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“A fortune in fabulous prizes may go to these people today....
“A fortune in fabulous prizes may go to these people today, if they know when The Price Is Right!”
Dah-dah-dah-dah. Dah-dah-dah-dah… I catch myself humming the theme song. I’m such a grandma knitting along to late night gameshow re-runs. But Bob Barker’s good company when you're in the middle of nowhere babysitting. The silence out here is disturbing.
“Rachel Donaldson, come on dowwwn! Yooou’re the next contestant on The Price Is Right!”
I glance up at the TV. Rachel’s jumping and squealing and throwing her hands in the air. I bet she’ll win a new car. God, it’s taking me forever to save for mine. I can hear my mom’s voice in my head: “You need to learn the true value of a dollar.” The only handout that woman gives is unwanted advice.
I set down my knitting needles to stretch my fingers. I have to finish one cat fedora, three dog bandanas and a guinea pig sweater by next Friday. My Etsy shoppers seem to love this stuff (not sure about their pets). But even still, I’d have to sell a million Chihuahua beanies to afford a car.
On screen, Rachel Donaldson’s bidding $1 on a 6-person hot tub. Hmm, seems risky to me. But as mom likes to say, “You have to take risks to get ahead.”
“Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding!”
And once again mom’s right (boo). Rachel’s gamble paid off. She's through to the next round. Her family goes ballistic in the audience, screaming so loud it’s going to blow out the Richardson’s fancy surround sound.
Shit, I should turn the TV down. If I wake up the kids now, I’ll never get them back to sleep. And cranky kids means cranky parents. I need to keep this gig. Turns out babysitting pays way more than my animal couture line. And Tatiana and Julian are pretty easy to watch . Though tonight they seemed in a funk. Barely spoke. Maybe they decided they don't like me.
I stare down at five remotes sitting next to a fat ‘Entertainment Center’ instruction packet. Seriously? I try the volume button and nothing happens. I hit ‘power’. Still no go. Maybe the 'mute' button? It oddly does the trick. Rachel Donaldson is now noiselessly celebrating, her mouth opening and closing like a goldfish, as a plastic Plinko disc lands on a $5,000 payout.
Ahoooga! Ahoooga!
The noise makes me jump. For a split second I think it's coming from the TV. But, no, the volume’s still muted.
Ahoooga! Ahoooga!
It’s outside. Some kind of… honking? I picture a tiny car full of murderous clowns flashing chainsaws and uzis (too many B horror movies with my brother). The Richardson’s neighbors are at least a quarter-mile away, so if I screamed for help, no one would hear. I creep toward the window, a little freaked out. But let’s be real, what blood-thirsty murderer would announce themself with a cartoon horn?
I peer through a crack in the blinds, not wanting whoever it is to see me. It’s dark out, but I spot an old, boxy RV parked on the single-lane country road at the end of the Richardson’s drive. Its brights are on, giving the vehicle a visible aura, as if having landed from outer space. The passenger door is thrown open. I squint and make out a hunched over figure in the driver’s seat hitting the horn.
Ahoooga!
The side door of the RV is open too. Framed inside is the teapot silhouette of a women with big hair piled on top of her head. Hands on her hips, she yells at the figure in the front seat. Probably her husband. He hits the horn again. This is annoying. They're gonna wake the kids. I should go out there and tell them to stop.
Out on the porch I stop a sec. I hate confrontation. But they seem harmless… Definitely not murderous clowns. Just some old timers who probably lost their way on these crazy ass backroads. There are at least three streets with “Pine” in the name around here. Even confuses me.
I decide to be a Good Samaritan and take a few steps down the drive, not wanting to shout too close to the house. “Everything okay?” I holler out to the couple.
Startled, the woman puts her hand to her heart. “Oh, honey. Didn’t see ya there.”
“Sorry,” I apologize. “Didn’t mean to scare you.”
