually owned AMC shares. A moderator (who may command more respect in a community of 8.5 million people) promoting a stock is wrong, and the mods clearly believe that is the case since they said they don't do it. But at least one of them did. It could be that Coldcutcombo69 was removed because they were promoting AMC, but they had been doing this for days and were only removed a few hours ago.
ZJZ (a well known moderator) posted this today and was removed as a mod. The head mods also removed more mods, cutting the number of mods from from 62 mods to 37. Coldbutcombo69 was cut from the mod team at this time. It seems very suspicious to me that the head mods removed a bunch of mods from their positions after the events of today, especially because one of those ex-mods had been promoting AMC so much while being a mod.
Note: there is some kind of extended purge happening within the mod team right now. The mod team started at 62, then was cut with ZJZ to 37, then 36, now it's down to 35. EDIT: Two new mods have been added, bringing the count back up to 37. One of them tried posting something in a WSB thread, but their comment was deleted by the auto-mod because they have never posted in WSB before. Here is some proof of what's going on there.
ZJZ has exposed that there are bad actors on the mod team, using their power on the sub to try and make cash off movie deals and crypto scams. This at least adds weight to the points im raising in this thread.
EDIT: There was a thread on WSB by a moderator trying to explain what happened with the mod team. You can see that thread here. There is a lot of push back in the thread. The mod's claim is that the profit from the movie deal would have been given to charity. This may not be true, as Discord logs show another mod asking what their profit will be from the movie deal, asking "What's our cut.". Infighting with the mods seems to be a continued issue with a mod changing the subreddit description from the classic "like 4chan found a bloomberg terminal" to this. This change was instantly reverted.
MOD UPDATE 2/4: It seems that the moderator team has changed again. 23 mods now remain. OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR is now listed as the most senior mod, and they have allowed this thread to stay up. The mod reports that the Reddit admins have stepped in.
Statement from Reddit admins, according to OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR: "After reviewing this situation based on input from both current and past moderators, we have decided to remove several moderators at the top of the list that were creating instability in the community." Source.
NEW INFO: I've also been sent a good amount of evidence from multiple people indicating these types or coordinating buying and selling schemes were happening on places like Youtube, Twitch, and Discord. All of these groups seem to be composed of WSB/WSB spinoffs users. These users would spam hash tags, spam and raid Twitch channels, and coordinate these social media pushes with timed buying and selling of GME/AMC/BB/NOK. It is possible (and looks likely to me) that the timed pumps you see below were organized by a Discord group. I have collected a lot of evidence on this front, but this evidence of the real organizers of the pump is something I might have to pass along to someone who is more experienced at dealing with this stuff.
The AMC Pump
Here is evidence of the coordinated pump by users on WSB. The coordinated pump effort occurred in the daily thread, but also spilled out into some posts. Note: I have yet to see any comments/posts that moderators made showing them participating in the coordinated pump effort. It is not known if they knew about these comments or not.
"AMC 1 pm LET FUCKING GO" - WildPhoenix55 58 upvotes. Posted around 12:00 PM CST. Not removed as of 8:40 PM CST.
"AMC 2 DA MOON @ 1PM EST" - OutlandishnessOk4137 Posted around 12:00 PM CST. Not removed as of 8:40 PM CST.
"watching that 1pm movie"
At 1 PM, we’re going to the Moon! Get ready! 🚀 🚀 🚀Discussion *Note that this thread was 6 days ago. Still strange that it was not taken down
Comments in this thread talking about 1 PM pump
EVIDENCE THE 1 PM PUMP WORKED: 1 PM seems to be the main time that was set. You can actually see the coordinated pump spike the price of AMC up to $9.70 right after 1 PM. You can also see the massive amount of volume increase during that time as well. Volume between 1:00-1:05 shot up to 8,725,700. This was the highest volume for a 5 min period all day. Check it out here.
It was also reported to me that some users received DM's about the pump. If you are reading this and received any kind of DM like this, please message me. After seeing the first pump work successfully, they tried it again 1 hour later. Here are a swarm of comments made coordinating the pump for 2 PM.
"2 shares at 2 pm AMC!!" EDIT: This account has been deleted. You can view a picture of this post here.
"Everyone buy 2 shares of AMC and 2pm let’s rush these heggies 💎💎💎💎🚀🚀🚀" "AMC at 2 !!!!" "2 AMC shares @2pm rush" "AMC at 2. Let’s give them some payback🚀" "do i buy now or at 2" "Buy AMC at 2pm Eastern, 11am Pacific. 2pm is when it’s happening."
The 2PM coordinated pump was not as successful. It could be that some users were confused with the time differences. Either way, there was still a marked increase of volume during the 5 min period of 2:00-2:05 which also resulted in the stock re-testing its daily high. Check it out here.
You can actually watch a Youtuber Trey's Trades see the pump at 2 PM in action. He is reading comments on a WSB spin-off subreddit amcstock. You can see people spamming chat for people to buy at 2 PM. Here is the video. The fact that this guy's stream chat is filled with a pump-and-dump scheme and he did nothing about it is pretty telling.
I've backed up the comments and info here. If you find anything else suspicious about this, please DM me. I want to make it clear that there isn't evidence that the mods participated in the pump. But the pump-and-dump (which is illegal) happened under the watch of the mod team. They may have tried to stop it, but 8.5 million people is a lot. If they didn't think they could keep the place running without illegal things happening in the comment sections, they should have set the sub to private and put in proper pre-cautions first.
EDIT: This pump also occurred for GME and users in the GME thread were able to comment about it. None of these comments are removed and they exist in very large numbers. They are mostly heavily downvoted, but the fact they are able to stay up means the mods failed at their job.
Comment 1 Comment 2 Comment 3 Comment 4 Comment 5 Comment 6 Comment 7 Comment 8 Comment 9 Comment 10 Comment 11
The volume spikes do show an uptick in volume around 1PM and around 2PM, but they are not as strong as the AMC boost in volume. The volume during these times were high, but they weren't the highest points in the day for GME.
EDIT: I want to make it clear to people who are saying "those are just bot accounts." Bots are still controlled by humans. If bot spam cannot be caught and deleted, that means 8.5 million people are exposed to pump-and-dump schemes run by bots. It does not reflect any better on the mods if the comments are made by humans or made by bots controlled by humans. It is now a day later, and still none of the comments have been removed by a moderator or moderator bot.
UPDATE: Wall Street Bets has completely removed any post talking about ZJZ and his post about the head mods trying to engage in crypto scams and strange movie deals. (EDIT: This has changed, see above.) The rising sections is now completely filled low-effort, small text posts that are only pushing $GME. Here are those threads. Low-effort threads like these are explicitly against WSB rules. Why are mods letting rule-breaking, ticker spamming posts stay up?
Example 1 Example 2 Example 3 Example 4 Example 5 Example 6
WSB mods are banning users for mentioning ZJZ and his post. (EDIT: This has changed, see above.)
Mods Removing Negative GME Posts
I started digging into this when I posted to Wall Street Bets with a post containing some information about GME. The post pushed back against some of the "GME revolutiuon" talking points. It was a pretty tame post, meet all the guidelines for posting, and contained enough content to warrant staying up. The post was removed by the mods, but you can still see it up here. The content of the post was a combo of these two comments I made. This comment here and this comment here. Somebody in the comments recommended I make the contents of the comment into a separate post- which I did until it was removed.
The moderators removed this post, the removal states: "Moderators remove posts from feeds for a variety of reasons, including keeping communities safe, civil, and true to their purpose."
I sent a DM to the mods asking why exactly the post was removed. I have not been given a reply. Does the content of the post I made (pt.1 / pt.2) break any of their rules? Why would the mods remove a post containing that info?
Even worse, the exact contents of the post I made exist in comment form and are still up. If the info somehow breaks their rules, why leave it up in the comment section? Why haven't they removed the comments that contain the EXACT wording I used in my post?
It seems very strange to me that a post I made that contained some research to counter act the "GME Revolution" narrative would be singled out removal for "keeping communities safe, civil, and true to their purpose."
The front-page of Wall Street Bets is FILLED will positive memes and DD that supports GME. There is not a single negative post about GME on the entire front page that I can find. Why not leave up some negative DD and let the community downvote/upvote it?
The mods will let the comment section of threads get filled up with misinformation (GME SI being 226% is a common one that is easily debunked, yet is posted every 5 min in daily threads). People are gambling their life savings on outdated information yet when I make a post to push back against some of the common GME arguments, it gets removed.
Mods removing negative GME posts is unethical because WSB mods own GME shares.
jamsi is a mod on WSB. They left this comment: "I just received this e-mail from Robinhood. I am no longer using Robinhood for any of my purchases. Only keeping my $GME - not selling." Here is the comment.
Swedish_Chef_Bork_x3 is a mod on WSB. They left this comment: "Another $2k locked and loaded to buy in tomorrow. Feels like fucking Helm’s Deep in here. I have tomorrow off work, gonna get drunk and hope I don’t sleep through my alarm.". Here is the comment.
rawbdor is listed as a mod under the Moderators section of Wall Street Bets. rawbdor posted a comment saying: "The price is going to plummet hard no matter what we do. The real question is, will they be able to steal our shares in the process. They can drop the price all they want on low volume. But they'll never be able to buy it back unless you sell it to them."
A link to that comment is here.
This comment makes it pretty obvious that rawbdor owns some shares in GME, right? Saying things like our shares implies they own some.
ITradeBaconFutures is also listed as a mod. They made it clear that "Mods did not trade GME". You can find that comment here.
turdled is listed as a mod. They said, "We don't comment or promote trades. That's up to the subscribers and their upvotes/downvotes to decide." View it here.
One mod claims that mods don't trade GME, when its obvious from the three examples above that they did. Another says they don't comment or promote trades, which is also a lie. Other mods have been doing that. They also "promote" trades when they remove content that argues the other side of GME. If the only content they allow on the front-page is GME Positive content, they are promoting that content.
WSB has a mod team of 35 accounts moderating 8.5 million people. CNBC gets about 200k viewers at peak hours, while WSB has almost a million viewing it at a time when the market is open.
The mods could simply send me a DM and explain why my post was removed. They haven't. Market manipulation is bad. It's bad when investment firms do it and its bad when retail investors do it. The mods could DM me right now and say "Hey, here is the reason the post was removed." They haven't. If they do send me a DM, I will post an update here.
TL;DR
Now-former WSB mod ZJZ, in a removed & locked post, accused dormant top mods of coming back to siphon media coverage, potential movie rights, and springboard a cryptocurrency, while suppressing other mods
Coldcutcombo69, a moderator on WSB, was posting comments and threads promoting AMC. A coordinated AMC pump happened in the daily threads and comments that this moderator (and others) were tasked with moderating. This mod was removed as a moderator after this thread was posted. Coldcutcombo69 held AMC stock before the pump, but it is unclear if they held or sold that stock around or after the time of the coordinated pump.
Today, several users, but no mods, in a discussion thread attempted to push buys of AMC at 1 & 2 PM EST. Those times would later coincide with high volumes of stock trades for the day. Similar coordination was attempted by users (no mods) for GME.
WSB's front page is filled with only positive coverage of GME (here's a snapshot), while they removed my post containing negative GME DD with no legitimate reason given.
Mods are holding GME contradicting another high level mod's comment that "mods did not trade $GME". Mods made a false statement that they don't promote stocks, as one of them clearly did. You can also see the other mods comments about GME as also promoting stock.
Tervia's comment here has good info on Reddit moderation.