“Oh it’s okay. I’m an old fraidy cat.” The woman remains in silhouette. Just a voice in the dark. “Hate to interrupt your evening. But you see, we’re in a bit of a pickle. I was having Dennis here… wave, Dennis, to the little girl…”
The man in the front seat nods at me. I wince at her use of the word “little.” I may be small for my age, but I’m not a little girl.
The woman rambles on, “I was having him honk the horn to see if anyone was home. Didn’t want to trespass on this fine property. You never know who’s locked and loaded these days. I’m scared of dogs, too, if I’m honest. Been bit more than once and let me tell you, the bite is worse than the bark.” The woman laughs, and I join her. I’m used to laughing at adults’ dumb jokes.
“Are you lost?” I ask. “I can point you to the highway.”
The woman flips on a bug light rigged to the RV and steps down into the neon blue glow. I can see her face now. Makeup caked on. The shadows from her fake lashes like spiders on her cheeks. She’s older. Maybe gram’s age. With dangling turquoise earrings.
“Damn mosquitoes. Nearly sucking me dry.” The woman swats at her neck and checks her palm. “Ooh, got ‘em!” She wipes the guts on her pants. “I’m Marianne by the way. And no, hon, we’re not lost. Not in the literal sense anyway. We’d pulled off a few hours ago to catch a little shuteye, get a little beauty sleep. Dennis set an alarm on his phone, but the bugger ran out of juice. Turns out we no longer have a charger because my hubby here,” Marianne slams her palm on the RV, “let a pretty girl at the last RV park borrow it and never asked for it back! Worse yet, because we overslept, we’re now in danger of losing our spot at tonight’s park.”
Now I’m wishing I’d stayed inside.
“So you see, I desperately need to call ahead to let them know we’re only a couple hours away but have no working phone. You get where I’m going with this, darling?”
I do. But no way am I letting a stranger use my phone.
“I know what you’re thinking,” she says, wagging her finger. “You don’t want a stranger fiddling with your phone. So what if I sweeten the deal? Would five dollars help? It’s one measly phone call. Dennis!” she shouts, without letting me answer. “Bring me the can!”
I watch Dennis reach between the front seats and grab a red Folgers coffee can. He holds it out the passenger window, giving the can a shake. I can hear coins jangling. And it reminds me of my gram hiding “emergency money” in an old ice cream carton in the freezer.
Marianne huffs and shuffles over to her husband. “Thanks for the effort, dear. Always making me come to you,” she barks. “I’ll remember this when someone wants their back scratched tonight.” She snatches the can and pops the top. Crumpled cash falling out as she digs around inside. She chooses a bill and holds it out to me, like offering a treat to a feral cat.
I think on it. Five bucks could buy me a couple skeins of yarn. That’s about three dog sweaters at fifteen dollars a pop. So forty bucks profit, all from a harmless phone call which costs me nothing. “Sure,” I finally reply, handing her my phone… and hope I don't regret it.
“I didn’t catch your name honey,” Marianne says, while slipping me the wrinkly five-dollar bill.
“Delphine,” I answer, then realize I could’ve said any name. Jessica or Sasha or Princess Buttercup. But what’s it matter? They’ll be gone soon.
Marianne disappears with my phone into the RV. They better not take off with it. I listen close and can hear bits and pieces of her conversation with the RV park. It doesn’t sound good. Antsy, I check out Dennis still in the driver’s seat. He’s wearing a fishing vest over his t-shirt, its zillion pockets bulging with who knows what. He dips into one and pulls out a small black comb, running it through his patchy grey hair.
“Where you guys from?” I ask, trying to fill the awkward silence.
Instead of answering, he leans forward and pulls a Red Vine out of a giant plastic container on the dash, offering it to me. I shake my head ‘no’. Never take candy from a stranger.
“Here and there,” he finally replies, before taking a bite of his Red Vine. Smacking as he chews.