Why Dogecoin to $1 is Only a Matter of Time

Why Dogecoin to $1 is Only a Matter of Time

The Bubble
It’s February of 2021, and let’s be completely honest: We’re in a bubble. It’s kind of like 1999 but not the same. In 1999, interest rates were much higher. Today, they are nearly zero. In some countries, they are even negative. From a long-term perspective, this is very bad.
The Federal Reserve is completely to blame for this. Their policies are entirely reckless, and officials refuse to acknowledge what is going on here. The Coronavirus hysteria caused by the media and enabled by officials made the crash last summer the worst man-made disaster in the history of our financial system. The Great Depression was caused by over-speculation and a lack of regulation in an emerging financial system. The Great Recession was caused by greed and fraud (strangely, no one is in jail for this). This market collapse was caused by elected officials and the fed, who got trigger-happy and cut rates to zero back in the spring of 2020.
Whatever we wind up calling the burst of this bubble is to be determined. It will, however, be entirely manmade because the fed refuses to acknowledge the speculative behavior currently going on in SPACs, Cryptos, Penny Stocks, and anything else that serves as a legal Ponzi scheme for inflating the bubble. Even real, dividend-paying stocks have gotten way overvalued in some sectors. Also, since the fed has no plans of raising rates within the next two years (so they say for now, at least), if you’re searching for yield, you have nowhere else to look than the equities markets or one of these legalized forms of Ponzi schemes. It’s extremely unfair to conservative or retired investors looking for an honest return on their savings. This all is actually why it is a great time to look at Dogecoin, as I will get to in a moment. So long as rates are near zero, the bubble will continue to go on for longer and longer. And while it continues, people will constantly look for the next big thing.
For How Long?
Now, this may sound all doom and gloom, but that’s not my point. One day the bubble will burst, but I’m not making a prediction of when that will happen. Anyone making up dates for when the bubble will burst is either clueless or a con artist. No one knows when this bubble will burst. It could be weeks, months, or even years. One thing is for sure, the bubble will not burst just because things are overvalued. That’s not how bubbles work.
There needs to be a catalyst to burst the bubble. A major military conflict. An unexpected move or comment by the fed (raising rates, calling out the bubble for what it is, etc.). Another nationwide lockdown. I can go on with examples, but a little selloff here and there (August 2020) that causes the financial media to lose its mind is not enough. Just because you claim the bubble is bursting isn’t enough either. If you follow the media, you will get burned over and over again. That’s how it works. They want you to go to their sponsors for help, and once they burn you (sell you gold, overcharge you for poor investments, etc), you’ll come back to them hoping to figure things out. It’s a shell game. When the bubble burst, it will happen extremely fast and unexpectedly. There’s nothing wrong with playing the bubble, but you need to be mindful of when it ends because once the music stops, there will be a mad rush for the exits. You don’t want to be stuck holding the bag because everything will get crushed when the bubble burst. Even the blue-chip stocks that pay solid dividends will get hammered.
Fundamentals Don’t Matter (For Now)
In this bubble environment, fundamentals don’t make sense and, quite frankly, they don’t matter. You can argue back and forth all day long about whether something has a practical future or whether something is overvalued. I’m not here to do that about Dogecoin, Bitcoin, or any other crypto. The same could be said about Penny Stocks right now. (Hint: virtually all of these companies are way overvalued). You can find tons of articles of that nature, and I’m not likely to change your preconceived notions anyway. If we look at all the irrational bubbles that have occurred lately, you are a complete fool if you believe that TSLA or BTC is worth nearly a trillion dollars. It’s worth nowhere near that valuation.
How do I determine what something is worth, and who do I mean? It is called the market cap. In layman’s terms, that is where you take all the stock shares and multiply it by the share price. And I’m not recommending buying or selling TSLA or BTC, I’m just pointing out that these valuations are absurd. Does that mean they will not pass 1 trillion dollars? Of course not. There’s a very reasonable chance they do pass a $1 trillion market cap. That sounds absurd to write but it’s true. When the bubble bursts, you better believe fundamentals will be back in play. This disconnect can’t last forever. But it can go on for a while. And while it lasts, we all want to make some money
A Quick Word About ALL Cryptos
While I don’t believe Cryptocurrencies are going anywhere (as in, people will always buy and sell them), I also do not see any APPLICABLE future in them other than trading with other people. In fact, the biggest use I see of Cryptocurrencies is for illegal and untraceable transactions. The government will do all they can over the next several years to bring in lost tax revenue and track transactions better, but that’s the extent to which Cryptos will have relevance. How do I know this? Because the federal reserve, which is backed by the taxing authority of the US Government and the might of the US military, isn’t about to let some alternative currency usurp the US dollar. How do you think we can afford to provide all this government stimulus to fight Covid? If you think about this, you will see why other countries are much worse off. They must play by our rules, while we get to export our inflation to other countries because they must use the USD to buy commodities on the international exchanges (look at what happened when Saddam tried to circumvent this). If they print more money, their currency gets devalued. That’s why as bad as things look, relatively speaking, the US isn’t in terrible shape compared to the rest of the world.
If your financial future is so married to Bitcoin, ask yourself this: what happens if your account gets hacked? Who will you call? Who will make you whole again? If you have a brokerage account with legitimate stocks, there are regulations in place. There is the SIPC which protects again brokerage failure. With Bitcoin, you are completely gambling. This lack of regulation and lack of price stability means that there is no viable path to Bitcoin being a legitimate currency. Does it mean people can buy and sell it? Of course. But if you are in the cult of believing that Bitcoin is the future world reserve currency, you need to get your head examined.