“Don’t tease the girl, Dennis,” Marianne scolds, stepping out with my phone. “We’re from a one-horse town in Arizona. Retired this last year after working our fingers to the bone our whole lives. Then set out to travel this great country in old Shitbird here… if you’ll excuse my French. But she’s a real piece of work. Prone to flat tires and flattening squirrels.”
I scan the RV. ‘Shitbird’ sums it up. The outside’s caked in bugs and dust. The passenger mirror is duct taped together. And there’s a dent in the bumper suspiciously shaped like a deer.
Marianne catches me staring. “I know, I know. She's a little worse for wear. You know the saying, some things are like a fine wine, they get better over time? Well that ain’t her.” She laughs, and this time I don’t laugh with her. I’m ready for them to be gone. “Anyway, we’re doing the festival circuit and have come here for your famous Apple Jubilee. I’m sure you know it well.”
I nod, the mention making me cringe. An apple-eating duck nearly took my finger off one year at that kiddie fest. I refuse to go back, even for the deep-fried apple turnovers. Marianne hands me my phone. The cover is smudged from oily fingers and smells of cheap rose perfume. Grrrrross. “Well I better head back inside,” I tell her. “Good luck with the rest of your trip.” I turn to go.
“We could use a pinch of luck, that’s for darn tootin’,” Marianne sighs. “Looks like they gave away our spot.”
I hold my breath, waiting for the next favor.
“You don’t suppose we could stay parked here for a short while? Just until we figure out what to do.” Marianne fusses with her hair, as the blue bug light zaps its first victim. “Would hate to waste gas driving around in circles.”
I’m not sure what to do. It’s not my dream to have them parked here. But can I force them to leave? They’re on a public road. “Yeah. I guess that's fine.” Before Marianne can say anymore, I hurry inside and lock the door. Peeking through the blinds, I watch Dennis shove an armful of stuffed plastic grocery bags into the Richardson’s garbage bin. He makes three of these trips, struggling to pound the last few bags in. Finally, he slams the lid shut, giving the can a good kick, having won the battle.
If I was braver, I’d tell them this wasn’t the county dump. Instead, I check on the kids. Their rooms are quiet and dark. Good, still comatose. It took forever to get Julian to sleep. He kept crying and saying his parents weren’t coming back. Poor little dude. As I leave Tatiana's room, I notice a new pair of ice skates hanging on the back of her door. These kids want something, they get it.
“Watch out!” a voice echoes through the house.
I freeze. My heart pounding.
“… You’re close to losing it all, if you can’t guess the price of this gold-plated Timex wristwatch!”
Duh, idiot. It’s only Bob Barker… But didn't I mute that guy? I hurry into the living room, half expecting to find Marianne there, eating Red Vines on the couch and swatting mosquitos.
“Put your thinking cap on, Tony. You’re playing for a new car,” Bob continues.
Of course the living room’s empty. I mute the TV again, still unable to figure out how to turn it off. I grab my knitting – and the hairs on my neck stand up. My Spidey sense tells me I’m being watched. And sure enough, I spin around to find Mr. Richardson’s face glaring over me.
I stare back at him, only a picture on the wall. Mrs. Richardson stands by her husband in the photo holding a picnic basket. Her hair in a smooth, shiny bob. Julian and Tatiana hold hands amongst a carpet of yellow and red autumn leaves. The kids are grinning ear to ear, but you can tell they’re uncomfortable in the old timey clothes they’ve been forced to wear. I laugh (the kids’ holiday elf costumes were even worse), but notice something odd about the picture. Mr. R’s gone grey. I thought his hair was dark brown but dude must dye it. Even stranger, his eyes are two different colors, one blue, one brown. Which I know isn’t right…
Knock-knock-knock.
I drop the remote. Del – stop being so jumpy. I walk to the front door and peer through the peephole. It's Marianne and her red beehive hair. If I ignore her, maybe she’ll go away. I hold statue-still, trying not to make any noise.
“I can hear you breathing behind there, Delphine,” she says in a singsong voice, bringing goosebumps to my arms. “Don’t be frightened. It’s me. Marianne.”
Ugh, there’s no avoiding this woman. I crack open the door knowing the screen’s latched, creating a barrier between us.
“There you go. Better to talk face-to-face. I promise not to bite.” She lets out a dry, crackly laugh. “I do hate to bother you again, but Dennis has outdone himself this time. Spilled my last bottle of cooking oil all over the Shitbird’s carpet right before I was about to cook him up a plate of Salisbury steak.”
I give a blank stare, wondering if she’s for real right now. They’re cooking dinner?! They should be cooking up a plan of where to sleep tonight. I picture a greasy stovetop and the smell of burning meat and gravy filling the RV.
Marianne inches close to the screen, the tip of her nose grazing it. The heat of her breath assaults me. I take a step back, as she goes on, “I wouldn’t ask to borrow from a complete stranger unless I was desperate. Dennis is lousy with diabetes, god bless him, from all that pop he drank to stay awake on nightshifts. If I don’t feed the man in the next few minutes, he’s bound to slip into a capital ‘C’ coma.”
I flash to the Richardson’s coming home to an ambulance in their driveway. They’d have a heart attack no doubt, afraid one of the kids was hurt. I’d never be asked back to babysit. Maybe they'd tell the whole town, and my other families would ban me too. “I want to help…" I start. “But it’s not my house. It doesn’t seem right to take without asking.”
Marianne nods. “I understand. One-hundred percent. But trust me, no one’s gonna miss a tablespoon of olive oil.” Marianne studies my face. I think she can sense my hesitation. “What about this? I’ll give you ten dollars for it. The oil’s only worth a handful of cents. It’s a heck of a deal. And I bet a young girl like you is saving up for something special. A new dress, perhaps, or a nice pair of earrings…”
I glance down at my ripped jeans and baggy hoodie. Is she throwing shade?
“Well… whad’ya say?” She holds out her hand to shake on it. Her fingers are full of rings. Costume jewelry, I bet.
“Okay,” I answer, leaving her hand hanging. If mom was here she’d say “never trust free money”. But what harm’s a little extra cash?
I keep the screen door locked and head into the Richardson’s kitchen. The pantry is as organized as a supermarket shelf. Tidy rows of healthy kids snacks, protein bars and canisters of dried beans arranged by color. Totally OCD. On the back shelf I spy a row of oils – avocado, sesame, vegetable, walnut and a green one called grapeseed. No olive oil anywhere. Maybe I should give this nutter the cheap stuff and call it a day.
“You alright, darlin’?” Marianne hollers through the screen. She rattles the door, trying to open it. “Unlatch this darn thingamajig, and I can come help ya.”
I ignore her and grab the vegetable oil, since its plastic bottle looks the least expensive. I pour a large spoonful in a Dixie cup, doubting she’ll even know the difference. Back at the door, Marianne takes the oil and sniffs it. For a second, I worry I’ve been caught. But she smiles, lifts her shirt (umm, is she gonna flash me?) and unzips a nude colored, sweat-stained money belt. I try not to make a face as she hands me a limp ten dollar bill. The money’s warm and moist.
But hey, money’s money.
“Pleasure doing business with you, Ms. Delphine,” Marianne says, zipping the money belt closed and tucking in her purple bedazzled blouse. “Could I interest you in a plate? My kids used to say my Salisbury steak is the best on the block. Course, they’re all grown now. Don’t need me… Except when they need help paying their rent, that is.” She’s silent for a moment. Sad maybe. “Would make me mighty happy to feed you,” she adds, eager.
“No thanks, ma’am. I already ate.” Not trying to hurt her feelings, but no way am I eating a plate of her Salisbury steak.
Marianne frowns. “Your loss then,” she huffs, turning on her heels and strutting back to the RV. I swear I see her toss the oil into a bush. But it’s hard to make out much in the dark.