Gold and Silver con artists have been trying for decades for people to get on this alternative currency train. At least gold and silver have some practical industrial applications. And hundreds of years of history on its side. Crypto isn’t anything but something people agree upon as having value. Why do I point this out? Because the one thing you need to do is separate yourself from what you think you know about Crypto and Blockchain, etc. While it all sounds cool and revolutionary, it really doesn’t matter. The US government could easily create their own form of Crypto that gives them more control. The decentralized part just doesn’t jive with our current global hegemony. If you don’t understand this, you should think more and read less. Once you accept this, you can start to see all Crypto as fundamentally worth the same: virtually nothing. The technicals, however, are why we want to look at Dogecoin.
Relative Valuation of Dogecoin
Now that you understand a little more background into where we are, I believe Dogecoin is extremely undervalued. Why? It’s simple. Relative valuation. This is one of the easiest and most efficient ways to compare investments. Ok, so maybe this isn’t really investing anymore; it’s gambling. Still, we can apply the same concept. Imagine two companies: they are in the same industry and have similar margins, earnings, growth prospects, etc. One company is valued at $50 billion and costs $120 per share, and one is valued at $85 billion and costs $80 per share. Which one would you invest in? Of course, you would invest in the one that is worth $50 billion at $120 per share. The cost per share means absolutely nothing. It is psychological.
Now, you say Dogecoin isn’t on par with Bitcoin and that where I’m going with this isn’t a fair comparison. Go back and read the last section. That’s why I wrote about the practical applications of Cryptocurrencies in general. None of that matters. The only thing that matters is the general sentiments shared by people that buy and believe in Cryptocurrency. So, let’s look at the current valuations:
Bitcoin – Price $40,500, Market Cap $755B (estimated as of 2-6-21)
Dogecoin – Price $.05, Market Cap $4.4B (estimated as of 2-6-21)
(Source: Yahoo Finance)
Now, I’m not saying Dogecoin is worth what Bitcoin is. I’m not even saying it's worth half or a third of Bitcoin. Who really knows? No one does. You certainly cannot say for certain that one is better than another. One is more “established” and has more name recognition. What I am saying is this: if Dogecoin goes to $1, it will have a market cap of just over $85 billion. Even at Bitcoin’s current market cap, that’s just over 1/10 of its value. And that isn’t even pricing in more appreciation of Bitcoin’s value over time. This means I see tons of room for Dogecoin to run. (I know some will mention dilution via minting of new coins, but that’s another discussion and not entirely relevant to the points I am trying to make in this piece.)
Could Dogecoin match Bitcoin? That sounds absurd, but let’s look just for fun: if Dogecoin were to have the same market cap as Bitcoin, that means it would have a current price of $8.55. So, what am I saying here? You must know the range of possibilities (within reason, if that even exists anymore) before you start thinking about price targets. To say Dogecoin is going to $100 is just absurd; things need to be put in the proper context.
Why Dogecoin?
Using relative valuation, I believe you could make a case for any Crypto. Will they all run to Bitcoin’s level? Of course not. The last question is why Dogecoin? This is the most important one that we have to answer before deciding on buying Dogecoin. The answer is simple: hype and name recognition. If I look at the most valuable cryptocurrencies by market cap, Dogecoin is number 12. I have taken an informal survey of probably 100 people over the last two weeks. I showed them the top 15 Cryptocurrencies by market cap to see which they were familiar with: Stellar, Binance Coin, Cardano, Polkadot, XRP . . . almost all of these were completely unheard of. But, somehow, they have valuations of 2-3 times Dogecoin.
Dogecoin has a few things going for it. First, hype. Elon Musk and many other prominent celebrities are pilling in. Mark Cuban has said he’d buy it over a lottery ticket. That alone can help aid a very quick lift off. Second, the name Dogecoin is very easy to remember and a trendy thing. What the heck is Cardano anyway? XRP? I mistakenly called it XPR before I edited this piece. And if you are still hung up on the practical use of Dogecoin or other Cryptos, you are missing the point of this piece entirely. Look at the story behind Bitcoin. An anonymous person online created a decentralized platform for money movement or something like that. What? How in the world did that idea ever take traction? It’s just like people online arguing over which Penny Stock is the next big thing. Neither person is right, but the perception is really all that matters.
Third, stimulus checks will be hitting within weeks or months. This naturally promotes price inflation when people have more dollars chasing few goods. People will inevitably pile into whatever they think is the next great thing. Dogecoin has momentum right now. And this brings me to number four.
Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, FOMO is very powerful right now. There are people all over the world that know people who have won big money in this bubble. Penny stocks, GameStop, Bitcoin, and many others that you can name. How many people do you personally know that have won big in the lottery? Probably none. This is a unique time in history. People have won big in this market and are looking for the next thing.
Dogecoin is something that could pick up steam quickly. It could blow up overnight. It may not, and that is the risk you take. At the end of the day, it’s just money that you can always make more of. Life-changing money is worth the risk when you find the right risk-reward ratio.
Do your due diligence, but also think ahead to a scenario that you could imagine. Would you be that surprised if Dogecoin reached $1? And if it did, would you be surprised if it started running towards multiple dollars? $1 is a psychological number that typically leads to a further breakout. The current market cap suggests this is all very possible. Now imagine getting in at four or five cents.
Disclosure: Long Dogecoin with Diamond Hands. No positions in any other things mentioned. -BJ