I curl up on the couch and get back to my Chihuahua beanie. The Price Is Right cuts to an ad for our local car dealership. The TV’s still on mute, but I can hear the jingle in my head: “Don’t waste your time going online. Come see Gervis for customer service…” The owner, Gervis McNally, rides a horse past the small electric car I’m saving for. I picture no longer taking the bus to school in the mornings or relying on my parents for rides everywhere. I could grab a peppermint mocha with double whip whenever I want. Purrrre freedom.
Bob Barker’s back now greeting a new contestant on stage. I dig into my backpack for a skein of yellow yarn, when the damn TV unmutes again. Did I sit on the remote? I reach under me to check, when Bob turns to camera.
“Check the kid’s bedroom, Delphine.”
My heart stops. Bob Barker’s talking to me.
“Because you’re about to win a 4-piece children’s bedroom set,” Bob exclaims, as the show’s snappy music fires up.
I laugh, relieved. Hello, I’m not the only Delphine in the world. I find the remote tucked between the couch cushions and mute the set again. It sounds nuts, but I can’t shake the idea Bob was talking to me. Maybe I should go check on the kids. Doesn’t hurt.
I peek in on Tatiana first. Even though she’s seven-going-on-thirty and mouthy as my cousin Sheila, she’s sleeping like a baby with her thumb in her mouth. I sneak into Julian’s room next and am hit with a gust of chilly air. His race car curtains rise and fall, as though breathing. I swear the window wasn’t open when I tucked him in. Right? I creep across the wood floor, trying not to step on the ruins of a Lego castle. I reach to close the window, and then I see it. A large shadow moving along the grass in the backyard.
Something's out there.
It feels like I'm sinking into the carpet. Totally spooked. I hear Julian stir and know I’ve got to check it out. I’m in charge of these kids after all. One step at a time, Del. Go to the kitchen. Flip on the back porch light. And have a look.
I make my way there and peer through the sliding glass door. The backyard is empty. Thank god. Maybe it was a deer. Or a coyote. Or a freakin' tree blowing in the wind… I should make a cup of cocoa and chill the hell out.
I grab the kettle from the stove, then freeze. There’s a noise behind me. On the back porch. I don’t want to turn around. Because the sliding doors are shaking. As if a burglar’s trying to break in. A scream rises in my throat.
“Delphiiiinnneee.” Marianne’s voice is both welcome and disturbing. “I tried the front door, but you must have cotton stuck in your ears.” She taps on the slider like a woodpecker, over and over. “Delphine? Delphine! I’m lookin’ right at you. Turn around.”
My body tenses, and I spin around to face her. Through the glass, I see the expression on Marianne’s face. She’s almost… angry. Or at least irritated. Her smile stretched too wide, reminding me of a patient in a dentist’s chair with their mouth clamped open.
I try to be civil. “I don’t know if you should be back there,” I tell her. “The kids’ parents will be home any minute.”
“The Richardsons?” Marianne asks, as if they’re old friends. “You don’t gotta worry your pretty little head about them.”
It creeps me out she knows their name. But then I remember the red hand-painted “Richardson Family” on the mailbox. Even then, my gut’s telling me something’s not right with these two. I’d call the sheriff, but I’m the one who said they could stay. It’s like with vampires – let them in, and you’re gonna get bitten. “I think you should go,” I say, my tone more forceful.
Marianne puts her hands on her hips. “Trust me, hon. We want to get out of your hair. In fact, we were about to take off when Shitbird overheated somethin’ awful. Like a case of herpes, this keeps cropping up at the most inopportune times. All we need is a splash of water to cool the engine off.” I can tell she’s gearing for another ridiculous ask. “I peeped a hose out front. Mind if we use it? I’ve already slipped fifteen dollars under the front door for your troubles. To help pad that nest egg of yours.”
She winks at me through the glass, and I feel I’m making a deal with the devil. But again, I do need the cash. The couple’s a bit strange, but I'm probably overreacting. Babysitting paranoia. “Go ahead,” I tell them.
“Eureka.” Marianne claps her hands together. “You’re an absolute doll. But there is one other thing…”
Of course there is.
“Your hose, what is it? A 25-footer? That ain’t gonna reach our engine. I’m sure you won’t mind if we pull into the driveway?”
Actually I do mind. “Well--”
“We’ll be done in a jiffy,” she interrupts before I can protest. “Scouts honor.” And she’s gone. Moving faster than seems possible for a lady her age. Although, maybe she’s one of those Zumba enthusiasts you see at the community center, like my great Aunt Bertie.
Through the living room blinds, I watch the RV roll up the Richardson’s gravel driveway, its flabby wheels kicking up rocks. The brakes squeal to a stop. And soon I hear the low rumble of water moving through the pipes in the walls with each turn of the garden spigot.
As my eyes follow the water’s path through the house, I glance again at the Richardson’s silly family portrait. Huh. Were Mrs. R’s fingers always covered in all those rings? Doesn’t really seem her style. My mind goes to Marianne’s costume jewelry crusted fingers. The resemblance gives me the chills. I notice, too, for the first time the way Mr. R clutches his kids’ shoulders. His grip too tight.
“Jesus H, Dennis, watch where you’re pointing that snake! You’re gonna get me all wet,” I hear Marianne yell from outside, followed by her crackly laugh.
Through the blinds, I see the Shitbird with its hood propped open. Dennis cools off the RV’s engine with the Richardson’s green garden hose. I can’t spot Marianne and wonder if she's snooping around the backyard again. But then there she is, exiting the RV with a large cardboard box. She drops the box with a thud and clutches her back. I swear I can hear the cracking of her spine from here. I try to make out what’s written on the box. R-I-C-H… But I can’t read the rest. Did they steal a package from the Richardsons?
I have a sudden terrible itch on my back but can’t seem to reach it. I think of using my knitting needles. That would do it. But I don't dare walk away from the window.
“Pretty yourself while you’re at it, old man,” Marianne orders Dennis. “You smell of liver and onions. We gotta look presentable. Make a good impression.” She throws him a rag, and I watch him bend over, spraying the hose into his limp greying hair. He straightens, shakes his head and slicks his wet hair back with his pocket comb.
I turn my focus to Marianne. She's checking herself out in the RV’s duct taped side mirror, picking Salisbury gristle from her teeth with a utility knife. Like some sort of thug. She applies a good five coats of fuchsia lipstick and puckers her lips.
It's as if they're getting ready for something. Maybe it's Bingo night at the RV park.
The blue bug zapper flickers. The itch on my back is screaming now. I’m about to go grab those needles, when Marianne plucks her red beehive hairdo right off her head. I’m shocked to see her bald underneath. The skin loose and blue in the light. Dennis hands her a new wig. She carefully puts on the shiny brown bob and smiles at her reflection in the side mirror, “Well aren't you a sight to see.” She tucks a stray hair behind her ear. “Come on, Dennis, it's time."
I clutch at my back. My skin is burning. As though being bitten by a million red fire ants. I grab the blinds, ripping a hole in them, as my knees nearly give out. And all at once, two heads snap toward me in eerie unison, like a pair of junkyard dogs. Marianne and Dennis are watching me.
I have a very bad feeling.
I run from the window to call mom. She’ll know what to do. And then I see it. Under recent calls. The last person dialed was dad - not a random RV park. Marianne lied to me. Her whole conversation was fake. Holy crap. What are they going to do to us? Panicking, I hit the emergency button, but nothing happens. Instead, a text pops up from an unknown number: “DON’T BE SCARED HONEY. WE’VE GOT MORE MONEY.”
Knock-knock-knock.
They’re at the door. I go stiff. “Let us in, darling,” Marianne coos. “We ain’t gonna hurt you. We’re here to relieve you.” Her voice through the door sounds different. Not just muffled. But higher pitched. Almost breaking.