DDDD - How r/wallstreetbets Created a Financial Weapon of Mass Destruction

Inspired by the recent events in wallstreetbets causing $GME, $BB, and $BBRY, among other historically highly shorted stocks to surge just to spite some rich people in wall street, I've decided to come out of retirement from wallstreetbets and publish a new edition of DDDD (Data-Driven DD) covering the exact mechanics that made this possible. I’ll also introduce those of you that are unfamiliar how wallstreetbet’s favorite gambling device, stock options, actually work and how they can be used by this subreddit as a weapon of mass destruction against hedge funds like Melvin - all dumbed down to a fifth grade reading level so that the average person in this subreddit will mostly understand what I’m talking about.
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.

Shorting

How It Works
Most traditional (i.e. boomer) investors usually try to make money by going long - i.e. “buy low and sell high”; this is when you buy a stock thinking it will go up in the future (bullish). Shorting is the opposite of this, you “sell high and buy low”, thinking the stock will go down in the future (bearish). This is usually done through the broker, where the prospective short seller would “borrow” the shares from them, and they would need to pay back these shares in some future date by “covering their shorts” - or buying back the exact same quantity of shares they owe the broker.
For example, imagine that there were only 10 Surprised Pikachu Pokemon cards in the world. Because nobody wants to deal with taking physical possession of these cards and risk losing their Pokemon card in their laundry or something, everyone pays a Pokemon card dealer a small fee to store it for them. Through their dealer, you can buy and sell these Pokemon cards as well. A 🌈🐻 realizes that maybe Pokemon cards are dumb and borrows 2 Surprised Pikachu cards (who has a prearranged agreement with some institutional Pokemon card hoarder to loan them out for interest) and sell them for $420 each, thinking that they're actually work $100 at most, and plans to buy the Pokemon cards back at that price to repay his Pokemon card loan (i.e. covering their shorts) - this is a short sale. Since no one actually wants to physically hold these Pokemon cards, these cards physically stay with the dealer who could then lend out these exact same Pokemon card if the buyer also has an agreement to allow them to do so. This means that you can actually have people owing more than the total number of Surprised Pikachu Pokemon cards in existence (i.e. short interest > 100%).
Replace “Surprised Pikachu Pokemon card” with stocks and “Pokemon card dealer” with “broker” and you have a short sale of shares. Interestingly enough, this also applies 80% to how banks work as well.
Short Squeezes
So when does a short seller need to cover their shorts? Well, either when a) The short seller wants to, either to take profit or to stop a loss, b) Their broker forces them to through a margin call, or c) The broker forces them to as the broker has recalled their loan, usually for a hard to borrow stock - they get “bought in”. Today, we’ll focus on C) because this is how short squeezes happen.
So, what does a broker recalling their loan mean? Well, to go back to the Pokemon card example, imagine that the dealer only has 6 Surprised Pikachu Pokemon cards that he’s legally allowed to loan out. Some more 🌈🐻 short sells all the 6 remaining Pokemon cards until the dealer has no more available on hand. So what happens when someone wants to buy a Surprised Pikachu Pokemon Card and doesn’t want the dealer to lend out their cards? He’ll have to force one of those 🌈🐻 to buy back the card that they owe them so the dealer can give it to the prospective buyer. But who can the 🌈🐻 buy back the card from? The dealer. But the dealer doesn’t have any cards to sell, so they need to force another 🌈🐻 to cover so that the former 🌈🐻 can cover their shorts. This vicious cycle repeats and leads towards a sudden surge in demand for Surprised Pikachu Pokemon cards and a spike in prices for it - a short squeeze.
The Institutional Factor
One thing alluded above was that shares can only be borrowed from *some* share holders, but not all. So who exactly can and does a broker typically borrow these shares from? These are usually margin accounts of either institutional and sometimes (although much less frequently) retail investors. Usually, when an entity signs a margin agreement, which allows them to borrow either cash or shares from the broker, they give permission to the broker to also lend out their shares in the process, and thereby also give up their voting rights - in case you’ve ever wondered who actually the share *actually* belonged to in shareholders meetings. Since almost every institution except Warren Buffet uses margin to a certain extent, and not that many retail investors do, especially given that retirement accounts are forbidden to use margin, and it’s much easier to “find” one big source of TSLA shares from one big institution with a margin account rather than find thousands of smaller margin retail accounts who hold TSLA shares, so most of the time, these shares are being borrowed from an institution (i.e. pension fund, hedge fund). This means that shares that are almost disproportionately held by retail investors are much harder to short because they’re harder to borrow from the broker, and retail-heavy stocks like HTZ, GME, NIO, and NKLA, which virtually no institutions actually hold, will demand high interest rates when shorting and the sellers can much more easily be forced to cover during a short squeeze.