“Come on down!” the TV blares out. “You’re the next contestant on The Price Is Right!”
The volume’s so loud it’s as if I’m right there in the gameshow. I turn to face the screen. And there they are on the TV set. Dennis, gaunt and expressionless, sitting in the studio audience, while Marianne jumps for joy in her brunette bob and fuchsia lipstick. She takes off at a sprint through the audience, racing to the podium. In it to win it.
This can’t be...
I hear keys jingling in the front door and snap back to reality. Thank god. The Richardsons are home. I don’t even care if they’re mad about the RV. I just want them here. They’ll know what to do. The knob turns. The door creaks open.
And Marianne and Dennis walk in. Their clothes neat and tidy and stylish. Totally different than before – and yet off. Like a costume that doesn’t fit. I scream and grab my knitting needles, holding them out in front of me like spears. “Stop, or I’m calling the cops,” I shout, trying to sound grown up, when inside I’m still a kid who wants to crawl under the covers and hide.
Marianne ignores me, pointing to the TV. “Jeepers, Dennis, Delphine’s watching our old episode. Remember, dear? We were on one helluva winning streak. Celebrated that night with lobster and dirty martinis at the hotel bar. Took home enough furniture and bric-a-brac to redecorate the entire house.” She sighs, nostalgic. Then sets her sights on me. “Now, now, put the needles down, Delphine. Violence isn’t the answer. This will be easier if you give in.”
I swallow my fear and try to think, not loosening my grip on my weapons, pathetic as they are. I yell, “The Richardson’s will be home any minute! Get out, and I won’t tell them you trespassed!”
Marianne and Dennis exchange a look and laugh. Her fuchsia lipstick smeared on her teeth, she replies in a motherly tone, “Oh honey… we’re the Richardsons now. Don’t I look good in her dress? It’s a smidge tight, if I’m honest. But thankfully Dennis enjoys a bosom buster.” She leans into Dennis, kissing him. He lets out a low moan and grabs her hand. One by one he inserts her fingers into his mouth, sucking off her costume jewelry rings and swallowing them.
Tears roll down my face. “What have you done with the Richardsons?” Marianne stares at me with pity. “You freaks, tell me what you’ve done!” I yell louder.
“Mom? Dad?” Julian appears from the darkened hallway in his solar system pajamas.
I race to stand between him and the deranged couple. “Don’t come in here,” I order him. “Go back to your room.” But it’s too late. Julian runs to Marianne, wrapping his arms around her. I lurch forward, ripping him away. He struggles in my arms, crying, and breaks free, hiding himself behind Marianne.
“It’s okay, bubba. Mommy’s home,” Marianne soothes. “Delphine’s tired is all. She didn’t mean to hurt you.” Marianne pats the boy on the head, flashing me a Cheshire grin. And for the first time, I glimpse three or four gold teeth in the back of her mouth. As sharp as a wolf’s.
Tatiana steps into the room, rubbing sleep from her eyes. No, no, no, get out of here kid. Run! “Mom, what’s going on? Why are you guys being so loud?” she asks, annoyed we woke her. Her gaze moves from the couple to the threat of the knitting needles in my hands. Her expression changes. Tatiana’s scared. Not of them, though. Of me.
Dennis bends his lanky frame to make himself the height of the children. “Daddy will tuck you back in,” he tells them, his voice surprisingly warm. “Momma needs to pay the babysitter.” He grabs the kids by the hand and leads them down the hall toward their rooms. I want to chase after them, but my feet won’t budge. These lunatics are not your parents!
I need proof. I glance over at the family portrait. But the Richardsons I know are gone from the picture. In their place are Marianne and Dennis, posing with the kids in the same red and yellow carpet of leaves. Just another happy family.
“Does forty cover tonight,” Marianne asks, handing me two crisp twenty dollar bills. As if this were the most normal exchange in the world. “I know we’re back early. I do hope the kids weren’t too much trouble. I’ll have Dennis pull the car around to give you a ride home.”