Stock Options

What are Stock Options
A stock option is a contract between the writer and whoever holds it that gives the option holder the right to buy (call option) or sell (put option) 100 shares of the underlying stock on or before the expiry date at a specified strike price. So for example, buying a GME 1/29 $1000c gives whoever the holder of this contract is the option to buy from the writer of this contract 100 shares of GME at $1000 / share on or before 1/29. Obviously if GME is lower than $1000 before that date, the holder would be an idiot to exercise this option to buy GME shares for more than their current market value, so they expire worthless.
This effectively provides the option holder an immense amount of leverage, and provides the opportunity for them to 10x or even 100x their original investment if the underlying asset moves the right way - for example because a subreddit declares war on a hedge fund and pumps up a stock to make them go bankrupt, while limiting their losses to the cost of the option. The option writer will in return receive a premium for the option, potentially risking an infinite amount of money, but with a high likelihood of making a small profit. These writers would either be

Theta gang - who are looking to generate a tidy income source from those option premiums and pray that the stock doesn’t move in the wrong direction too much
A market maker - who writes the contract when they see an arbitrage opportunity between the market value of an option and the theoretical value of it, and hedging their contract they wrote by buying / shorting the underlying assets so they effectively don’t actually take a position in the market.

We’ll go over how 2) works and how this mechanism can be used as a financial nuclear bomb, but first you need to learn some greek.
The Greeks
The greeks in finance is a set of factors that can affect the price of a stock option / group of options
Delta - Change of the option price as the stock price changes
Gamma - Change in Delta as the stock price changes
Vega - Change in the option price as volatility of the stock changes
Theta - The decay in the option price as the expiration date gets nearer
Rho - Change of the option price as the interest rate changes; Most people ignore this
Looking at the greeks of the gambling tickets you buy is very useful to analyzing the ways you can make or lose money on them. Think TSLA will go up a modest amount? Buy a high-Delta call. Think GME is going to 🚀🚀🚀 1000% more? Look for a high Gamma call so your Delta gains accelerate as GME 🚀🌕. Do you feel like a vampire and want to have a steady income source from degenerate wallstreetbet gamblers on a stock you think will go flat (relative to historical volatility) over the next few months? Join theta gang and sell a high-Theta and high-Vega option!
Market Makers
The Black-Scholes model is a fancy mathematical model that describes a “perfect price” (a lot of caveats here) for a stock option. This is done by showing how every option written can theoretically be perfectly hedged by a series of purchases or short sells on the underlying stock. This means that theoretically, if there is a large gap between the theoretical price from Black Scholes and the actual price for an option, there is an “arbitrage” opportunity - this is where market makers come in.
Market makers are companies that provide liquidity to a market by offering to be counterparty to trades. This is especially useful in stock options, where a single ticker can have thousands of options, and there might be someone who wants to buy a GME 1/29 $1000c but no one is actually actively selling it. However, this option might be listed anyways and Citadel will sell you the call if anyone tries to buy it and then immediately hedge it. In fact, when you buy an option chances are you’re not actually buying it from its previous owner selling an option they already own, but from a market maker like Citadel (who is responsible for over 99% of all options volume in 3000 stocks).
So what happens when someone buys an option from a market maker? Since the market maker typically can’t (and probably don’t want to) take a position, meaning taking a directional bet if a stock goes up or down, they’ll immediately hedge the option they just conjured out of thin air by buying or shorting the equivalent number of shares such that the Delta of those shares is the same as the Delta of the option they wrote to remain Delta-neutral, so if the stock goes up or down their position value doesn’t change - this is called Delta hedging. Furthermore, as the stock price moves up (calls) or down (puts), they’ll need to buy or sell even more of those shares to remain Delta neutral since the Delta will change due to the option’s Gamma - this is called Gamma hedging.

Putting It All Together - How options can be used as weapons of mass destruction against short sellers

Now we have the tools to understand how these two financial concepts put together can make billion-dollar hedge funds go bankrupt. Through Delta and Gamma hedging of market makers, buyers can have the effect of buying shares dozens of times the value they actually spent buying their option; a XYZ 4/20 690c can cost only $100 in premiums but causes the market maker to buy $2000 in the underlying stock to hedge against it. If you get enough retail investors to do this, they'll have the impact of billion-dollar whales on the market despite their small stimulus-check-funded portfolios.
Now, you do this on a stock that is heavily shorted, and with very little institutions actually holding real shares of these - making it harder for brokers to find shares to borrow, and you have yourself a weapon of mass financial destruction capable of making billions of Melvin’s money disappear in a single day and potentially have GME 🚀🚀🚀 to a trillion dollar market cap.
How wallstreetbets Controls the Stock Market
The one thing that’s interesting about all of this is wallstreebet’s unique position in being able to facilitate this weapon of mass financial destruction because

Most rich people or institutions too risk adverse to buy large amounts of out of the money options (unless you're Chamath or Elon)
This can only really happen on stocks that very few institutions (i.e. rich people) actually own, meaning it needs to be held / bought on mass by retail investors
In any other scenario where 1 and 2 happen to be true, this would be classified as market manipulation and be immediately shut down by the SEC

My Positions
wallstreetbets veterans may recognize me as the 🌈🐻 who wrote those long-ass 2000 word essays about how the stock market is in a bubble and loaded up on VIX calls last time you heard from me. Although I still stand by my thesis and stocks like GME, TSLA, and NKLA is just proof that we've reached the euphoria phase of it, I learned my lesson that I'm idiot trying to short it (for exactly the reasons described above) and got the fuck out of my position when VIX shot up back in Sept. Most of my "real money" has since been moved to gold and crypto, but because I'm a degenerate gambler, I still have a bit of money playing with /ES and a calls on highly-shorted stocks with meme-stock potential (i.e. vast majority held by retail investors). Now that I'm busy with work again, I probably won't be posting as frequently as I have had in the past, but you'll see me around from time to time :).

🚀🚀🚀10K MEMBERS 🚀🚀🚀

#SlapTeam January Scorecard Bchzzz

Birds, Bees, Bitcoin? - Simple guide

Disclaimer: I am not a finance professional, I do not have fiduciary duty to you. This is not a financial advice, this is purely for educational and entertainment purposes. If you lose money trading cryptocurrencies, do not hold me accountable.
Cryptocurrencies are like teenage sex, don't expect to talk people out of doing it. So instead of that, we should have a guide for safe and sane gambling plan for cryptocurrencies.
This guide is meant for beginners. You will see other experienced traders commenting in this section, take everyone's advice and comments with grains of salt.
Be very careful when someone is promoting their coin, pump and dump is rampant in cryptocurrencies realm. Play safe!

What coins to invest in?

For beginners, to play safe - Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Understanding how cryptocurrencies work require knowledge of computer science and cryptography, and none of us can likely explain them well and accurate enough in the comments section, so I will just point you to: https://www.luno.com/learn/en/
I am not gonna explain what they do, but rather, why they are my top picks.
Bitcoin's technology is proven. It's the first proven solution of its kind - proof-of-work based value transfer. However, the development has practically stagnated for past few years with little progress.
Ethereum's development is more decentralised and backed by more organisations. There are at least 4 ETH1 clients and 4 ETH2 clients for you to choose from, all built by different teams and companies. It's the first blockchain of its kind - smart contract.
The real kicker of Ethereum is that - it powers almost all the tokens in DeFi realm. Almost all the tokens you see like Uniswap, USD Tether, USD Coin, OmiseGo, HelloGold etc run on Ethereum. Whenever people send those tokens, they must buy and spend ETH. ETH is indispensable from DeFi realm at this point.
Until now, there aren't many altcoins out there that share the same advantages to these two. It pays to invest in chains with first mover advantages.
BTW, don't buy into marketing like "bitcoin killer", "ethereum killer", "more scalable than bitcoin" etc. Do more homework if you want to venture beyond the 2 largest coins. Rather miss out sick gains than getting scammed.

Where do we trade them in Malaysia?

To be safe, use the exchanges approved by Suruhanjaya Sekuriti. Luno is likely your best choice, they have good trading volume and low fees of 0.25% for makers, the fee applies to you if you only post order, not take them.
There are other exchanges you can use, just make sure you check their trading volume, history of being hacked etc: https://www.coingecko.com/en/exchanges

When do we buy and sell them?

Now this... nobody knows for sure, but there are previous data points we can look at and play safe.
There are a few graphs I have bookmarked since the last crash and they have been fairly accurate so far:

For example, you can buy when its below 2x the previous all time high, and start selling slowly bit by bit above that point.
Don't be greedy and hold all the way until the peak, you can't tell where it take a u-turn and crash. Take profit and come back years later. Repeat.

Should we withdraw them to our own wallets?

IMO, if you invest more than RM 10k, do it. Otherwise don't bother.
Sending Bitcoin and Ethers is not free, you need to pay network fees.
During peak hours, the transaction fees can easily surge beyond RM100-200 per transaction, regardless of amount transferred. Ethereum gas fees have reached 500 gwei recently, and I expect it to get a lot worse leading up to the peak.
Sure, leaving them on exchanges may be risky, but big exchanges are getting better at security, blacklisting addresses complicit in hacking.
If you don't hold a lot, maybe it's not worth withdrawing out to your paper wallet, phone wallet, hardware wallet etc.