I don’t answer. I can’t even process what she’s saying. Instead, I watch the Marianne on TV scream in delight. She’s won the final Showcase. Next to her on stage stand her unlucky competitors. The Richardsons. The REAL Richardsons. They’ve lost it all. And Marianne is going home with a new-
“Fully equipped recreational vehicle for an all-expenses paid tour of the great USofA!” Bob Barker gestures to a rising curtain. Revealing a shiny new Shitbird.
Marianne walks over to me. Her breath hot on my skin again, she whispers, “Don’t worry. You won’t remember any of this tomorrow. Of course, we’ll still need a good babysitter, too.” She winks. “And we do pay well.”
If I could escape, I would. But this all seems inevitable.
Fated.
Marianne sets a hand tenderly on my shoulder. “You’ll have that new car in no time, dear. The one you’ve been saving so hard for.”
I’m still glued to the TV set. A new episode of the gameshow has started. The theme song along with it. Dah-dah-dah-dah. Dah-dah-dah-dah. Bob Barker stands on stage. Skinny mic in hand. He looks into the camera… right at me… opening his mouth to deliver the good news.
“Delphine McDonald, come on dowwwn!”
I smile.
“A fortune in fabulous prizes awaits… as you’re the next contestant on The Price Is Right!”
I have a very good feeling.
submitted by drkmode6 to nosleep [link] [comments]
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 30th, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the
/politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to
register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the
FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Several polls are in the field, so we won't have a full picture of the field until next week when more are expected to be released. Until then, here are the polls since August 16th.
Election Predictions
Prognosticators
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
- Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
- Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
- Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
- Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
- RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
- Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO
Polling Models
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
- FiveThirtyEight - after months of work, the model is live! 538's team of analysts have put together a beast of a forecast for 2020. It runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
- Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
- JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
- The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
- Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
- Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
- Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work.
Predictit and
Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although
RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (September 2nd, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the
/politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to
register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the
FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
With the conclusion of both major parties’ nominating conventions, pollsters scrambled into the field to conduct polls of swing states and the national race. The result has been a slew of high quality pollsters releasing their numbers on Wednesday as well as today, which paint a picture of the electorate right after the candidates are expected to have received a temporary
convention bounce.
Election Predictions
Prognosticators
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
- Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
- Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
- Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
- Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
- RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
- Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO
Polling Models
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
- FiveThirtyEight - 538's runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
- Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
- JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
- The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
- Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
- Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
- Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work.
Predictit and
Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although
RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 16, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the
/politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to
register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the
FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
This is likely to be one of the last clear snapshots of polling until at least mid-September. Historically speaking, the party conventions impart a statistically significant 'bump' in candidates' poll numbers. This
convention bounce averages around 5 points for candidates (though some candidates have far surpassed this number), but the trend of high bounces has seen a decline in
recent elections. With increased coverage of each party during their respective conventions (DNC: August 17-20, RNC: August 24-27), and this year's conventions taking place in a mostly-remote setting, it is hard to predict how large or any impact on the polls will be.
Election Predictions
Prognosticators
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
- Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
- Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
- Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
- Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
- RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
- Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO
Polling Models
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
- FiveThirtyEight - after months of work, the model is live! 538's team of analysts have put together a beast of a forecast for 2020. It runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
- Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
- JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
- The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
- Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
- Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
- Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work.
Predictit and
Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although
RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (Aug 9, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the
/politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to
register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the
FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Election Predictions
Prognosticators
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
- Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
- Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
- Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
- Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
- RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
- Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO
Polling Models
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
- FiveThirtyEight - this model isn't active yet (though Nate's been sharing some results from it, so it may be coming out soonTM ), but it's the original model from Nate Silver that debuted in 2008 and really kicked off this genre of race prognostication. For now, here's the polling aggregates that they've set up in lieu of a now-cast (which is likely not returning to the model this year). Will likely also include Senate and House projections like in past years.
- Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
- JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
- The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
- Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
- Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
- Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work.
Predictit and
Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although
RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
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