Why don't diversify into many coins? (Addendum)

Even now, cryptocurrencies are highly correlated assets. Almost all the coins moon and doom together, with some spikes here and there like when Elon Musk tweets Doge.
Cryptocurrencies are volatile and risky enough, try not to take on more unnecessary risks. There are little chance the altcoins you choose will outperform the blue chips. We call them shitcoins.

Support Malaysians

Please use these services:

coingecko.com - the largest independent DeFi aggregators after binance acquisition of coinmarketcap
etherscan.io - The largest Ethereum blockchain explorer

Discuss

Please comments, ask questions, debate with me on what do you disagree or can improve on.
I kinda hope this can become the crypto megathread, seeing the influx of new posts asking the same q about crypto again and again.
Do not share referral codes under broad daylight, mods can ban you.

is crypto trading gambling video

Burn further commented that “crypto trading is a form of gambling. Compulsive gamblers are seeking escape from reality and excitement and they want these on a regular basis. Addiction itself is often passed on through hereditary genes but gambling of any kind is increasingly a learned behaviour that people, especially the young, are coming to, having started often quite innocently, through computer games which progress into global gaming and then into gambling. Cryptocurrency trading Originally Answered: Is trading in cryptocurrency the same as gambling? It’s not but it all depends on how an individual invests his money and time. A better comparison would be between a gambler and a stock investor since the latter is easier to understand and has been well documented for decades. 307 views Trading, whether it is crypto or using fiat, is always a touchy subject as it is estimated that only 1% of the people who trade make any significant amount of money out of it. The one question that always comes up is what the differences are between crypto trading and gambling? Well, the answer to that question is a little more complex than . Many people who just start out either gambling or Crypto Gambling covers bitcoin, altcoin and trading discussions for people new to cryptocurrencies. Along with crypto wallets, gambling in different countries and bitcoin exchanges in different countries. This site is intended for people over the age of 18 that never gamble what they can’t afford to lose. Gambling with digital and virtual currencies. Digital currencies are established forms of crypto logically secured currencies that are traded, and recognised by institutions like the Financial Conduct Authority and HMRC. Bitcoin is the most well-known. Cryptocurrency trading involves exchanging these cryptocurrencies against US dollars. As in the stock market, some people view crypto-trading as an investment opportunity. However, others treat the cryptocurrency trading market like buying and selling high-risk stocks, such as margins and options. It is this “gambling” on the markets that Crypto gambling platforms are everything you have come to expect from traditional gambling sites, albeit with an unconventional business model, whereby users use digital assets like bitcoin to gamble. In other words, users get to gamble with crypto as opposed to fiat currencies utilized in conventional gambling sites. Owing to the proliferation of these solutions, it is safe to say that crypto is somewhat emerging as the obvious choice for the gambling world. Study Links Obsessive Crypto-Trading With Problem Gambling. March 12, 2019. 3097. Share. Facebook. Twitter. ReddIt. Telegram. Pinterest. WhatsApp. Advertisment. Research from Rutgers University has found a link between trading cryptocurrency and compulsive gambling. Apparently, regular gamblers can view cryptocurrency trading as an additional high-risk activity — with a similar rush. Quelle The reality of trading isn’t quite as much of a fairy tale, of course, and there’s been increasing concern over the convergence of crypto trading with online gambling. In 2019, a landmark study by the Center of Gambling Studies at Rutgers School of Social Work uncovered disconcerting evidence of a significant link between problem gambling and frequent crypto trading. Poker. Bitcoin Poker ist eine der beste Entwicklungen der letzten Jahre im Online Poker Bereich. In den Bitcoin Poker Sphären sind noch sehr viele „Fische“ unterwegs, während das Spielerniveau auf den klassischen Poker Seiten mittlerweile deutlich höher als noch vor fünf Jahren ist. Beim Bitcoin und Krypto Poker tummeln sich hingegen unzählige Gambler, die nicht wirklich wissen was

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When you think about it, "Crypto Trading" is just a beautiful synonym of "Gambling"

Study finds connection between gambling and crypto investments: “For some people, trading cryptocurrency is seen as an investment opportunity. But there is an alarming proportion of people who are ‘gambling’ on these cryptocurrency markets as they would gamble on horses or sports or slots.”

@nws0und @coinjunky Trading is a hobby for many, a mix of gambling and video games. I think this may become more a… https://t.co/isVtsaFvay - Crypto Dynamic Info - Whales's

Crypto Exchange Coinone’s Margin Trading is Illegal Gambling: Korean Police

[CCN] - Crypto Exchange Coinone’s Margin Trading is Illegal Gambling: Korean Police

Crypto Exchange Coinone's Margin Trading is Illegal Gambling: Korean Police

Korean Police Allege Coinone's Crypto Margin Trading Is Illegal Gambling

[CoinDesk] - Korean Police Allege Coinone's Crypto Margin Trading Is Illegal Gambling

Is Trading Crypto Currency Gambling

Not another fairy-tale ending - a word of warning for those entering the crypto scene